NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	84		Excitement	7.8 [296]		MVP	Tyson Chandler (NOK): +37.5%
New Orleans/Oklahoma City Hornets	88		Comeback	1.7 [644]		LVP	Metta World Peace (SAC): -33.8%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Corliss Williamson	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.06	0.09	0.00	3	100%	0.15	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
John Salmons	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.07	0.03	-0.00	5	70%	0.13	1	-0.02	10	100%	0.08
Mike Bibby	0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,0.06,0.17,0.08	-0.01	0.09	0.00	19	47%	0.12	1	-0.04	7	71%	0.00
Kevin Martin	0.02	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02	0.09	-0.03	0.03	14	62%	0.04	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.02
Francisco Garcia	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kenny Thomas	-0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.00	2	50%	-0.00	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.07	-0.06	-0.00	7	25%	-0.09	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Brad Miller	-0.18	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.17,-0.17,-0.18	-0.10	-0.09	-0.01	13	25%	-0.18	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Metta World Peace	-0.34	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.34,-0.34	-0.15	-0.23	-0.04	13	35%	-0.05	5	-0.29	0	0%	0.00

New Orleans/Oklahoma City Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tyson Chandler	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.16,0.16,0.23,0.23,0.37,0.37	0.37	0.09	0.29	0.01	8	68%	0.37	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.02
Desmond Mason	0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0,0,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.08	0.05	-0.02	18	67%	0.23	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Bobby Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.01	0.06	-0.03	13	50%	0.12	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00
Devin Brown	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.09	0.09	0.04	0.05	0.00	10	56%	0.11	1	-0.02	5	40%	-0.04
Linton Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	5	60%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Hilton Armstrong	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jannero Pargo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.09	-0.01	-0.03	8	28%	-0.01	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.02
Rasual Butler	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.07	-0.09	-0.01	10	30%	-0.09	1	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
David West	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.25,-0.34	-0.34	-0.14	-0.19	0.00	9	24%	-0.13	3	-0.20	3	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.6	1.8	28.5	15.0	24.2	2.6	31.0	127.7
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NOK +69.3%

SAC -15.6%

NOK +4.3%

SAC -9.5%

NOK +1.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	NOK	NBA	SAC	NOK	NBA
this game	15.2	16.1	15.4	92.3	94.6	104.5
season	14.7	16.0		104.7	102.8
opponent	15.3	15.1		104.4	106.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	16.1	13.8	16.7	14.4	15.2
NOK	15.9	16.2	16.0	16.2	16.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Corliss Williamson	17	17	0.06	-0.56	0.61	-0.06	4	-8	12	16.3	14.9	1.35	17.1	15.9	1.25
Francisco Garcia	25	28	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	0.02	-2	-2	0	15.4	15.1	0.33	14.1	17.0	-2.90
Metta World Peace	71	70	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.35	6	-10	16	14.8	16.5	-1.67	16.8	13.9	2.96
John Salmons	65	67	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.40	5	-9	14	15.0	15.6	-0.53	15.4	17.8	-2.43
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	33	34	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	0.02	-10	6	-16	16.1	14.7	1.40	13.0	17.9	-4.93
Kevin Martin	71	72	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.42	2	-6	8	14.9	16.1	-1.16	16.8	13.6	3.20
Brad Miller	68	70	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.40	-1	-3	2	14.6	17.0	-2.41	16.8	14.0	2.73
Kenny Thomas	38	38	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	0.06	-17	13	-30	16.3	14.4	1.92	16.3	16.0	0.33
Mike Bibby	67	69	-0.58	0.08	-0.65	-0.37	-7	3	-10	15.2	15.2	-0.07	16.6	14.7	1.87

New Orleans/Oklahoma City Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tyson Chandler	66	65	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.33	11	-7	18	16.5	15.0	1.49	15.3	15.0	0.33
Bobby Jackson	59	57	0.65	-0.15	0.79	0.35	10	-6	16	14.7	18.5	-3.79	14.6	16.2	-1.56
Desmond Mason	71	69	0.52	-0.02	0.53	0.49	1	3	-2	16.5	14.7	1.85	15.2	15.2	-0.04
Linton Johnson	37	36	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.05	10	-6	16	13.5	17.8	-4.25	15.6	14.9	0.64
Devin Brown	56	54	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.30	1	3	-2	17.0	14.8	2.18	15.7	14.4	1.29
Rasual Butler	62	63	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.14	-1	5	-6	16.9	14.5	2.37	15.3	14.9	0.39
David West	67	66	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.32	-8	12	-20	17.1	13.6	3.44	15.2	15.2	0.05
Hilton Armstrong	12	12	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.07	-4	8	-12	15.5	16.2	-0.69	14.5	15.3	-0.80
Jannero Pargo	35	33	-0.13	0.63	-0.75	-0.13	0	4	-4	15.0	16.8	-1.76	14.8	15.4	-0.69

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.5,0.5,0.44,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.55,0.58,0.54,0.58,0.64,0.64,0.62,0.65,0.63,0.69,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.42,0.52,0.55,0.64,0.64,0.71,0.66,0.56,0.59,0.56,0.68,0.78,0.78,0.75,0.76,0.73,0.59,0.41,0.67,0.68,0.78,0.67,0.85,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 105, ORL 112	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.42,0.43,0.43,0.51,0.51,0.6,0.63,0.64,0.62,0.67,0.62,0.6,0.63,0.64,0.54,0.44,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.64,0.68,0.72,0.66,0.73,0.63,0.68,0.62,0.82,0.75,0.71,0.53,0.64,0.61,0.73,0.55,0.71,0.83,0.91,1	92.6%
LAC 95, SAC 99	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.57,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.59,0.63,0.62,0.58,0.6,0.63,0.6,0.6,0.63,0.56,0.56,0.61,0.64,0.59,0.54,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.54,0.54,0.45,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.55,0.59,0.52,0.6,0.72,0.81,0.78,0.79,0.71,0.77,0.64,0.6,0.66,0.75,0.78,0.91,0.98,1	92.1%
SAC 104, UTA 107	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.42,0.41,0.36,0.41,0.41,0.45,0.43,0.51,0.51,0.6,0.64,0.66,0.71,0.67,0.67,0.63,0.64,0.61,0.59,0.69,0.61,0.58,0.58,0.46,0.48,0.58,0.64,0.71,0.71,0.62,0.59,0.52,0.64,0.66,0.74,0.75,0.7,0.63,0.47,0.49,0.6,0.81,0.79,0.85,0.98,1	91.8%