NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	109		Excitement	8.0 [268]		MVP	Karl-Anthony Towns (MIN): +51.1%
Minnesota Timberwolves	115		Comeback	3.4 [466]		LVP	Jeff Teague (MIN): -15.4%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kyle Lowry	0.40	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.27,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.28,0.35,0.35,0.42,0.42,0.47,0.4	0.29	0.13	0.02	25	70%	0.40	0	0.00	7	86%	0.05
DeMar DeRozan	0.14	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.15	-0.03	0.16	-0.01	16	56%	0.22	5	-0.08	4	100%	0.03
Delon Wright	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.05	0.09	-0.00	9	50%	0.14	0	0.00	6	100%	0.06
Fred VanVleet	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.06	0.07	0.00	2	100%	0.15	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.00
Jakob Poeltl	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	-0.01	0.00	3	100%	0.06	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Serge Ibaka	0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	-0.04	-0.02	11	59%	0.03	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Lucas Nogueira	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
OG Anunoby	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.01	0.00	6	58%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
CJ Miles	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.07	-0.04	-0.00	7	21%	-0.09	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jonas Valanciunas	-0.12	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.04	-0.08	-0.01	1	0%	-0.10	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Pascal Siakam	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.09	-0.05	-0.00	3	0%	-0.06	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Karl-Anthony Towns	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.07,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.51,0.51	0.51	0.20	0.32	0.01	7	96%	0.53	1	-0.02	9	89%	0.04
Marcus Georges-Hunt	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.11	0.11	-0.01	0.11	-0.01	10	43%	0.11	0	0.00	8	62%	-0.05
Gorgui Dieng	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.05	0.05	0.00	6	75%	0.12	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Taj Gibson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.07	0.02	0.01	8	64%	0.08	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.01
Tyus Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	-0.01	-0.00	5	75%	0.10	2	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Shabazz Muhammad	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.02	-0.00	4	44%	0.02	0	0.00	8	62%	-0.04
Andrew Wiggins	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.11,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.13,-0.13,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.06	-0.04	0.03	21	60%	0.16	4	-0.17	6	100%	0.03
Nemanja Bjelica	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	9	42%	-0.01	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Jeff Teague	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.22,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.14	-0.02	-0.01	11	21%	-0.11	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.3	2.5	29.1	1.7	34.1	1.7	39.0	131.4
league avg	25.1	2.3	28.6	15.0	27.2	2.3	32.6	134.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIN +21.7%

MIN +1.3%

MIN +28.4%

TOR -3.3%

MIN +1.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	MIN	NBA	TOR	MIN	NBA
this game	14.6	14.9	14.7	111.2	118.6	107.5
season	14.6	15.3		112.7	111.8
opponent	14.4	14.8		110.2	105.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	14.8	15.0	15.4	13.3	14.6
MIN	14.0	14.4	13.4	18.2	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Lucas Nogueira	23	23	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	-0.13	3	-9	12	16.0	14.2	1.73	12.7	15.6	-2.84
OG Anunoby	38	39	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	0.01	-4	-2	-2	14.8	14.5	0.34	13.3	16.0	-2.63
Kyle Lowry	69	72	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.27	5	-11	16	14.6	14.8	-0.18	14.4	16.2	-1.80
Pascal Siakam	40	37	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	0.00	-5	-1	-4	13.9	15.1	-1.15	14.8	15.0	-0.24
Jonas Valanciunas	21	24	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.22	1	-7	8	13.7	14.9	-1.17	17.4	14.1	3.33
Fred VanVleet	28	25	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.13	-4	-2	-2	15.7	14.2	1.46	15.9	14.6	1.36
Serge Ibaka	66	67	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.25	0	-6	6	14.9	14.1	0.80	14.8	15.2	-0.47
CJ Miles	33	32	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	-0.12	-5	-1	-4	13.9	15.0	-1.14	14.6	15.0	-0.42
DeMar DeRozan	70	70	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.23	-3	-3	0	14.4	15.1	-0.71	14.7	15.4	-0.69
Jakob Poeltl	45	43	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.01	-12	6	-18	14.8	14.5	0.27	15.0	14.8	0.21
Delon Wright	57	53	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.27	-6	0	-6	14.6	14.7	-0.09	16.6	12.8	3.82

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Taj Gibson	83	82	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.31	7	-1	8	14.5	17.3	-2.78	14.7	14.1	0.61
Jeff Teague	70	68	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.30	5	1	4	14.1	16.9	-2.75	14.8	14.3	0.53
Marcus Georges-Hunt	57	59	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.38	1	5	-4	16.5	12.7	3.80	13.8	15.8	-2.02
Shabazz Muhammad	22	24	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.14	7	-1	8	15.6	14.7	0.94	14.7	14.6	0.16
Karl-Anthony Towns	55	56	0.31	0.19	0.13	0.31	0	6	-6	15.1	14.6	0.51	14.8	14.4	0.36
Gorgui Dieng	42	42	0.19	0.31	-0.13	0.01	6	0	6	14.6	15.1	-0.51	14.4	14.8	-0.36
Andrew Wiggins	75	74	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.19	-1	7	-8	14.7	15.6	-0.94	14.6	14.7	-0.16
Nemanja Bjelica	53	55	0.08	0.42	-0.34	-0.01	3	3	0	14.1	15.9	-1.75	15.3	13.7	1.62
Tyus Jones	28	30	0.06	0.44	-0.38	-0.00	2	4	-2	16.3	14.3	1.99	14.3	14.8	-0.53

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.48,0.45,0.43,0.4,0.37,0.4,0.38,0.46,0.47,0.45,0.4,0.35,0.42,0.41,0.34,0.31,0.26,0.28,0.25,0.27,0.27,0.25,0.35,0.45,0.52,0.55,0.65,0.48,0.37,0.52,0.64,0.66,0.66,0.68,0.62,0.77,0.92,0.88,0.73,0.53,0.37,0.69,0.84,1
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 100, NOP 103	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.48,0.46,0.39,0.45,0.45,0.51,0.47,0.4,0.34,0.3,0.32,0.36,0.35,0.31,0.3,0.34,0.41,0.39,0.23,0.14,0.18,0.21,0.34,0.42,0.33,0.42,0.45,0.55,0.41,0.34,0.48,0.56,0.54,0.7,0.75,0.76,0.81,0.79,0.88,0.78,0.8,0.28,0.55,0.92,1	90.9%
LAC 87, CHH 92	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.47,0.5,0.51,0.56,0.53,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.39,0.44,0.39,0.41,0.42,0.42,0.41,0.46,0.45,0.58,0.42,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.63,0.68,0.62,0.66,0.66,0.67,0.72,0.83,0.76,0.67,0.45,0.55,0.86,1,1	90.3%
ORL 100, MIL 107	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.47,0.49,0.4,0.41,0.41,0.37,0.31,0.34,0.35,0.4,0.42,0.32,0.29,0.26,0.22,0.17,0.22,0.26,0.28,0.3,0.46,0.4,0.34,0.33,0.45,0.55,0.55,0.44,0.41,0.52,0.61,0.68,0.66,0.74,0.79,0.83,0.73,0.74,0.76,0.73,0.55,0.29,0.55,0.58,1	90.1%