NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	92		Excitement	6.4 [500]		MVP	Tim Hardaway (MIA): +23.1%
New Jersey Nets	87		Comeback	2.0 [1112]		LVP	Chris Gatling (NJN): -17.6%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Hardaway	0.23	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.22,0.24,0.26,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.24,0.24,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.14	0.10	0.00	24	65%	0.30	2	-0.07	6	100%	0.04
Ike Austin	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.02	0.00	5	83%	0.08	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
John Crotty	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.00	0.04	-0.01	6	50%	0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
P.J. Brown	-0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.02	-0.02	12	32%	-0.08	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Jamal Mashburn	-0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.14	0.01	-0.03	11	36%	-0.04	3	-0.06	6	67%	-0.02
Voshon Lenard	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.09	-0.02	0.01	6	42%	-0.02	4	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	-0.15	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18,-0.15,-0.15	-0.10	-0.06	-0.01	14	50%	-0.03	5	-0.12	4	50%	-0.02

New Jersey Nets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eric Montross	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	0.02	0.01	7	67%	0.05	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Sam Cassell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.01	0.01	15	55%	0.05	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.01
Xavier McDaniel	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0	100%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Kevin Edwards	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.05	-0.04	0.00	4	25%	-0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kerry Kittles	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.03	-0.06	-0.00	17	42%	-0.05	1	-0.04	2	50%	0.01
Jayson Williams	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.09	-0.02	-0.01	10	20%	-0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jim Jackson	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.10	-0.02	-0.02	9	25%	-0.09	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.02
Kendall Gill	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.07	-0.02	0.01	17	44%	-0.06	2	-0.05	5	100%	0.02
Chris Gatling	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.09,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.11	-0.05	0.01	17	37%	-0.08	3	-0.09	1	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	20.9	1.7	26.1	14.8	23.2	2.3	28.3	117.3
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +55.5%

MIA +3.4%

NJN -1.8%

NJN -14.8%

MIA +7.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	NJN	NBA	MIA	NJN	NBA
this game	15.2	16.8	15.6	102.2	96.7	104.4
season	15.8	15.4		103.1	101.7
opponent	14.9	16.3		106.6	98.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	13.9	15.4	14.8	16.8	15.2
NJN	17.4	14.6	17.9	17.5	16.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Alonzo Mourning	79	79	0.68	-0.18	0.86	0.24	15	-10	25	14.7	19.1	-4.43	17.1	14.5	2.67
Tim Hardaway	81	83	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.21	9	-4	13	15.1	15.8	-0.64	16.8	16.6	0.25
Jamal Mashburn	78	77	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.27	3	2	1	15.2	15.0	0.23	16.4	18.9	-2.48
Ike Austin	36	36	0.29	0.21	0.07	0.14	5	0	5	15.3	15.1	0.13	16.7	16.9	-0.18
John Crotty	36	35	0.28	0.23	0.05	0.30	-1	6	-7	15.9	14.7	1.15	15.6	17.5	-1.92
P.J. Brown	70	70	0.22	0.28	-0.07	0.39	-6	11	-17	15.7	13.4	2.31	17.2	15.4	1.80
Voshon Lenard	70	70	0.21	0.29	-0.07	0.21	0	5	-5	14.9	16.1	-1.16	17.0	15.9	1.09

New Jersey Nets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eric Montross	56	55	0.01	-0.51	0.53	-0.19	7	-12	19	16.8	16.8	-0.04	16.2	13.7	2.52
Xavier McDaniel	2	2	0.01	-0.51	0.52	0.01	0	-5	5	8.0	17.0	-9.00	26.5	14.9	11.56
Sam Cassell	47	50	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.27	2	-7	9	14.1	19.7	-5.59	15.5	14.8	0.63
Jim Jackson	56	54	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.07	-8	3	-11	18.3	14.3	4.07	15.2	15.1	0.10
Kendall Gill	71	71	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.30	0	-5	5	16.7	17.3	-0.59	15.0	15.8	-0.81
Kerry Kittles	73	71	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.34	1	-6	7	17.1	15.5	1.57	15.2	15.4	-0.21
Kevin Edwards	23	24	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.08	-10	5	-15	18.0	16.4	1.55	15.2	15.2	-0.05
Chris Gatling	67	68	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	-0.38	-4	-1	-3	15.9	19.4	-3.48	14.7	16.8	-2.08
Jayson Williams	55	55	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.15	-13	8	-21	18.2	14.6	3.65	14.4	16.4	-1.96

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.57,0.59,0.56,0.49,0.43,0.47,0.42,0.42,0.44,0.43,0.36,0.34,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.42,0.42,0.44,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.5,0.48,0.58,0.66,0.61,0.58,0.58,0.52,0.45,0.52,0.56,0.48,0.38,0.34,0.38,0.28,0.16,0.08,0.06,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.09,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 115, TOR 94	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.47,0.45,0.39,0.37,0.45,0.45,0.38,0.4,0.4,0.36,0.3,0.4,0.42,0.37,0.39,0.44,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.62,0.52,0.55,0.61,0.58,0.58,0.55,0.45,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.42,0.34,0.18,0.17,0.09,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.1%
NYK 92, ATL 79	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.42,0.4,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.37,0.39,0.4,0.37,0.36,0.37,0.36,0.38,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.46,0.39,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.39,0.49,0.55,0.6,0.66,0.58,0.58,0.55,0.48,0.48,0.56,0.48,0.4,0.26,0.3,0.34,0.33,0.15,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0	93.1%
BOS 96, MIL 89	0.5,0.5,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.43,0.41,0.35,0.41,0.39,0.4,0.36,0.37,0.37,0.4,0.42,0.46,0.44,0.42,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.56,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.6,0.61,0.67,0.7,0.65,0.62,0.66,0.44,0.52,0.56,0.38,0.43,0.29,0.16,0.18,0.07,0.09,0.04,0.1,0.05,0.01,0,0	93.0%