NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	93		Excitement	5.5 [688]		MVP	Raja Bell (DAL): +12.7%
Dallas Mavericks	112		Comeback	4.9 [345]		LVP	Scot Pollard (SAC): -22.5%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bobby Jackson	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.07	0.01	0.03	12	58%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gerald Wallace	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lawrence Funderburke	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.04	0.00	-0.04	1	0%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vlade Divac	-0.02	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.05	0.00	-0.03	5	38%	-0.02	1	-0.01	3	33%	-0.02
Jim Jackson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	10	41%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Mike Bibby	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	12	48%	-0.04	2	-0.00	3	100%	0.00
Hedo Turkoglu	-0.06	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	5	25%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Doug Christie	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	0.02	-0.04	0.06	16	60%	0.02	3	-0.09	3	100%	0.02
Peja Stojakovic	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.03	-0.01	18	45%	-0.05	2	-0.04	6	100%	0.03
Keon Clark	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.09	-0.01	-0.00	5	31%	-0.07	1	-0.03	6	83%	0.01
Scot Pollard	-0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.1,-0.07,-0.13,-0.15,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.15	-0.08	-0.00	8	22%	-0.13	3	-0.09	2	0%	-0.04

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Raja Bell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.11	0.04	0.02	7	87%	0.13	0	0.00	1	0%	0.00
Raef LaFrentz	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.01	0.00	9	70%	0.09	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Walt Williams	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Evan Eschmeyer	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Finley	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.03	-0.01	-0.04	16	47%	0.04	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.00
Shawn Bradley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	1	50%	-0.02	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.01
Nick Van Exel	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.01	-0.00	17	47%	-0.01	2	-0.02	4	50%	-0.02
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.09	-0.01	-0.06	15	44%	0.01	3	-0.04	6	83%	0.01
Eduardo Najera	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	9	38%	-0.04	0	0.00	3	67%	0.01
Steve Nash	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	0.03	-0.04	0.06	12	62%	-0.04	1	-0.03	16	94%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.1	3.5	30.5	19.7	26.7	3.5	33.6	146.6
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +46.2%

DAL +9.0%

SAC -8.0%

DAL +6.2%

SAC -3.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	DAL	NBA	SAC	DAL	NBA
this game	14.2	14.9	15.5	93.9	113.1	101.6
season	14.0	15.1		104.4	108.6
opponent	15.3	15.7		102.0	98.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	11.4	17.0	15.2	13.6	14.2
DAL	14.9	12.5	12.5	20.7	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gerald Wallace	2	2	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.06	-2	-17	15	13.0	14.2	-1.25	24.5	14.7	9.83
Lawrence Funderburke	2	2	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.06	-2	-17	15	13.0	14.2	-1.25	24.5	14.7	9.83
Vlade Divac	27	28	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	0.08	-7	-12	5	14.0	14.3	-0.31	15.4	14.7	0.68
Bobby Jackson	55	54	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	0.17	-11	-8	-3	14.9	13.4	1.42	15.5	14.1	1.39
Keon Clark	29	28	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	0.03	-8	-11	3	16.1	13.5	2.61	13.1	15.6	-2.51
Scot Pollard	27	27	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.12	-3	-16	13	14.2	14.2	-0.00	13.6	15.3	-1.75
Hedo Turkoglu	56	57	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	0.12	-13	-6	-7	13.1	15.6	-2.49	14.4	15.5	-1.18
Jim Jackson	52	51	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	0.06	-13	-6	-7	15.8	12.4	3.42	15.2	14.5	0.63
Doug Christie	81	82	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.14	-8	-11	3	13.3	18.5	-5.23	15.1	13.6	1.47
Peja Stojakovic	88	88	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.13	-10	-9	-1	14.0	16.2	-2.20	14.8	15.5	-0.66
Mike Bibby	76	76	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	0.09	-18	-1	-17	14.2	14.3	-0.16	14.8	15.0	-0.17

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Michael Finley	90	90	0.64	-0.14	0.77	-0.07	24	-5	29	14.5	18.4	-3.93	14.4	12.3	2.08
Dirk Nowitzki	94	95	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.03	16	3	13	14.5	21.8	-7.30	14.3	11.7	2.58
Steve Nash	80	79	0.38	0.12	0.26	-0.17	19	0	19	15.2	13.6	1.53	14.2	14.4	-0.29
Nick Van Exel	66	66	0.31	0.19	0.12	-0.13	15	4	11	15.2	14.3	0.85	15.1	12.5	2.52
Raja Bell	60	60	0.29	0.21	0.07	0.17	4	15	-11	14.4	15.6	-1.19	12.8	16.3	-3.48
Shawn Bradley	22	22	0.25	0.25	0.00	0.02	8	11	-3	16.1	14.5	1.63	16.7	13.5	3.16
Raef LaFrentz	40	41	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.06	2	17	-15	14.1	15.4	-1.33	13.7	14.6	-0.88
Eduardo Najera	36	36	0.01	0.49	-0.48	-0.05	2	17	-15	14.9	14.8	0.12	13.8	14.5	-0.70
Walt Williams	5	4	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.09	3	16	-13	21.8	14.5	7.30	11.7	14.3	-2.58
Evan Eschmeyer	2	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.06	2	17	-15	24.5	14.7	9.83	13.0	14.2	-1.25

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.41,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.39,0.36,0.32,0.32,0.26,0.22,0.2,0.19,0.2,0.28,0.27,0.26,0.34,0.28,0.33,0.3,0.38,0.42,0.48,0.61,0.61,0.65,0.65,0.69,0.74,0.82,0.87,0.92,0.91,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.97,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 107, SEA 111	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.5,0.47,0.4,0.37,0.39,0.35,0.37,0.36,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.26,0.32,0.27,0.26,0.35,0.23,0.24,0.31,0.23,0.3,0.33,0.32,0.37,0.41,0.48,0.58,0.55,0.68,0.59,0.76,0.91,0.94,0.95,0.97,0.97,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.96,0.93,0.95,0.99,0.97,0.91,1	94.8%
BOS 79, TOR 84	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.46,0.45,0.43,0.41,0.43,0.36,0.34,0.35,0.34,0.29,0.34,0.25,0.24,0.3,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.27,0.36,0.33,0.35,0.37,0.39,0.52,0.64,0.68,0.71,0.76,0.79,0.86,0.85,0.87,0.9,0.94,0.89,0.96,0.98,0.97,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.96,1	94.6%
BKN 97, MIL 103	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.42,0.44,0.4,0.45,0.43,0.43,0.4,0.37,0.38,0.35,0.3,0.29,0.21,0.21,0.17,0.22,0.21,0.31,0.31,0.33,0.3,0.37,0.34,0.46,0.42,0.58,0.55,0.62,0.65,0.72,0.77,0.83,0.9,0.9,0.91,0.92,0.83,0.84,0.83,0.88,0.93,0.9,0.97,1,0.99,1	94.5%