NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	114		Excitement	10.1 [36]		MVP	Nick Anderson (ORL): +25.4%
Orlando Magic	110		Comeback	2.0 [263]		LVP	Ike Austin (ORL): -24.9%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tyrone Corbin	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0,0,0,0,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.06	0.10	-0.01	7	69%	0.17	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Steven Smith	0.14	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.18,0.15,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.06,0.1,0.14	0.06	0.08	-0.00	17	60%	0.18	1	-0.03	6	83%	0.03
Chris Crawford	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	-0.02	0.00	8	56%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Johnson	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.00	4	75%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Mark West	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
LaPhonso Ellis	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	6	36%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Dikembe Mutombo	-0.10	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.11,-0.08,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.01	-0.01	15	46%	-0.02	3	-0.07	9	67%	0.03
Mookie Blaylock	-0.12	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.11,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.06	-0.04	0.02	16	42%	-0.10	1	-0.02	4	25%	-0.21
Grant Long	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.05	-0.09	0.00	5	50%	-0.03	2	-0.11	4	75%	0.00
Alan Henderson	-0.17	0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.12,-0.12,-0.19,-0.19,-0.17	-0.07	-0.10	-0.00	18	45%	-0.12	2	-0.04	6	83%	0.03

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nick Anderson	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.03,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,0.05,0.05,0.25	0.25	0.12	0.15	0.01	17	79%	0.42	5	-0.16	9	78%	0.02
Dominique Wilkins	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.08,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.07	0.01	-0.00	10	75%	0.14	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Anfernee Hardaway	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07	0.07	0.05	0.01	-0.01	13	59%	0.08	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Michael Doleac	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.07	-0.03	-0.00	6	85%	0.12	1	-0.08	1	100%	0.00
Darrell Armstrong	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.06,0.03,0.03,0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	11	58%	0.16	4	-0.18	2	100%	0.01
Derek Strong	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	5	36%	-0.03	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Matt Harpring	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	4	25%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Horace Grant	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1	-0.10	-0.04	-0.06	0.01	3	37%	-0.04	1	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Ike Austin	0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.25,-0.25	-0.25	-0.11	-0.16	-0.02	15	34%	-0.21	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.06

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.1	1.8	30.2	15.5	21.3	1.7	44.2	137.7
league avg	26.9	3.0	42.0	16.0	26.3	2.2	45.7	163.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL -44.1%

ORL -2.9%

ATL +70.0%

ATL +31.1%

ORL -4.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	ORL	NBA	ATL	ORL	NBA
this game	15.4	14.9	15.8	118.8	117.0	99.6
season	16.7	16.1		97.2	98.0
opponent	15.6	16.3		95.7	94.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	14.3	16.1	14.2	16.9	15.4
ORL	13.3	15.9	17.9	13.1	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Alan Henderson	69	70	0.63	-0.13	0.77	0.43	7	-3	10	15.4	15.3	0.18	14.7	15.5	-0.72
Dikembe Mutombo	82	78	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.42	6	-2	8	15.4	15.5	-0.13	14.4	17.7	-3.33
Steven Smith	78	79	0.54	-0.04	0.59	0.43	4	0	4	15.0	16.9	-1.92	14.8	15.5	-0.64
Mookie Blaylock	80	79	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.39	3	1	2	15.4	15.1	0.39	14.7	15.9	-1.20
Tyrone Corbin	54	50	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.40	-6	10	-16	15.7	15.0	0.73	14.2	15.7	-1.51
Chris Crawford	21	22	0.18	0.32	-0.14	-0.03	7	-3	10	14.8	15.5	-0.74	17.8	14.1	3.72
LaPhonso Ellis	35	34	0.17	0.33	-0.15	-0.00	6	-2	8	15.5	15.3	0.25	14.7	15.1	-0.39
Mark West	4	5	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.03	1	3	-2	13.2	15.5	-2.23	22.2	14.5	7.68
Anthony Johnson	20	18	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	-0.04	-2	6	-8	16.0	15.2	0.78	15.2	14.9	0.30
Grant Long	37	35	-0.23	0.73	-0.95	-0.05	-6	10	-16	15.6	15.3	0.30	15.5	14.6	0.94

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Michael Doleac	26	28	0.30	-0.80	1.10	0.10	7	-11	18	16.1	14.5	1.64	17.7	14.4	3.29
Derek Strong	11	11	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	0.03	-3	-1	-2	19.3	14.3	4.92	14.4	15.5	-1.15
Matt Harpring	13	14	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	0.05	-5	1	-6	16.6	14.7	1.96	16.1	15.3	0.89
Dominique Wilkins	45	45	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	0.01	-7	3	-10	15.2	14.7	0.53	15.7	15.1	0.61
Darrell Armstrong	56	59	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.45	7	-11	18	14.6	15.3	-0.70	15.5	15.2	0.32
Anfernee Hardaway	86	87	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.41	-1	-3	2	14.7	17.2	-2.54	15.6	13.6	2.02
Nick Anderson	86	87	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.39	-3	-1	-2	14.8	16.5	-1.72	15.1	18.6	-3.50
Horace Grant	79	81	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	-0.38	-4	0	-4	14.5	17.3	-2.79	15.3	16.0	-0.73
Ike Austin	68	68	-0.80	0.30	-1.10	-0.48	-11	7	-18	14.5	16.1	-1.64	14.4	17.7	-3.29

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.43,0.48,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.53,0.47,0.51,0.43,0.44,0.42,0.45,0.47,0.39,0.37,0.36,0.44,0.39,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.4,0.35,0.32,0.28,0.23,0.33,0.29,0.19,0.22,0.25,0.42,0.37,0.47,0.46,0.54,0.47,0.37,0.43,0.26,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 105, PHX 98	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.4,0.4,0.43,0.45,0.4,0.47,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.42,0.3,0.39,0.42,0.54,0.54,0.64,0.59,0.54,0.54,0.46,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.38,0.34,0.24,0.19,0.32,0.26,0.26,0.21,0.33,0.28,0.37,0.54,0.53,0.39,0.45,0.33,0.27,0	93.2%
IND 91, NYK 86	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.43,0.48,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.43,0.35,0.38,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.44,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.41,0.35,0.31,0.29,0.21,0.38,0.43,0.34,0.33,0.32,0.47,0.53,0.39,0.31,0.36,0.45,0.28,0	92.3%
NOH 104, LAC 98	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.45,0.42,0.44,0.4,0.47,0.47,0.4,0.35,0.35,0.39,0.39,0.46,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.4,0.46,0.39,0.36,0.36,0.29,0.26,0.28,0.37,0.33,0.18,0.15,0.13,0.21,0.2,0.32,0.36,0.47,0.61,0.38,0.46,0.32,0.18,0	92.2%