NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New Jersey Nets	78		Excitement	5.8 [650]		MVP	Ray Allen (MIL): +27.8%
Milwaukee Bucks	80		Comeback	1.5 [745]		LVP	Sherman Douglas (NJN): -42.6%

New Jersey Nets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Vladimir Stepania	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.06,0.16,0.16	0.05	0.11	0.01	3	87%	0.16	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Stephon Marbury	0.14	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0.14	-0.10	0.21	-0.04	14	35%	0.16	1	-0.02	6	67%	0.01
Jim McIlvaine	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Evan Eschmeyer	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.05	0.00	-0.03	3	33%	-0.02	2	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Lucious Harris	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.05	0.00	0.07	9	60%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Johnny Newman	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kenyon Martin	-0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.09	0.00	-0.03	9	38%	-0.04	1	-0.02	8	75%	0.02
Stephen Jackson	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.01	-0.06	-0.00	6	50%	-0.07	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kendall Gill	-0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.18	-0.00	-0.10	13	27%	-0.07	3	-0.01	4	50%	-0.01
Aaron Williams	-0.11	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11	-0.08	-0.04	-0.02	5	55%	-0.06	3	-0.04	10	70%	-0.05
Sherman Douglas	-0.43	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.23,-0.43	-0.19	-0.29	-0.06	10	38%	-0.17	6	-0.25	6	67%	-0.02

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ray Allen	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.1,0.28	0.28	-0.10	0.29	-0.09	16	41%	0.28	2	-0.00	7	86%	0.01
Sam Cassell	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,0.12	0.12	-0.05	0.14	-0.03	13	50%	0.18	3	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Jason Caffey	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.00	-0.01	5	69%	0.03	1	-0.00	6	83%	0.00
Tim Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03	0.03	0.03	-0.01	-0.01	9	70%	0.05	2	-0.02	5	60%	-0.03
Ervin Johnson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jerome Kersey	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rafer Alston	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	2	0%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Scott Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lindsey Hunter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09	-0.09	-0.13	-0.02	-0.06	9	23%	-0.08	1	-0.00	4	75%	-0.02
Mark Pope	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.18	-0.18	-0.03	-0.17	-0.02	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.19	2	50%	-0.01
Glenn Robinson	0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.25	-0.25	-0.25	-0.13	-0.13	18	32%	-0.14	7	-0.10	4	75%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.1	2.5	33.6	16.4	25.0	0.3	36.0	135.9
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +45.8%

NJN -2.0%

NJN -13.2%

MIL +15.4%

MIL +4.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NJN	MIL	NBA	NJN	MIL	NBA
this game	15.0	13.8	15.5	78.0	80.0	100.9
season	15.5	14.9		97.8	105.9
opponent	15.8	15.1		102.3	103.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NJN	15.9	15.9	14.5	13.8	15.0
MIL	12.9	12.9	12.7	17.0	13.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New Jersey Nets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Evan Eschmeyer	43	42	0.15	-0.65	0.80	-0.49	22	-24	46	14.3	15.6	-1.26	17.0	11.4	5.55
Vladimir Stepania	22	21	0.08	-0.58	0.67	-0.50	20	-22	42	14.7	15.1	-0.38	18.3	12.6	5.70
Stephen Jackson	24	23	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	-0.62	21	-23	44	13.7	15.4	-1.67	17.0	12.8	4.13
Jim McIlvaine	11	11	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	0.03	-5	3	-8	19.5	14.5	5.08	11.9	14.0	-2.10
Johnny Newman	11	11	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	0.03	-7	5	-12	19.4	14.5	4.88	14.3	13.7	0.55
Lucious Harris	50	51	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.66	16	-18	34	14.9	15.1	-0.24	15.5	12.0	3.45
Kendall Gill	62	63	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	0.11	-14	12	-26	14.9	15.2	-0.35	12.8	15.4	-2.54
Kenyon Martin	52	53	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	0.28	-23	21	-44	16.2	13.7	2.52	12.0	15.8	-3.75
Sherman Douglas	79	77	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.38	-2	0	-2	14.6	16.5	-1.90	13.6	14.3	-0.74
Aaron Williams	72	73	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	0.05	-20	18	-38	14.3	16.7	-2.40	12.4	17.5	-5.07
Stephon Marbury	74	75	-0.57	0.07	-0.65	-0.05	-18	16	-34	15.0	15.0	0.08	12.3	18.1	-5.79

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tim Thomas	56	56	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.63	-5	7	-12	15.3	11.8	3.54	15.1	14.9	0.24
Ray Allen	83	84	0.47	0.03	0.45	0.12	12	-10	22	12.9	18.0	-5.08	15.6	11.7	3.89
Sam Cassell	68	69	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.21	7	-5	12	12.9	15.7	-2.90	14.8	15.5	-0.72
Lindsey Hunter	47	45	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.61	-9	11	-20	15.0	12.7	2.26	14.2	15.7	-1.49
Glenn Robinson	86	87	0.33	0.17	0.17	0.39	-2	4	-6	13.5	15.7	-2.25	14.5	18.5	-4.04
Jason Caffey	42	44	0.23	0.27	-0.03	0.03	7	-5	12	12.7	14.6	-1.88	15.7	14.5	1.22
Mark Pope	48	48	0.20	0.30	-0.09	0.06	5	-3	8	13.0	14.5	-1.50	15.1	15.0	0.12
Jerome Kersey	15	14	0.20	0.30	-0.11	0.02	6	-4	10	15.7	13.4	2.22	18.7	14.4	4.30
Ervin Johnson	20	19	0.14	0.36	-0.22	-0.03	6	-4	10	14.4	13.6	0.84	16.9	14.6	2.31
Rafer Alston	5	5	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.19	-7	9	-16	22.6	13.3	9.28	7.4	15.4	-8.02
Scott Williams	30	29	-0.31	0.81	-1.13	-0.02	-10	12	-22	14.3	13.6	0.74	13.6	15.6	-2.07

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.55,0.61,0.65,0.66,0.67,0.63,0.62,0.69,0.66,0.66,0.68,0.72,0.68,0.73,0.76,0.82,0.81,0.82,0.9,0.91,0.93,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,0.98,0.99,0.94,0.96,0.9,0.81,0.67,0.58,1
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 93, BOS 101	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.54,0.57,0.61,0.65,0.68,0.7,0.63,0.64,0.62,0.71,0.68,0.76,0.72,0.71,0.77,0.74,0.83,0.88,0.82,0.86,0.85,0.89,0.91,0.92,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.95,0.97,0.97,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.96,0.94,0.8,0.85,0.95,0.93,0.9,0.81,0.79,0.84,0.58,1	94.6%
MIN 87, DAL 93	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.54,0.58,0.55,0.57,0.63,0.63,0.69,0.73,0.7,0.68,0.66,0.68,0.71,0.76,0.8,0.77,0.78,0.82,0.88,0.86,0.8,0.89,0.84,0.92,0.93,0.94,0.94,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.96,0.96,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.97,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.86,0.71,0.43,0.73,1	93.3%
ATL 110, CHI 112	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.57,0.64,0.63,0.62,0.66,0.64,0.7,0.74,0.72,0.79,0.73,0.76,0.78,0.75,0.8,0.83,0.86,0.87,0.88,0.92,0.94,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.94,0.93,0.83,0.88,0.91,0.91,0.83,0.8,0.9,1	93.3%