NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	96		Excitement	6.0 [650]		MVP	Al Horford (BOS): +29.3%
Milwaukee Bucks	89		Comeback	2.4 [310]		LVP	Greg Monroe (MIL): -5.4%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Al Horford	0.29	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29	0.17	0.12	0.00	14	93%	0.40	4	-0.11	1	100%	0.00
Kyrie Irving	0.09	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.01	0.01	18	63%	0.14	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Jayson Tatum	0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.05	0.03	-0.00	6	71%	0.11	2	-0.02	5	100%	0.02
Jaylen Brown	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.07	0.05	-0.05	10	35%	0.05	1	-0.02	6	50%	-0.04
Aron Baynes	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	6	67%	0.08	2	-0.05	6	100%	0.04
Terry Rozier	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.07	0.03	-0.02	9	22%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shane Larkin	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Semi Ojeleye	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Daniel Theis	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.06	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Smart	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.07	0.01	-0.01	10	36%	-0.00	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.00

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tony Snell	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.07	0.01	-0.03	7	79%	0.08	1	0.03	0	0%	0.00
Malcolm Brogdon	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.02	12	56%	0.05	2	-0.05	3	33%	-0.03
Thon Maker	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	4	37%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Giannis Antetokounmpo	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.1,0.13,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.06	-0.03	0.05	21	57%	0.09	3	-0.10	7	86%	0.02
Mirza Teletovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.06	0.02	-0.02	5	30%	0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
DeAndre Liggins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.04
John Henson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	50%	-0.00	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Khris Middleton	0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	16	47%	0.04	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Matthew Dellavedova	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	4	62%	0.02	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Greg Monroe	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	8	50%	0.03	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.5	3.3	26.4	16.4	25.9	1.8	28.2	131.4
league avg	25.1	2.3	28.6	15.0	27.2	2.3	32.6	134.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +27.5%

BOS +11.8%

BOS +4.8%

BOS +5.0%

BOS +0.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	MIL	NBA	BOS	MIL	NBA
this game	16.4	12.6	14.7	97.0	89.9	107.5
season	15.1	14.3		106.4	108.5
opponent	15.4	14.7		108.9	103.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	13.1	17.9	16.0	19.0	16.4
MIL	14.3	12.8	11.1	12.0	12.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Aron Baynes	49	44	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.28	12	-5	17	16.9	15.9	1.04	12.6	12.6	-0.03
Marcus Smart	54	51	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.36	7	0	7	17.8	14.8	2.96	12.8	12.4	0.41
Jayson Tatum	60	60	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.08	8	-1	9	15.0	18.6	-3.55	12.6	12.7	-0.10
Jaylen Brown	70	71	0.27	0.23	0.05	0.13	5	2	3	16.5	16.2	0.24	12.2	13.6	-1.40
Terry Rozier	46	45	0.25	0.25	-0.00	0.22	1	6	-5	15.4	17.3	-1.83	12.2	12.9	-0.66
Kyrie Irving	67	71	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.11	4	3	1	17.2	14.7	2.55	12.9	11.8	1.09
Al Horford	69	71	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.14	2	5	-3	17.0	15.0	1.98	12.8	12.0	0.85
Semi Ojeleye	31	30	0.17	0.33	-0.17	0.23	-2	9	-11	15.9	16.7	-0.79	11.9	12.9	-0.97
Shane Larkin	12	11	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	0.05	-3	10	-13	14.2	16.7	-2.46	11.5	12.7	-1.19
Daniel Theis	37	41	-0.08	0.58	-0.67	-0.11	1	6	-5	15.6	16.9	-1.22	13.3	12.1	1.26

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
John Henson	29	29	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.20	7	-14	21	12.8	12.5	0.22	20.5	14.7	5.75
Malcolm Brogdon	71	71	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	-0.15	3	-10	13	12.5	12.8	-0.25	17.4	14.0	3.37
Mirza Teletovic	37	38	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	-0.19	0	-7	7	11.7	13.2	-1.49	15.1	17.3	-2.21
Thon Maker	33	31	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	0.13	-11	4	-15	13.5	12.2	1.27	13.8	17.6	-3.84
Khris Middleton	71	69	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.12	-3	-4	1	12.6	12.6	0.05	17.0	15.1	1.93
Greg Monroe	36	39	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.20	-1	-6	5	12.1	12.9	-0.87	15.5	17.0	-1.53
Tony Snell	49	51	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.22	-1	-6	5	12.3	12.9	-0.55	17.8	14.9	2.95
DeAndre Liggins	35	34	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.09	-8	1	-9	13.4	12.2	1.18	14.4	17.5	-3.09
Matthew Dellavedova	47	48	-0.52	0.02	-0.53	-0.19	-11	4	-15	12.5	12.7	-0.22	14.9	17.8	-2.87
Giannis Antetokounmpo	87	85	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.24	-10	3	-13	12.8	11.1	1.73	16.5	15.6	0.90

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.5,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.43,0.41,0.35,0.41,0.39,0.4,0.36,0.37,0.37,0.4,0.42,0.46,0.44,0.42,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.56,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.6,0.61,0.67,0.7,0.65,0.62,0.66,0.44,0.52,0.56,0.38,0.43,0.29,0.16,0.18,0.07,0.09,0.04,0.1,0.05,0.01,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 110, PHI 102	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.5,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.35,0.42,0.36,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.66,0.6,0.66,0.67,0.71,0.79,0.71,0.59,0.66,0.56,0.52,0.46,0.44,0.34,0.21,0.15,0.1,0.12,0.1,0.07,0.04,0.03,0.05,0	93.2%
MIN 97, CHH 92	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.43,0.44,0.44,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.46,0.48,0.42,0.49,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.59,0.59,0.61,0.54,0.54,0.55,0.6,0.7,0.64,0.67,0.62,0.62,0.59,0.52,0.52,0.6,0.54,0.38,0.25,0.33,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.09,0.03,0.02,0.01,0,0	93.1%
CLE 115, TOR 94	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.47,0.45,0.39,0.37,0.45,0.45,0.38,0.4,0.4,0.36,0.3,0.4,0.42,0.37,0.39,0.44,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.62,0.52,0.55,0.61,0.58,0.58,0.55,0.45,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.42,0.34,0.18,0.17,0.09,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	93.1%