NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	95		Excitement	8.8 [144]		MVP	Dennis Scott (ORL): +38.9%
Orlando Magic	100		Comeback	5.6 [695]		LVP	Latrell Sprewell (GSW): -28.3%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Donyell Marshall	0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.06	0.00	0.01	7	75%	0.07	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Todd Fuller	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andrew DeClercq	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	7	50%	-0.01	1	0.00	4	75%	-0.02
Joe Smith	-0.03	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.08,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.02	-0.03	0.01	17	60%	0.04	3	-0.07	6	100%	0.05
Mark Price	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03	0.01	-0.03	0.01	10	55%	0.00	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Chris Mullin	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	7	44%	-0.01	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Scott Burrell	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Felton Spencer	-0.07	0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	0.00	3	87%	0.06	5	-0.14	2	50%	-0.01
Latrell Sprewell	-0.28	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,0.02,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.07,-0.17,-0.28,-0.28	-0.08	-0.21	-0.01	16	58%	-0.02	7	-0.26	6	50%	-0.15

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dennis Scott	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.07,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.08,0.08,0.39	0.39	0.16	0.24	0.01	12	78%	0.39	0	0.00	3	100%	0.03
Rony Seikaly	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1	0.10	0.08	0.04	0.02	18	65%	0.19	2	-0.08	7	86%	0.01
Nick Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.01	0.06	-0.00	5	50%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Horace Grant	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.1,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.03	0.06	-0.01	11	48%	0.09	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.01
Gerald Wilkins	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	9	50%	0.05	2	-0.08	2	50%	-0.01
Brian Shaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	5	29%	-0.07	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Anfernee Hardaway	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.15,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,0.01,-0.11	-0.11	-0.04	-0.06	0.01	17	53%	0.00	4	-0.11	4	100%	0.03
Derek Strong	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.09	-0.05	-0.00	5	8%	-0.13	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.4	2.4	30.4	15.6	25.4	1.8	32.2	129.2
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +25.7%

ORL +8.3%

GSW -17.8%

ORL +25.0%

ORL +8.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	ORL	NBA	GSW	ORL	NBA
this game	15.9	16.6	15.6	108.0	112.4	104.4
season	15.0	16.4		104.4	102.9
opponent	15.5	15.4		103.5	109.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	15.2	13.9	16.1	19.3	15.9
ORL	14.2	16.8	16.6	19.6	16.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Donyell Marshall	42	42	0.14	-0.64	0.77	-0.01	5	-10	15	14.3	17.4	-3.08	15.7	17.5	-1.80
Andrew DeClercq	29	29	0.10	-0.60	0.70	0.22	-4	-1	-3	17.9	14.9	2.95	16.9	16.5	0.46
Todd Fuller	12	12	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	0.02	-2	-3	1	21.2	15.1	6.17	15.7	16.8	-1.00
Scott Burrell	28	29	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.04	-7	2	-9	15.1	16.3	-1.19	15.3	17.3	-1.99
Mark Price	74	76	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.39	1	-6	7	15.6	17.6	-1.96	17.4	12.2	5.23
Joe Smith	75	76	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.36	-1	-4	3	15.9	16.2	-0.27	16.8	15.4	1.44
Latrell Sprewell	74	73	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.28	-4	-1	-3	16.5	12.6	3.90	16.4	17.8	-1.46
Chris Mullin	59	60	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.39	-1	-4	3	16.4	15.0	1.32	17.1	15.7	1.43
Felton Spencer	47	48	-0.89	0.39	-1.28	-0.54	-12	7	-19	14.3	17.8	-3.48	16.6	16.7	-0.12

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brian Shaw	52	52	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.35	8	-3	11	17.2	15.8	1.34	16.9	14.5	2.45
Anfernee Hardaway	72	71	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.33	8	-3	11	16.6	16.7	-0.11	16.2	14.9	1.29
Rony Seikaly	79	78	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.33	5	0	5	17.1	13.1	3.96	16.3	12.8	3.52
Dennis Scott	56	58	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.19	6	-1	7	16.8	16.2	0.60	16.7	14.5	2.21
Horace Grant	73	73	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.39	-3	8	-11	16.5	17.1	-0.54	15.3	19.1	-3.79
Nick Anderson	34	31	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.06	7	-2	9	15.7	17.2	-1.48	15.7	16.1	-0.38
Derek Strong	25	25	0.21	0.29	-0.07	-0.02	8	-3	11	15.8	16.9	-1.14	16.6	15.7	0.89
Gerald Wilkins	54	52	-0.27	0.77	-1.05	0.14	-14	19	-33	16.3	17.1	-0.77	13.9	18.9	-4.98

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.52,0.53,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.47,0.55,0.53,0.56,0.6,0.59,0.58,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.46,0.44,0.36,0.33,0.2,0.21,0.2,0.3,0.36,0.33,0.29,0.38,0.38,0.34,0.48,0.4,0.5,0.7,0.57,0.62,0.63,0.53,0.47,0.39,0.4,0.45,0.33,0.58,1
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 85, BOS 87	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.53,0.52,0.5,0.46,0.47,0.55,0.55,0.62,0.58,0.6,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.42,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.33,0.3,0.18,0.21,0.18,0.17,0.19,0.29,0.26,0.26,0.33,0.41,0.37,0.32,0.3,0.38,0.43,0.58,0.58,0.47,0.41,0.4,0.32,0.28,0.22,0.42,1	90.6%
NJN 99, NYK 101	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.54,0.57,0.54,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.59,0.57,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.47,0.4,0.42,0.37,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.39,0.44,0.43,0.37,0.34,0.34,0.28,0.22,0.29,0.29,0.32,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.64,0.54,0.52,0.43,0.67,0.63,0.53,0.47,0.54,0.32,0.46,0.43,0.72,1	90.2%
MIN 109, DAL 112	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.53,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.52,0.44,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.39,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.39,0.33,0.3,0.23,0.23,0.33,0.39,0.48,0.42,0.48,0.38,0.31,0.23,0.36,0.58,0.7,0.79,0.76,0.58,0.53,0.41,0.17,0.25,0.15,0.22,0.58,1	89.8%