NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	89		Excitement	7.9 [153]		MVP	Alvin Williams (TOR): +10.1%
Toronto Raptors	84		Comeback	3.6 [264]		LVP	Ike Austin (ORL): -19.0%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Anfernee Hardaway	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,0.04,0.04	-0.01	0.06	0.00	9	72%	0.22	5	-0.17	0	0%	0.00
Derek Strong	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	4	50%	0.00	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
Matt Harpring	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.01	-0.00	8	56%	0.02	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Horace Grant	-0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	-0.02	-0.03	11	36%	-0.04	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Bo Outlaw	-0.08	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.04	-0.05	-0.01	5	59%	-0.00	2	-0.08	7	29%	-0.08
Nick Anderson	-0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1	-0.04	-0.07	-0.02	9	58%	0.02	3	-0.12	8	62%	-0.03
Darrell Armstrong	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11	-0.01	-0.09	0.01	14	54%	-0.05	2	-0.06	7	100%	0.06
Ike Austin	-0.19	0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.38,-0.38,-0.19	-0.16	-0.03	-0.01	9	33%	-0.01	4	-0.18	6	67%	-0.01

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Alvin Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.08	0.03	0.01	5	100%	0.14	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Tracy McGrady	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.00	0.03	-0.03	11	50%	0.09	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Slater	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
John Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	1	75%	0.02	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Michael Stewart	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dee Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.07	-0.01	8	50%	-0.04	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Doug Christie	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1	-0.10	-0.06	-0.04	0.00	8	44%	-0.01	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Charles Oakley	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12	-0.12	-0.09	-0.04	-0.01	5	20%	-0.05	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Vince Carter	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.18,-0.12,-0.17,-0.17,-0.1,0,-0.08,-0.18	-0.18	-0.06	-0.11	0.01	20	47%	0.04	4	-0.21	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Willis	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.21,-0.19	-0.19	-0.06	-0.14	-0.01	21	47%	-0.13	3	-0.06	3	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.7	2.4	28.7	15.6	26.3	2.3	41.5	139.6
league avg	26.9	3.0	42.0	16.0	26.3	2.2	45.7	163.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +14.2%

ORL +14.1%

ORL +29.2%

TOR -7.2%

TOR -0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	TOR	NBA	ORL	TOR	NBA
this game	15.0	16.6	15.8	98.9	91.3	99.6
season	16.1	15.6		98.0	99.0
opponent	15.9	15.6		101.2	95.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	16.9	14.0	13.4	15.8	15.0
TOR	15.2	20.2	17.9	13.6	16.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Horace Grant	63	64	0.76	-0.26	1.03	0.59	6	-1	7	14.2	17.0	-2.79	15.8	18.3	-2.44
Anfernee Hardaway	76	75	0.67	-0.17	0.83	0.34	11	-6	17	15.6	12.3	3.27	16.6	16.5	0.14
Ike Austin	62	62	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.47	2	3	-1	15.5	14.1	1.41	17.4	14.9	2.45
Nick Anderson	76	77	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.31	3	2	1	15.0	15.4	-0.37	16.1	19.0	-2.88
Darrell Armstrong	55	59	0.27	0.23	0.03	0.21	2	3	-1	15.3	14.7	0.59	15.8	18.1	-2.30
Matt Harpring	33	36	0.04	0.46	-0.42	-0.02	2	3	-1	14.7	15.2	-0.50	18.2	15.6	2.60
Derek Strong	21	23	0.03	0.47	-0.44	-0.06	3	2	1	15.4	14.9	0.50	14.2	17.4	-3.16
Bo Outlaw	64	64	-0.19	0.69	-0.88	-0.07	-4	9	-13	14.7	15.8	-1.02	17.8	13.8	4.03

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tracy McGrady	42	41	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.02	1	-6	7	15.5	17.5	-2.09	15.5	14.7	0.86
Reggie Slater	4	4	-0.02	-0.48	0.47	0.01	-1	-4	3	12.5	16.8	-4.27	15.5	15.0	0.48
Alvin Williams	68	65	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.37	8	-13	21	16.6	16.6	0.00	16.2	12.0	4.27
Kevin Willis	78	77	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.37	7	-12	19	16.5	16.9	-0.32	15.8	10.6	5.18
John Wallace	15	14	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.07	-4	-1	-3	15.0	16.9	-1.90	11.3	15.7	-4.45
Michael Stewart	12	12	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	-0.06	-7	2	-9	16.8	16.5	0.28	13.1	15.3	-2.26
Dee Brown	53	53	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.10	-9	4	-13	15.7	17.8	-2.10	13.8	16.8	-2.91
Doug Christie	56	53	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.28	-6	1	-7	17.1	15.9	1.19	14.8	15.4	-0.52
Vince Carter	77	77	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.37	-3	-2	-1	16.7	16.0	0.70	14.8	16.6	-1.84
Charles Oakley	55	54	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.15	-11	6	-17	18.4	13.9	4.55	15.3	14.6	0.72

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.61,0.65,0.66,0.71,0.69,0.67,0.66,0.66,0.68,0.66,0.6,0.62,0.54,0.54,0.52,0.48,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.43,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.23,0.19,0.18,0.15,0.14,0.15,0.1,0.08,0.18,0.2,0.28,0.36,0.49,0.4,0.39,0.45,0.78,0.42,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHA 105, NJN 103	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.54,0.63,0.59,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.49,0.56,0.58,0.6,0.59,0.49,0.54,0.64,0.64,0.59,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.55,0.52,0.42,0.29,0.38,0.28,0.2,0.19,0.25,0.26,0.22,0.18,0.2,0.23,0.26,0.34,0.33,0.39,0.37,0.55,0.16,0	90.4%
CHH 93, ATL 92	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.55,0.62,0.66,0.67,0.7,0.64,0.62,0.66,0.65,0.64,0.56,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.66,0.71,0.61,0.56,0.46,0.44,0.45,0.41,0.43,0.39,0.25,0.22,0.18,0.06,0.11,0.13,0.12,0.09,0.15,0.1,0.15,0.29,0.15,0.3,0.27,0.28,0.39,0.28,0.43,0.41,0	90.4%
LAC 95, NOP 89	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.57,0.59,0.63,0.57,0.59,0.6,0.55,0.64,0.62,0.63,0.62,0.62,0.64,0.62,0.65,0.59,0.56,0.59,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.37,0.4,0.36,0.45,0.42,0.32,0.23,0.34,0.26,0.26,0.19,0.19,0.13,0.18,0.24,0.27,0.37,0.41,0.4,0.25,0.46,0.33,0.15,0	90.1%