NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	87		Excitement	5.4 [763]		MVP	Mark Blount (MIN): +8.7%
Dallas Mavericks	93		Comeback	1.4 [856]		LVP	Randy Foye (MIN): -18.0%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mark Blount	0.09	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.04,-0.07,0.09	0.02	0.08	0.01	14	60%	0.15	3	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Mike James	0.06	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.08	0.00	0.02	5	91%	0.08	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Marko Jaric	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	6	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Trenton Hassell	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0.01	5	40%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Troy Hudson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.02	2	0%	-0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Craig Smith	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.03	1	-0.01	3	33%	-0.02
Ricky Davis	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.08	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	11	45%	-0.04	3	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Garnett	-0.15	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.15,-0.15	-0.06	-0.09	0.00	18	43%	-0.11	2	-0.04	8	62%	-0.02
Randy Foye	-0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,-0.07,-0.18	-0.01	-0.15	0.02	14	52%	-0.14	3	-0.04	5	60%	-0.02

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jerry Stackhouse	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.08	0.08	0.04	0.04	-0.01	11	58%	0.09	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.03
Josh Howard	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.13,0.02,0.06	0.06	0.01	0.04	-0.01	13	50%	0.08	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.04
Jason Terry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05	0.05	0.01	-0.00	-0.04	12	46%	0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.04
Devin Harris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	-0.00	-0.00	7	69%	0.06	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Greg Buckner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.01	4	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Austin Croshere	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	-0.01	2	75%	0.03	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.05	0.01	-0.02	6	36%	-0.01	1	-0.00	2	50%	-0.01
DeSagana Diop	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	1	50%	0.00	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Erick Dampier	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.03	0.01	8	75%	0.08	4	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.01	-0.09	-0.02	8	56%	-0.05	3	-0.03	11	100%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.5	2.6	28.3	16.5	21.4	2.6	35.0	134.0
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +25.5%

DAL +21.2%

DAL +5.3%

MIN -4.7%

DAL +2.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	DAL	NBA	MIN	DAL	NBA
this game	16.3	16.6	15.4	98.9	106.9	104.5
season	15.4	16.3		101.9	108.7
opponent	15.2	15.6		102.3	105.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	16.0	19.2	17.7	13.6	16.3
DAL	14.7	19.7	18.3	14.6	16.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Craig Smith	34	34	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	-0.25	5	-11	16	18.1	15.2	2.88	18.3	15.5	2.83
Troy Hudson	25	25	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	-0.12	0	-6	6	16.1	16.4	-0.33	15.9	16.9	-1.01
Randy Foye	51	50	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.39	7	-13	20	15.6	17.4	-1.78	16.1	17.2	-1.12
Marko Jaric	46	45	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.29	2	-8	10	15.5	17.2	-1.76	15.9	17.4	-1.51
Trenton Hassell	42	42	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.04	-8	2	-10	17.2	15.5	1.76	17.4	15.9	1.51
Mike James	39	39	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.06	-8	2	-10	17.5	15.3	2.19	17.7	15.7	1.94
Ricky Davis	61	60	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.08	-11	5	-16	16.3	16.4	-0.18	16.6	16.6	0.01
Mark Blount	70	69	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.24	-6	0	-6	15.9	17.9	-2.04	16.6	16.4	0.19
Kevin Garnett	72	71	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	-0.15	-11	5	-16	15.9	18.2	-2.36	15.7	20.4	-4.71

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Terry	58	58	0.44	0.06	0.37	0.23	7	-1	8	17.2	15.3	1.93	16.1	16.8	-0.68
Dirk Nowitzki	69	70	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.27	5	1	4	15.9	19.3	-3.45	15.9	18.1	-2.18
Devin Harris	45	45	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.09	11	-5	16	17.1	16.0	1.11	17.5	15.1	2.40
Josh Howard	64	64	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.32	2	4	-2	16.1	17.9	-1.73	15.9	17.4	-1.51
Erick Dampier	54	53	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.27	2	4	-2	16.8	16.3	0.43	16.4	16.1	0.29
Greg Buckner	15	15	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.07	6	0	6	15.2	16.9	-1.69	16.5	16.3	0.18
DeSagana Diop	32	32	0.16	0.34	-0.19	0.10	2	4	-2	16.8	16.5	0.39	17.1	15.9	1.27
Jerry Stackhouse	48	51	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.12	-1	7	-8	15.7	17.6	-1.89	15.5	17.4	-1.88
Austin Croshere	18	18	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.05	1	5	-4	19.3	15.9	3.45	18.1	15.9	2.18
Anthony Johnson	32	34	-0.04	0.54	-0.59	0.10	-5	11	-16	17.0	16.4	0.64	16.1	16.4	-0.33

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.54,0.58,0.55,0.57,0.63,0.63,0.69,0.73,0.7,0.68,0.66,0.68,0.71,0.76,0.8,0.77,0.78,0.82,0.88,0.86,0.8,0.89,0.84,0.92,0.93,0.94,0.94,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.96,0.96,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.97,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.86,0.71,0.43,0.73,1
Game		Similarity Score
DET 74, IND 79	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.53,0.57,0.59,0.63,0.6,0.64,0.68,0.65,0.63,0.62,0.62,0.71,0.74,0.72,0.77,0.82,0.8,0.88,0.9,0.86,0.81,0.82,0.83,0.88,0.9,0.89,0.88,0.9,0.85,0.92,0.91,0.94,0.91,0.94,0.92,0.95,0.94,0.91,0.87,0.85,0.71,0.45,0.74,1	94.9%
CLE 113, BOS 117	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.6,0.53,0.56,0.6,0.61,0.59,0.61,0.6,0.62,0.66,0.68,0.66,0.66,0.68,0.73,0.73,0.75,0.77,0.78,0.72,0.64,0.75,0.88,0.89,0.91,0.95,0.89,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.96,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.92,0.83,0.81,0.54,0.55,0.73,1	93.9%
NJN 78, MIL 80	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.55,0.61,0.65,0.66,0.67,0.63,0.62,0.69,0.66,0.66,0.68,0.72,0.68,0.73,0.76,0.82,0.81,0.82,0.9,0.91,0.93,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,0.98,0.99,0.94,0.96,0.9,0.81,0.67,0.58,1	93.3%