NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	104		Excitement	8.3 [202]		MVP	Mark Jackson (UTA): +8.4%
Utah Jazz	107		Comeback	1.8 [388]		LVP	Karl Malone (UTA): -30.1%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike Bibby	0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0.04,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.06,0.12,0.06,0.06	0.02	0.01	-0.03	13	68%	0.19	4	-0.13	8	75%	0.02
Bobby Jackson	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.00	6	64%	0.09	1	-0.07	2	100%	0.02
Doug Christie	0.00	0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.00	-0.00	5	60%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Keon Clark	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0	0.01	-0.01	0.00	4	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Scot Pollard	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.00	5	36%	-0.01	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Vlade Divac	-0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	3	75%	0.03	3	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Peja Stojakovic	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.02	-0.01	0.02	15	54%	0.00	3	-0.06	5	80%	0.05
Jim Jackson	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12	-0.02	-0.08	0.02	8	45%	-0.12	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Chris Webber	-0.19	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.22,-0.17,-0.17,-0.11,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.09	-0.08	0.01	25	43%	-0.12	2	-0.07	6	67%	-0.04

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mark Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.08	-0.00	0.00	4	100%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
John Stockton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.08,0.06,0.07	0.07	0.01	0.03	-0.03	6	71%	0.11	2	-0.04	9	100%	0.04
DeShawn Stevenson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	3	67%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Calbert Cheaney	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.07	-0.02	0.02	10	65%	0.03	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.04
Andrei Kirilenko	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.02	0.00	9	50%	0.04	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.03
Matt Harpring	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04	-0.04	-0.07	0.01	-0.02	12	37%	-0.04	0	0.00	6	83%	-0.00
Tony Massenburg	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0	50%	-0.04	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.04
Greg Ostertag	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.08	0.02	-0.00	15	50%	-0.00	2	-0.06	14	71%	0.01
Karl Malone	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.2,-0.3,-0.3,-0.24,-0.24,-0.28,-0.3,-0.3	-0.30	-0.15	-0.14	0.01	20	39%	-0.24	2	-0.06	11	55%	-0.09

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.9	3.6	34.0	17.6	31.4	2.8	51.2	169.4
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

UTA +0.8%

UTA +17.6%

UTA +25.5%

UTA +10.1%

SAC -4.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	UTA	NBA	SAC	UTA	NBA
this game	14.9	16.1	15.5	113.0	113.8	101.6
season	14.0	16.3		104.4	103.1
opponent	15.3	15.7		101.1	98.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	14.9	13.0	15.7	15.9	14.9
UTA	15.1	17.5	16.3	15.4	16.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Doug Christie	46	46	0.11	-0.61	0.72	-0.07	6	-9	15	14.4	15.4	-1.04	16.0	16.1	-0.08
Chris Webber	72	74	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	-0.20	2	-5	7	15.3	13.4	1.84	16.1	15.9	0.14
Keon Clark	33	32	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.25	1	-4	5	15.6	14.5	1.16	16.8	15.7	1.18
Vlade Divac	53	54	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.28	1	-4	5	13.9	16.3	-2.37	15.9	16.3	-0.45
Bobby Jackson	37	40	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.09	-9	6	-15	15.8	14.3	1.45	16.6	15.6	1.02
Mike Bibby	75	75	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.42	2	-5	7	14.3	17.4	-3.02	16.0	16.4	-0.45
Scot Pollard	24	25	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.04	-11	8	-19	15.4	14.7	0.65	15.6	16.2	-0.63
Peja Stojakovic	79	81	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.35	-3	0	-3	15.0	14.2	0.86	15.7	18.5	-2.78
Jim Jackson	41	43	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.36	-4	1	-5	15.2	14.6	0.55	16.3	15.8	0.48

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Greg Ostertag	84	84	0.51	-0.01	0.51	0.33	6	-3	9	16.1	15.9	0.18	15.0	13.2	1.80
Andrei Kirilenko	66	62	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.32	5	-2	7	16.2	15.9	0.29	14.6	15.6	-1.00
Karl Malone	86	84	0.46	0.04	0.43	0.40	2	1	1	16.0	16.2	-0.20	14.7	17.2	-2.58
John Stockton	66	65	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.45	-3	6	-9	15.9	16.5	-0.62	14.3	16.2	-1.88
Matt Harpring	49	53	0.34	0.16	0.17	0.45	-4	7	-11	16.3	15.8	0.42	15.4	14.2	1.24
Calbert Cheaney	69	66	0.23	0.27	-0.03	0.09	5	-2	7	15.7	17.0	-1.33	14.8	15.1	-0.31
Mark Jackson	31	29	0.18	0.32	-0.13	0.01	6	-3	9	15.7	16.3	-0.58	15.3	14.7	0.66
Tony Massenburg	14	13	0.01	0.49	-0.48	-0.02	1	2	-1	17.5	15.8	1.69	17.3	14.5	2.81
DeShawn Stevenson	5	4	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	0.03	-3	6	-9	18.6	15.9	2.68	13.7	14.9	-1.19

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.42,0.41,0.36,0.41,0.41,0.45,0.43,0.51,0.51,0.6,0.64,0.66,0.71,0.67,0.67,0.63,0.64,0.61,0.59,0.69,0.61,0.58,0.58,0.46,0.48,0.58,0.64,0.71,0.71,0.62,0.59,0.52,0.64,0.66,0.74,0.75,0.7,0.63,0.47,0.49,0.6,0.81,0.79,0.85,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 105, ORL 112	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.42,0.43,0.43,0.51,0.51,0.6,0.63,0.64,0.62,0.67,0.62,0.6,0.63,0.64,0.54,0.44,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.64,0.68,0.72,0.66,0.73,0.63,0.68,0.62,0.82,0.75,0.71,0.53,0.64,0.61,0.73,0.55,0.71,0.83,0.91,1	92.0%
SAC 84, NOK 88	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.5,0.5,0.44,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.55,0.58,0.54,0.58,0.64,0.64,0.62,0.65,0.63,0.69,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.42,0.52,0.55,0.64,0.64,0.71,0.66,0.56,0.59,0.56,0.68,0.78,0.78,0.75,0.76,0.73,0.59,0.41,0.67,0.68,0.78,0.67,0.85,1	91.8%
MIN 104, HOU 107	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.5,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.48,0.53,0.58,0.6,0.71,0.71,0.74,0.61,0.61,0.56,0.64,0.64,0.7,0.71,0.63,0.67,0.73,0.7,0.8,0.71,0.69,0.59,0.6,0.75,0.66,0.62,0.66,0.8,0.77,0.59,0.53,0.67,0.69,0.78,0.84,0.96,1	91.7%