NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	91		Excitement	6.4 [510]		MVP	Tim Hardaway (MIA): +25.1%
Miami Heat	94		Comeback	1.1 [984]		LVP	Alonzo Mourning (MIA): -17.4%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Henry James	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.08	0.10	-0.01	0.00	6	100%	0.15	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Steven Smith	0.02	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	-0.00	17	56%	0.06	2	-0.04	5	80%	0.00
Eldridge Recasner	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ivano Newbill	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dikembe Mutombo	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,0,0.01,0	0.01	-0.01	0.01	6	68%	0.02	1	-0.03	16	69%	-0.03
Mookie Blaylock	-0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.14,-0.14,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.12,-0.16,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.00	16	53%	0.13	4	-0.14	0	0%	0.00
Christian Laettner	-0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	9	43%	-0.06	0	0.00	10	80%	0.01
Tyrone Corbin	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	5	36%	-0.01	2	-0.05	1	0%	-0.01
Jon Barry	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.07	-0.06	0.00	4	10%	-0.14	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Hardaway	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.28,0.25	0.25	0.11	0.14	0.00	21	57%	0.25	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Voshon Lenard	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.22,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.13	0.06	-0.01	11	83%	0.23	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
Ike Austin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.06	0.07	-0.00	9	70%	0.18	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Willie Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.02	0.06	0.00	7	53%	0.08	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Martin Muursepp	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Mark Strickland	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	0	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.02
Keith Askins	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
P.J. Brown	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	8	45%	0.01	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.00
John Crotty	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	2	60%	0.01	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.14	-0.05	-0.02	14	41%	-0.09	3	-0.09	9	56%	-0.07

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.4	2.7	26.2	15.5	25.5	1.8	33.1	131.3
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +50.1%

ATL -7.3%

ATL -9.2%

MIA +9.0%

MIA +7.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	MIA	NBA	ATL	MIA	NBA
this game	17.3	16.8	15.6	108.3	110.6	104.4
season	16.4	15.8		105.3	103.1
opponent	16.3	16.0		98.3	100.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	17.5	14.1	17.4	20.4	17.3
MIA	14.6	18.6	17.7	16.5	16.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ivano Newbill	15	16	0.23	-0.73	0.96	-0.07	10	-13	23	15.2	17.7	-2.52	18.3	16.5	1.85
Jon Barry	14	13	0.02	-0.52	0.55	-0.12	5	-8	13	19.6	16.8	2.76	17.2	16.7	0.40
Eldridge Recasner	8	8	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	0.01	-4	1	-5	16.0	17.4	-1.41	18.1	16.7	1.45
Henry James	43	42	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	-0.43	9	-12	21	17.2	17.4	-0.23	17.5	16.2	1.31
Tyrone Corbin	48	51	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.06	-10	7	-17	16.8	17.9	-1.08	17.0	16.5	0.57
Mookie Blaylock	76	77	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.42	1	-4	5	17.4	16.0	1.41	16.7	18.1	-1.45
Steven Smith	70	72	-0.52	0.02	-0.55	-0.29	-8	5	-13	16.8	19.6	-2.76	16.7	17.2	-0.40
Christian Laettner	70	70	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.37	-6	3	-9	18.4	11.8	6.59	16.4	18.6	-2.17
Dikembe Mutombo	76	76	-0.67	0.17	-0.84	-0.32	-12	9	-21	17.0	19.6	-2.60	16.3	20.9	-4.56

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Alonzo Mourning	60	58	0.66	-0.16	0.82	0.16	17	-14	31	16.7	17.2	-0.49	17.5	16.7	0.84
Keith Askins	64	63	0.56	-0.06	0.61	0.18	13	-10	23	16.5	17.6	-1.07	16.2	20.4	-4.21
P.J. Brown	60	58	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.42	2	1	1	17.2	16.0	1.21	18.0	15.6	2.40
Voshon Lenard	66	65	0.44	0.06	0.39	0.09	12	-9	21	16.2	18.9	-2.75	17.1	17.9	-0.80
Tim Hardaway	74	74	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.41	-2	5	-7	16.6	18.1	-1.47	16.9	19.7	-2.75
John Crotty	17	17	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.09	1	2	-1	17.8	16.6	1.19	19.4	16.7	2.61
Ike Austin	32	34	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.08	1	2	-1	15.4	17.6	-2.20	18.5	16.5	2.01
Willie Anderson	36	36	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.52	-16	19	-35	18.5	15.6	2.98	18.2	16.6	1.61
Martin Muursepp	9	10	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	-0.02	-2	5	-7	16.4	16.9	-0.41	12.0	18.0	-5.99
Mark Strickland	7	5	-0.19	0.69	-0.88	0.13	-11	14	-25	20.9	16.4	4.41	14.8	17.4	-2.63

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.55,0.64,0.63,0.57,0.55,0.61,0.67,0.67,0.76,0.7,0.68,0.66,0.63,0.62,0.69,0.74,0.71,0.64,0.66,0.7,0.64,0.58,0.62,0.74,0.8,0.78,0.76,0.79,0.83,0.79,0.79,0.78,0.75,0.85,0.78,0.75,0.76,0.81,0.74,0.76,0.83,0.85,0.84,0.76,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 85, HOU 88	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.58,0.62,0.6,0.66,0.68,0.67,0.69,0.73,0.74,0.7,0.69,0.62,0.62,0.72,0.72,0.75,0.74,0.75,0.72,0.73,0.75,0.74,0.72,0.75,0.73,0.76,0.85,0.85,0.76,0.77,0.7,0.68,0.7,0.78,0.8,0.79,0.71,0.69,0.66,0.83,0.81,0.66,0.85,0.95,1	93.5%
CHA 85, ATL 90	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.58,0.59,0.61,0.61,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.53,0.6,0.6,0.65,0.67,0.61,0.72,0.71,0.7,0.69,0.61,0.7,0.78,0.74,0.78,0.73,0.73,0.74,0.86,0.84,0.85,0.87,0.82,0.87,0.87,0.86,0.8,0.72,0.79,0.76,0.78,0.92,0.85,0.84,0.95,1	93.4%
TOR 103, IND 111	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.64,0.61,0.63,0.66,0.68,0.62,0.68,0.68,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.68,0.6,0.67,0.63,0.65,0.71,0.67,0.75,0.73,0.58,0.59,0.74,0.78,0.7,0.76,0.89,0.88,0.86,0.82,0.81,0.75,0.7,0.66,0.79,0.71,0.68,0.59,0.71,0.78,0.93,0.9,0.93,1,1	93.4%