NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	109		Excitement	9.1 [127]		MVP	Dirk Nowitzki (DAL): +53.4%
Dallas Mavericks	112		Comeback	12.9 [161]		LVP	Anthony Peeler (MIN): -20.5%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Troy Hudson	0.31	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,0.07,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.21,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31	0.16	0.19	0.04	23	65%	0.33	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Kevin Garnett	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.11,0,0.15	0.07	0.08	0.00	24	57%	0.18	1	-0.03	6	50%	-0.06
Wally Szczerbiak	0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.04,0.04	-0.01	0.02	-0.02	12	54%	0.07	2	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Rasho Nesterovic	0.00	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	0.00	0.01	8	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Marc Jackson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gary Trent	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Joe Smith	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.04,-0.04	0.07	-0.08	0.02	13	64%	-0.03	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Igor Rakocevic	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	0	0%	0.00	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Kendall Gill	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.08	-0.03	-0.02	4	0%	-0.09	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Peeler	-0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.21	-0.04	-0.16	0.00	5	20%	-0.21	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.23,0.34,0.53	0.53	0.14	0.40	0.00	19	71%	0.56	2	-0.03	7	86%	0.03
Steve Nash	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.24	0.24	0.10	0.16	0.02	18	64%	0.27	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.02
Michael Finley	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.01	-0.01	17	47%	0.05	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Adrian Griffin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Walt Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	-0.02	0.00	4	60%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Shawn Bradley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.03	-0.05	0.00	2	33%	-0.08	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Raef LaFrentz	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1	-0.10	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	14	42%	-0.08	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.00
Nick Van Exel	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.13	-0.13	-0.04	-0.10	-0.00	16	42%	-0.13	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.8	3.0	24.3	19.6	31.0	3.6	32.4	137.7
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +32.3%

DAL +12.2%

MIN -4.9%

DAL +12.4%

MIN -2.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	DAL	NBA	MIN	DAL	NBA
this game	16.3	14.8	15.5	118.5	120.4	101.6
season	14.9	15.1		104.0	108.6
opponent	15.3	15.8		102.0	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	16.3	16.6	16.4	16.0	16.3
DAL	15.0	17.7	12.4	14.7	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marc Jackson	13	12	0.01	-0.51	0.51	0.01	0	-3	3	18.8	15.9	2.87	17.2	14.5	2.77
Gary Trent	10	10	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	0.03	-4	1	-5	19.5	15.9	3.59	15.4	14.8	0.63
Anthony Peeler	38	40	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.40	10	-13	23	14.3	17.7	-3.48	14.1	15.4	-1.30
Igor Rakocevic	14	14	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.19	2	-5	7	15.3	16.5	-1.20	15.9	14.6	1.28
Joe Smith	74	73	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.34	5	-8	13	15.9	17.8	-1.90	14.7	15.3	-0.65
Rasho Nesterovic	44	46	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.04	-10	7	-17	17.2	15.4	1.81	15.1	14.6	0.45
Wally Szczerbiak	69	70	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.38	0	-3	3	16.5	15.6	0.93	15.1	14.2	0.88
Troy Hudson	79	80	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.24	-5	2	-7	16.3	16.2	0.09	14.5	16.7	-2.15
Kendall Gill	30	30	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.09	-12	9	-21	17.1	15.9	1.18	14.4	15.1	-0.70
Kevin Garnett	89	90	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.42	-1	-2	1	16.0	25.3	-9.33	14.9	14.0	0.87

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dirk Nowitzki	81	79	0.80	-0.30	1.10	0.36	15	-12	27	14.3	18.3	-4.01	16.7	13.8	2.86
Raef LaFrentz	77	77	0.75	-0.25	1.00	0.54	7	-4	11	14.9	14.6	0.26	16.2	17.1	-0.91
Michael Finley	84	84	0.71	-0.21	0.92	0.39	11	-8	19	14.5	18.3	-3.87	16.6	13.0	3.62
Nick Van Exel	77	75	0.60	-0.10	0.69	0.39	7	-4	11	14.7	15.5	-0.80	16.2	16.7	-0.49
Steve Nash	74	71	0.21	0.29	-0.09	0.32	-4	7	-11	14.8	14.9	-0.07	16.0	17.2	-1.15
Shawn Bradley	27	27	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	0.01	-5	8	-13	15.3	14.7	0.64	17.1	16.0	1.19
Adrian Griffin	25	27	-0.18	0.68	-0.87	0.08	-9	12	-21	16.2	14.3	1.92	15.4	16.7	-1.22
Walt Williams	20	20	-0.24	0.74	-0.98	-0.03	-7	10	-17	16.5	14.4	2.18	15.2	16.6	-1.35

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.53,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.52,0.44,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.39,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.39,0.33,0.3,0.23,0.23,0.33,0.39,0.48,0.42,0.48,0.38,0.31,0.23,0.36,0.58,0.7,0.79,0.76,0.58,0.53,0.41,0.17,0.25,0.15,0.22,0.58,1
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 94, BOS 99	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.47,0.45,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.46,0.35,0.42,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.51,0.46,0.36,0.33,0.36,0.36,0.37,0.29,0.34,0.3,0.42,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.41,0.52,0.71,0.66,0.7,0.71,0.72,0.68,0.53,0.53,0.28,0.25,0.1,0.16,0.47,1	90.4%
GSW 95, ORL 100	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.52,0.53,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.47,0.55,0.53,0.56,0.6,0.59,0.58,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.46,0.44,0.36,0.33,0.2,0.21,0.2,0.3,0.36,0.33,0.29,0.38,0.38,0.34,0.48,0.4,0.5,0.7,0.57,0.62,0.63,0.53,0.47,0.39,0.4,0.45,0.33,0.58,1	89.8%
PHI 106, SAC 107	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.46,0.45,0.41,0.42,0.43,0.39,0.45,0.37,0.47,0.42,0.4,0.38,0.42,0.38,0.4,0.42,0.49,0.56,0.46,0.42,0.31,0.36,0.3,0.32,0.28,0.31,0.27,0.29,0.38,0.36,0.55,0.59,0.52,0.6,0.62,0.66,0.79,0.8,0.81,0.59,0.35,0.39,0.47,0.21,0.23,0.59,1	88.6%