NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	80		Excitement	8.9 [146]		MVP	Kyle Korver (ATL): +26.6%
Atlanta Hawks	83		Comeback	2.7 [303]		LVP	Elton Brand (ATL): -21.7%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Greg Smith	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	2	100%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Howard	-0.01	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.06	-0.07	-0.00	11	62%	0.10	1	-0.11	2	50%	-0.01
Omri Casspi	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Terrence Jones	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.02	10	30%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ronnie Brewer	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
James Harden	-0.07	0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.16,0.05,-0.07	0.03	-0.11	-0.00	14	60%	0.09	5	-0.16	14	79%	-0.00
Donatas Motiejunas	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	0.00	5	40%	0.00	2	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Brooks	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.17,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,-0.11	0.04	-0.16	-0.01	9	65%	0.15	2	-0.25	2	0%	-0.09
Jeremy Lin	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,0,0,-0.16,-0.12	-0.04	-0.11	-0.02	8	55%	0.09	4	-0.21	4	100%	0.05
Francisco Garcia	-0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.10	-0.09	-0.00	7	14%	-0.14	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kyle Korver	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.03,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.05,0,0,-0.06,0.1,0.1,0.27	0.27	0.10	0.16	-0.00	11	77%	0.37	3	-0.10	4	100%	0.09
Mike Scott	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.09	0.02	0.01	10	70%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shelvin Mack	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.02	-0.01	7	50%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Louis Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.01	0.00	7	43%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeMarre Carroll	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.14,-0.14,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.06	0.04	-0.00	9	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Pero Antic	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.12	-0.01	-0.03	8	25%	-0.02	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Paul Millsap	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.06,0.06,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.13	-0.13	0.00	-0.15	-0.02	18	51%	0.01	3	-0.15	3	67%	-0.01
Jeff Teague	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.03,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.10	-0.12	-0.02	12	27%	-0.16	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Elton Brand	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.22	-0.10	-0.12	-0.00	4	0%	-0.08	2	-0.13	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.4	2.4	26.8	14.8	26.5	2.4	39.6	134.7
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU -1.0%

ATL +3.5%

ATL +3.8%

ATL +38.7%

ATL +4.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	ATL	NBA	HOU	ATL	NBA
this game	16.0	16.2	15.1	88.9	93.3	105.2
season	14.3	14.8		109.5	103.8
opponent	15.3	15.2		104.7	105.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	15.2	19.1	17.2	12.9	16.0
ATL	17.7	16.1	13.5	17.8	16.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ronnie Brewer	45	45	0.01	-0.51	0.53	-0.05	2	-5	7	16.8	15.1	1.64	16.2	16.3	-0.09
Omri Casspi	12	12	-0.03	-0.47	0.43	-0.03	0	-3	3	13.6	16.3	-2.74	16.4	16.2	0.22
Terrence Jones	47	47	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	-0.07	0	-3	3	18.0	13.7	4.32	16.3	16.1	0.20
Dwight Howard	68	68	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.37	7	-10	17	15.8	16.5	-0.66	17.5	12.1	5.40
Donatas Motiejunas	16	15	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.07	-6	3	-9	15.9	16.0	-0.02	10.9	17.3	-6.36
Jeremy Lin	72	72	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.33	2	-5	7	15.9	16.1	-0.19	17.0	12.9	4.13
Greg Smith	22	20	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.00	-10	7	-17	16.5	15.8	0.66	12.6	17.3	-4.61
James Harden	70	71	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.45	3	-6	9	15.5	17.7	-2.24	16.6	14.6	2.09
Francisco Garcia	45	44	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.32	-5	2	-7	15.0	16.9	-1.82	16.3	16.2	0.09
Aaron Brooks	53	51	-0.60	0.10	-0.70	-0.37	-8	5	-13	15.5	16.7	-1.22	15.6	17.0	-1.35

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Elton Brand	47	45	0.70	-0.20	0.90	0.29	14	-11	25	15.6	16.9	-1.33	16.0	15.9	0.13
Paul Millsap	57	57	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.52	1	2	-1	16.1	16.4	-0.23	16.8	14.6	2.18
Louis Williams	48	49	0.51	-0.01	0.53	-0.01	18	-15	33	14.7	18.0	-3.29	16.3	15.5	0.81
Jeff Teague	59	59	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.40	0	3	-3	16.6	15.4	1.24	16.2	15.5	0.72
DeMarre Carroll	61	61	0.33	0.17	0.17	0.51	-6	9	-15	16.7	15.3	1.37	16.0	15.8	0.24
Kyle Korver	69	70	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.33	-6	9	-15	16.9	13.9	3.00	15.6	17.1	-1.47
Shelvin Mack	30	31	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.01	3	0	3	15.4	16.6	-1.24	15.5	16.2	-0.72
Mike Scott	36	37	-0.04	0.54	-0.59	-0.10	2	1	1	15.9	16.4	-0.47	15.8	16.1	-0.25
Pero Antic	38	41	-0.20	0.70	-0.91	0.12	-11	14	-25	17.4	15.4	2.04	14.9	16.8	-1.93

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.36,0.32,0.31,0.34,0.33,0.37,0.37,0.4,0.34,0.34,0.3,0.36,0.34,0.38,0.42,0.41,0.34,0.29,0.31,0.33,0.44,0.49,0.41,0.31,0.31,0.42,0.39,0.32,0.38,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.7,0.72,0.62,0.71,0.77,0.83,0.6,0.61,0.62,0.28,0.34,0.58,1
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 103, OKC 107	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.42,0.38,0.35,0.37,0.29,0.32,0.31,0.29,0.25,0.32,0.24,0.28,0.27,0.29,0.35,0.39,0.36,0.39,0.33,0.33,0.36,0.5,0.48,0.54,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.41,0.48,0.56,0.52,0.66,0.57,0.57,0.8,0.73,0.79,0.88,0.6,0.53,0.46,0.32,0.58,1	90.8%
TOR 97, MIL 107	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.44,0.39,0.37,0.3,0.31,0.27,0.32,0.3,0.34,0.28,0.28,0.33,0.35,0.29,0.35,0.34,0.31,0.31,0.23,0.39,0.46,0.42,0.46,0.45,0.39,0.29,0.18,0.28,0.31,0.37,0.33,0.36,0.62,0.7,0.82,0.8,0.68,0.64,0.6,0.53,0.53,0.29,0.23,0.85,1	89.9%
ORL 100, MIL 107	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.47,0.49,0.4,0.41,0.41,0.37,0.31,0.34,0.35,0.4,0.42,0.32,0.29,0.26,0.22,0.17,0.22,0.26,0.28,0.3,0.46,0.4,0.34,0.33,0.45,0.55,0.55,0.44,0.41,0.52,0.61,0.68,0.66,0.74,0.79,0.83,0.73,0.74,0.76,0.73,0.55,0.29,0.55,0.58,1	89.9%