NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	98		Excitement	4.2 [933]		MVP	Alonzo Mourning (MIA): +5.9%
Denver Nuggets	79		Comeback	1.1 [1224]		LVP	Tim Hardaway (MIA): -13.0%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Alonzo Mourning	0.06	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.08	-0.00	0.02	15	69%	0.12	2	-0.06	6	50%	-0.03
Dan Majerle	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.06	0.00	0.02	4	100%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
P.J. Brown	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,-0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	0.00	0.01	9	76%	0.09	3	-0.06	7	100%	0.03
Jamal Mashburn	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.04	0.00	-0.04	8	50%	0.04	2	-0.03	2	0%	0.00
Keith Askins	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Terry Mills	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.04	0.00	-0.03	4	58%	0.02	2	-0.02	4	75%	0.00
Mark Strickland	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.05	0.00	-0.03	3	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Voshon Lenard	-0.03	0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.00	-0.00	0.03	11	50%	-0.03	0	0.00	6	50%	-0.05
Eric Murdock	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	0.00	0.01	3	67%	0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Ike Austin	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tim Hardaway	-0.13	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.14	-0.01	-0.03	11	43%	-0.03	5	-0.10	6	50%	-0.04

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kiwane Garris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Battie	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	8	44%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Joe Wolf	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	3	37%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Johnny Newman	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.02	-0.01	6	43%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Bobby Jackson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.06	-0.01	-0.03	12	47%	-0.01	2	-0.03	6	83%	0.01
Harold Ellis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	0.01	6	33%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Goldwire	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.00	0.02	7	37%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Dean Garrett	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.03	-0.03	0.02	9	45%	-0.05	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Danny Fortson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.10	-0.00	-0.01	5	29%	-0.06	2	-0.03	4	100%	0.03
Eric Washington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.15	-0.01	-0.05	11	25%	-0.07	3	-0.04	2	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.0	2.7	31.4	15.4	26.4	2.3	27.7	131.0
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +60.2%

DEN -2.7%

MIA +15.4%

DEN -18.4%

DEN -4.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	DEN	NBA	MIA	DEN	NBA
this game	15.2	17.5	15.6	111.4	89.8	102.5
season	15.8	16.2		104.7	96.7
opponent	15.2	16.2		109.5	99.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	12.2	16.8	15.4	16.2	15.2
DEN	20.5	15.9	19.6	14.4	17.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
P.J. Brown	61	61	0.65	-0.15	0.81	-0.05	24	-5	29	14.4	17.0	-2.68	19.0	14.4	4.58
Tim Hardaway	65	65	0.59	-0.09	0.68	-0.23	28	-9	37	14.7	16.5	-1.76	18.2	15.7	2.45
Jamal Mashburn	68	70	0.55	-0.05	0.61	-0.27	28	-9	37	13.6	20.4	-6.82	17.5	17.8	-0.29
Alonzo Mourning	58	58	0.48	0.02	0.46	-0.14	21	-2	23	15.8	13.9	1.89	18.6	15.5	3.10
Voshon Lenard	55	54	0.47	0.03	0.44	-0.20	23	-4	27	13.4	18.1	-4.65	18.1	16.6	1.46
Ike Austin	9	11	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.03	0	19	-19	15.0	15.2	-0.20	21.2	17.0	4.16
Mark Strickland	15	14	0.02	0.48	-0.47	0.10	-3	22	-25	13.7	15.5	-1.75	13.7	18.3	-4.56
Eric Murdock	33	32	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.10	-4	23	-27	17.2	14.0	3.15	15.1	19.0	-3.90
Dan Majerle	39	40	-0.04	0.54	-0.59	0.07	-4	23	-27	18.0	12.9	5.11	16.7	18.2	-1.55
Keith Askins	8	7	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	0.12	-8	27	-35	24.4	14.3	10.11	18.6	17.5	1.11
Terry Mills	29	28	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	0.17	-10	29	-39	15.8	14.9	0.91	14.1	19.1	-4.99

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Harold Ellis	32	31	0.05	-0.55	0.60	-0.24	10	-29	39	16.1	18.4	-2.23	16.4	14.5	1.91
Joe Wolf	14	15	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.14	5	-24	29	12.8	18.4	-5.66	11.8	15.9	-4.08
Kiwane Garris	6	6	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.03	-1	-18	17	9.2	18.2	-8.99	7.3	15.8	-8.42
Johnny Newman	27	29	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.00	-3	-16	13	20.0	16.5	3.54	15.9	14.8	1.07
Tony Battie	51	53	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	-0.05	-2	-17	15	16.2	19.4	-3.26	15.5	14.7	0.73
Bobby Jackson	60	63	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.03	-7	-12	5	17.3	18.1	-0.88	16.2	12.6	3.61
Anthony Goldwire	38	36	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	0.20	-17	-2	-15	18.3	16.9	1.40	15.9	14.7	1.24
Danny Fortson	36	36	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	0.04	-14	-5	-9	19.6	16.1	3.45	15.3	15.1	0.26
Eric Washington	52	49	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	0.15	-18	-1	-17	16.5	19.1	-2.65	14.1	16.5	-2.39
Dean Garrett	59	57	-0.62	0.12	-0.74	0.26	-30	11	-41	19.3	13.9	5.44	15.0	15.5	-0.57

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.46,0.38,0.33,0.33,0.31,0.27,0.27,0.22,0.19,0.22,0.2,0.25,0.24,0.28,0.32,0.34,0.31,0.21,0.27,0.3,0.29,0.2,0.27,0.27,0.3,0.21,0.17,0.16,0.13,0.11,0.07,0.08,0.05,0.06,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 95, CHH 77	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.43,0.4,0.4,0.32,0.33,0.35,0.35,0.29,0.28,0.28,0.29,0.21,0.23,0.23,0.3,0.27,0.29,0.3,0.31,0.27,0.25,0.3,0.28,0.31,0.33,0.24,0.18,0.13,0.08,0.09,0.08,0.11,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.7%
ORL 97, NJN 87	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.38,0.4,0.37,0.34,0.31,0.33,0.29,0.23,0.28,0.27,0.29,0.33,0.22,0.22,0.23,0.24,0.22,0.25,0.27,0.3,0.23,0.14,0.18,0.25,0.21,0.18,0.22,0.16,0.1,0.12,0.08,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.3%
CHH 106, TOR 89	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.46,0.43,0.41,0.43,0.38,0.36,0.37,0.35,0.31,0.3,0.28,0.21,0.22,0.23,0.23,0.24,0.37,0.39,0.35,0.33,0.25,0.18,0.22,0.29,0.26,0.25,0.22,0.19,0.16,0.12,0.14,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.3%