NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	100		Excitement	8.9 [162]		MVP	Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL): +28.1%
Milwaukee Bucks	107		Comeback	5.3 [468]		LVP	Michael Carter-Williams (MIL): -16.8%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mario Hezonja	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.12,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.07	0.10	-0.00	7	69%	0.17	0	0.00	2	100%	0.04
Victor Oladipo	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.13	0.10	0.03	-0.00	7	72%	0.24	3	-0.10	11	91%	0.05
Evan Fournier	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.16,0.16,0.28,0.28,0.18,0.09,0.09	0.09	-0.00	-0.01	11	62%	0.09	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Elfrid Payton	0.04	0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.01	0.00	5	73%	0.09	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.01
Jason Smith	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.00	3	67%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Channing Frye	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	3	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Gordon	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.01	-0.04	0.02	9	41%	-0.07	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.08
Tobias Harris	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08	-0.05	-0.02	0.01	12	42%	-0.03	2	-0.04	7	43%	-0.08
Nikola Vucevic	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,0.05,-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	-0.00	19	40%	-0.05	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Shabazz Napier	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.05	-0.06	-0.01	4	37%	-0.04	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Giannis Antetokounmpo	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.28	0.28	0.15	0.13	0.00	16	76%	0.33	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.00
Jerryd Bayless	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,0.07,0.07,0.26	0.26	0.03	0.23	0.01	9	52%	0.26	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.03
Jabari Parker	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.04	0.09	0.00	8	75%	0.21	3	-0.08	4	75%	-0.01
Khris Middleton	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.02,0.02,0.18,0.09	0.09	0.10	0.01	0.02	14	64%	0.15	2	-0.06	11	100%	0.13
Johnny O'Bryant	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
John Henson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rashad Vaughn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Greg Monroe	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	0.03	-0.08	0.01	15	55%	0.00	2	-0.06	8	87%	0.00
Michael Carter-Williams	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.12	-0.06	-0.01	8	28%	-0.08	3	-0.09	2	50%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.7	1.8	31.0	14.8	30.3	2.3	36.5	139.5
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +24.1%

MIL +15.0%

MIL +8.5%

ORL -2.1%

MIL +4.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	MIL	NBA	ORL	MIL	NBA
this game	16.6	15.0	14.9	109.9	117.6	105.1
season	14.6	14.8		103.6	102.8
opponent	15.3	14.9		107.2	105.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	17.7	18.0	15.2	15.9	16.6
MIL	14.4	14.7	14.2	16.9	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mario Hezonja	31	31	0.11	-0.61	0.72	0.05	2	-9	11	16.2	16.9	-0.72	17.2	13.9	3.36
Jason Smith	21	21	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	0.00	-2	-5	3	14.3	17.3	-3.00	16.1	14.7	1.41
Elfrid Payton	45	45	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	0.04	-6	-1	-5	17.6	15.7	1.95	14.6	15.5	-0.90
Tobias Harris	45	47	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	0.00	-6	-1	-5	16.1	17.2	-1.13	14.5	15.5	-1.03
Aaron Gordon	69	69	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.12	-2	-5	3	17.1	15.0	2.10	15.3	14.0	1.33
Channing Frye	21	21	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.08	-5	-2	-3	15.6	16.9	-1.32	13.9	15.4	-1.50
Shabazz Napier	46	46	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.33	-1	-6	5	15.7	17.6	-1.95	15.5	14.6	0.90
Evan Fournier	50	49	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.33	-3	-4	1	16.4	16.9	-0.53	14.9	15.2	-0.33
Nikola Vucevic	68	68	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	-0.40	-1	-6	5	17.7	13.3	4.40	15.1	14.9	0.19
Victor Oladipo	59	58	-0.63	0.13	-0.76	-0.31	-11	4	-15	16.8	16.3	0.55	13.9	16.9	-2.93

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Giannis Antetokounmpo	74	74	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.16	16	-9	25	14.5	17.3	-2.81	16.4	17.9	-1.53
Khris Middleton	71	71	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.20	11	-4	15	14.0	18.7	-4.79	16.1	18.7	-2.64
Greg Monroe	59	57	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.50	-3	10	-13	16.5	12.3	4.11	16.5	16.9	-0.39
Michael Carter-Williams	69	69	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.23	4	3	1	15.6	13.1	2.47	17.4	14.2	3.24
Jerryd Bayless	57	59	0.32	0.18	0.13	0.37	-2	9	-11	15.4	14.4	1.00	15.9	18.0	-2.15
Johnny O'Bryant	20	19	0.30	0.20	0.11	0.13	6	1	5	15.8	14.8	1.01	17.2	16.5	0.66
John Henson	32	34	0.09	0.41	-0.32	-0.20	10	-3	13	12.3	16.5	-4.11	16.9	16.5	0.39
Rashad Vaughn	13	12	-0.05	0.55	-0.61	0.03	-3	10	-13	16.2	14.8	1.33	15.2	16.9	-1.69
Jabari Parker	60	60	-0.06	0.56	-0.63	0.05	-4	11	-15	15.3	14.4	1.00	17.6	14.7	2.97

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.47,0.49,0.4,0.41,0.41,0.37,0.31,0.34,0.35,0.4,0.42,0.32,0.29,0.26,0.22,0.17,0.22,0.26,0.28,0.3,0.46,0.4,0.34,0.33,0.45,0.55,0.55,0.44,0.41,0.52,0.61,0.68,0.66,0.74,0.79,0.83,0.73,0.74,0.76,0.73,0.55,0.29,0.55,0.58,1
Game		Similarity Score
NOH 95, LAC 99	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.5,0.49,0.5,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.4,0.31,0.4,0.4,0.36,0.32,0.3,0.25,0.27,0.26,0.27,0.24,0.25,0.25,0.33,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.45,0.42,0.52,0.58,0.52,0.62,0.52,0.56,0.56,0.66,0.66,0.79,0.76,0.77,0.69,0.59,0.47,0.47,0.36,0.15,0.42,1	90.2%
SEA 91, DET 95	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.36,0.38,0.39,0.36,0.34,0.26,0.24,0.24,0.25,0.3,0.38,0.36,0.38,0.33,0.35,0.35,0.3,0.24,0.28,0.3,0.41,0.49,0.46,0.55,0.61,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.65,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.68,0.58,0.66,0.67,0.76,0.85,0.74,0.71,0.66,0.45,0.29,0.43,0.42,1	90.1%
TOR 109, MIN 115	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.48,0.45,0.43,0.4,0.37,0.4,0.38,0.46,0.47,0.45,0.4,0.35,0.42,0.41,0.34,0.31,0.26,0.28,0.25,0.27,0.27,0.25,0.35,0.45,0.52,0.55,0.65,0.48,0.37,0.52,0.64,0.66,0.66,0.68,0.62,0.77,0.92,0.88,0.73,0.53,0.37,0.69,0.84,1	90.1%