NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	74		Excitement	5.8 [702]		MVP	Fred Jones (IND): +7.6%
Indiana Pacers	79		Comeback	2.3 [717]		LVP	Tayshaun Prince (DET): -20.7%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Antonio McDyess	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	3	75%	0.04	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Lindsey Hunter	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.07	-0.01	-0.03	3	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ben Wallace	-0.09	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.01	-0.07	0.01	4	58%	-0.07	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00
Chauncey Billups	-0.11	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,-0.11,-0.11	-0.03	-0.05	0.02	17	53%	-0.05	3	-0.06	9	89%	0.07
Richard Hamilton	-0.15	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.15,-0.15,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.14,-0.19,-0.19,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.14	-0.02	-0.01	16	43%	-0.02	5	-0.13	5	80%	0.00
Rasheed Wallace	-0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.22,-0.2	-0.04	-0.19	-0.03	14	43%	-0.20	1	-0.00	2	50%	-0.06
Tayshaun Prince	-0.21	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.16,-0.16,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.21	-0.15	-0.06	0.00	8	41%	-0.03	5	-0.18	6	83%	0.03

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Fred Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.07	0.01	-0.00	4	89%	0.08	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Anthony Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	-0.02	6	64%	0.06	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Jeff Foster	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.00	6	57%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Austin Croshere	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Scot Pollard	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Miller	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.01	-0.01	-0.07	0.02	-0.03	11	50%	0.03	2	-0.04	12	92%	0.13
Jamaal Tinsley	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.02	-0.05	0.01	10	64%	0.00	2	-0.04	5	40%	-0.04
Dale Davis	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	6	38%	-0.03	1	-0.01	1	100%	0.00
Jermaine O'Neal	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.15	-0.05	-0.04	11	31%	-0.04	3	-0.12	4	100%	0.02
Stephen Jackson	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.11,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.21	-0.02	-0.06	17	24%	-0.09	4	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	3.8	37.0	18.4	23.5	3.7	51.2	161.8
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

IND +25.2%

IND +12.3%

DET -5.3%

IND +14.3%

IND +3.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	IND	NBA	DET	IND	NBA
this game	16.1	17.3	15.5	87.1	90.8	104.0
season	16.7	16.8		103.5	101.9
opponent	15.5	15.9		101.6	98.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	20.6	17.6	13.5	13.6	16.1
IND	16.4	16.7	17.8	18.3	17.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Richard Hamilton	68	69	0.09	-0.59	0.67	-0.06	5	-10	15	16.3	15.6	0.68	18.2	13.9	4.36
Rasheed Wallace	64	65	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.37	6	-11	17	15.8	17.0	-1.22	17.1	18.1	-1.00
Antonio McDyess	25	26	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.02	-7	2	-9	17.2	15.7	1.52	18.4	16.9	1.54
Tayshaun Prince	80	82	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.36	-3	-2	-1	16.4	12.4	3.96	17.3	18.4	-1.12
Chauncey Billups	73	75	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.27	-8	3	-11	15.9	17.6	-1.69	17.0	19.7	-2.79
Ben Wallace	81	83	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.32	-9	4	-13	16.0	18.0	-1.96	17.2	20.2	-3.05
Lindsey Hunter	34	35	-0.64	0.14	-0.78	-0.38	-9	4	-13	15.8	16.3	-0.51	16.5	17.9	-1.34

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dale Davis	45	49	0.60	-0.10	0.71	0.19	14	-9	23	15.0	19.8	-4.77	16.6	15.5	1.14
Stephen Jackson	69	69	0.44	0.06	0.39	0.21	8	-3	11	17.5	16.9	0.57	16.5	14.6	1.85
Jeff Foster	57	53	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.36	1	4	-3	18.6	14.9	3.68	15.7	16.9	-1.20
Jamaal Tinsley	53	53	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.22	5	0	5	16.0	19.5	-3.49	16.4	15.7	0.71
Reggie Miller	59	59	0.33	0.17	0.15	0.27	2	3	-1	15.9	20.5	-4.60	16.3	15.8	0.41
Fred Jones	28	26	0.17	0.33	-0.15	0.09	3	2	1	20.5	15.9	4.60	15.8	16.3	-0.41
Anthony Johnson	34	32	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.13	0	5	-5	19.5	16.0	3.49	15.7	16.4	-0.71
Jermaine O'Neal	63	61	0.10	0.40	-0.31	0.07	1	4	-3	18.1	15.4	2.66	16.3	15.7	0.53
James Jones	18	16	0.06	0.44	-0.39	0.15	-3	8	-11	16.9	17.5	-0.57	14.6	16.5	-1.85
Scot Pollard	5	3	-0.01	0.51	-0.51	0.05	-2	7	-9	12.0	17.7	-5.67	10.7	16.3	-5.66
Austin Croshere	4	4	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	0.04	-4	9	-13	20.2	17.2	3.05	18.0	16.0	1.96

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.53,0.57,0.59,0.63,0.6,0.64,0.68,0.65,0.63,0.62,0.62,0.71,0.74,0.72,0.77,0.82,0.8,0.88,0.9,0.86,0.81,0.82,0.83,0.88,0.9,0.89,0.88,0.9,0.85,0.92,0.91,0.94,0.91,0.94,0.92,0.95,0.94,0.91,0.87,0.85,0.71,0.45,0.74,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 87, DAL 93	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.54,0.58,0.55,0.57,0.63,0.63,0.69,0.73,0.7,0.68,0.66,0.68,0.71,0.76,0.8,0.77,0.78,0.82,0.88,0.86,0.8,0.89,0.84,0.92,0.93,0.94,0.94,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.96,0.96,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.97,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.86,0.71,0.43,0.73,1	94.9%
CHI 94, GSW 100	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.59,0.63,0.63,0.62,0.62,0.65,0.68,0.66,0.71,0.73,0.74,0.75,0.73,0.7,0.77,0.79,0.84,0.84,0.86,0.84,0.89,0.9,0.88,0.91,0.93,0.92,0.91,0.9,0.9,0.94,0.95,0.94,0.95,0.91,0.89,0.85,0.87,0.85,0.96,0.67,0.82,1	93.7%
NJN 87, MIL 92	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.46,0.54,0.59,0.61,0.63,0.69,0.66,0.68,0.68,0.7,0.71,0.73,0.73,0.71,0.7,0.79,0.83,0.81,0.77,0.78,0.78,0.84,0.88,0.89,0.89,0.88,0.87,0.93,0.88,0.93,0.86,0.88,0.92,0.93,0.92,0.92,0.96,0.96,0.88,0.98,0.9,0.63,0.68,0.96,1	93.3%