NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	85		Excitement	6.6 [391]		MVP	Kyle Lowry (HOU): +23.5%
Houston Rockets	88		Comeback	1.1 [966]		LVP	Jerryd Bayless (TOR): -17.9%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ed Davis	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.04	0.04	-0.00	2	83%	0.08	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Amir Johnson	0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.02	0.03	0.00	7	71%	0.09	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Gray	0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	67%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
James Johnson	-0.01	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.02	12	57%	0.04	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.02
Jose Calderon	-0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	9	39%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamaal Magloire	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	50%	-0.00	1	-0.03	2	0%	-0.03
DeMar DeRozan	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	14	50%	0.01	2	-0.04	6	83%	0.01
Leandro Barbosa	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.04	-0.07	0.00	9	61%	0.06	1	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Carter	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	3	33%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Linas Kleiza	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1	-0.07	-0.03	-0.00	10	32%	-0.07	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Jerryd Bayless	-0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.13	-0.06	-0.01	6	33%	-0.03	5	-0.15	0	0%	0.00

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kyle Lowry	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.2,0.16,0.12,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.24,0.24	0.24	0.18	0.06	-0.00	12	84%	0.32	3	-0.09	7	86%	0.02
Chandler Parsons	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	-0.00	0.10	-0.00	6	43%	0.10	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Samuel Dalembert	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.07	0.00	0.02	6	67%	0.05	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Greg Smith	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chase Budinger	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Patrick Patterson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.01	11	36%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Courtney Lee	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	-0.00	6	50%	-0.01	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Goran Dragic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.10	0.00	-0.01	7	14%	-0.04	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Martin	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09	-0.09	-0.11	0.03	0.01	15	37%	-0.01	3	-0.08	8	87%	0.00
Luis Scola	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1	-0.10	-0.07	-0.02	0.00	12	50%	0.05	5	-0.15	6	83%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.2	0.3	33.1	15.5	27.7	1.0	31.7	135.5
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +5.8%

HOU +22.2%

HOU +6.6%

HOU +12.1%

HOU +3.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	HOU	NBA	TOR	HOU	NBA
this game	15.7	14.8	15.6	89.5	93.6	102.8
season	16.5	15.4		98.9	103.5
opponent	15.5	15.2		103.2	102.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	18.1	14.4	14.0	16.7	15.7
HOU	13.8	13.8	14.2	17.6	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jamaal Magloire	33	31	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	-0.16	4	-7	11	15.7	15.7	-0.01	14.4	15.0	-0.57
Anthony Carter	23	23	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.22	4	-7	11	15.2	15.9	-0.64	18.0	13.7	4.34
DeMar DeRozan	58	56	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	0.01	-5	2	-7	15.2	16.5	-1.24	13.8	16.2	-2.47
Aaron Gray	36	37	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	0.02	-6	3	-9	15.3	16.0	-0.69	14.3	15.1	-0.77
Jose Calderon	48	48	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	0.02	-6	3	-9	15.7	15.7	0.05	13.8	15.7	-1.91
Leandro Barbosa	48	48	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.49	10	-13	23	16.0	15.4	0.60	15.9	13.6	2.27
Jerryd Bayless	24	23	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.21	-1	-2	1	16.1	15.6	0.56	13.4	15.2	-1.76
Linas Kleiza	38	38	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.34	3	-6	9	15.7	15.7	0.05	15.6	14.2	1.41
Ed Davis	43	44	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.19	-2	-1	-1	15.8	15.6	0.20	14.8	14.7	0.14
Amir Johnson	59	57	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.22	-4	1	-5	15.6	15.8	-0.16	14.4	15.4	-1.05
James Johnson	65	65	-0.63	0.13	-0.75	-0.27	-12	9	-21	16.1	14.8	1.32	15.1	14.1	1.01

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kyle Lowry	73	74	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.31	6	-3	9	15.2	13.3	1.91	16.0	14.8	1.15
Chandler Parsons	61	62	0.42	0.08	0.35	0.31	4	-1	5	15.1	14.1	1.04	15.6	15.9	-0.31
Courtney Lee	45	45	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.40	0	3	-3	15.5	14.1	1.43	16.1	15.4	0.73
Kevin Martin	64	66	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.14	5	-2	7	13.9	16.7	-2.84	15.0	17.3	-2.36
Patrick Patterson	48	47	0.28	0.22	0.05	0.34	-2	5	-7	14.0	15.6	-1.57	15.5	15.9	-0.34
Luis Scola	65	67	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.17	2	1	1	15.0	14.1	0.91	15.5	16.2	-0.77
Samuel Dalembert	54	55	0.20	0.30	-0.10	-0.04	8	-5	13	14.0	15.8	-1.80	15.8	15.6	0.14
Goran Dragic	37	37	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.31	-4	7	-11	15.3	14.4	0.92	16.6	15.1	1.46
Greg Smith	5	6	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.04	-1	4	-5	17.2	14.6	2.57	19.3	15.5	3.87
Chase Budinger	18	16	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.09	-3	6	-9	14.7	14.8	-0.12	14.7	15.9	-1.22

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.58,0.62,0.6,0.66,0.68,0.67,0.69,0.73,0.74,0.7,0.69,0.62,0.62,0.72,0.72,0.75,0.74,0.75,0.72,0.73,0.75,0.74,0.72,0.75,0.73,0.76,0.85,0.85,0.76,0.77,0.7,0.68,0.7,0.78,0.8,0.79,0.71,0.69,0.66,0.83,0.81,0.66,0.85,0.95,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 89, GSW 98	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.59,0.62,0.59,0.66,0.68,0.72,0.65,0.66,0.66,0.7,0.69,0.66,0.69,0.73,0.73,0.75,0.75,0.77,0.77,0.78,0.75,0.79,0.74,0.72,0.81,0.76,0.79,0.8,0.82,0.77,0.81,0.79,0.74,0.78,0.79,0.72,0.81,0.79,0.71,0.67,0.69,0.84,0.98,1,1	93.8%
GSW 74, SAS 76	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.52,0.54,0.56,0.61,0.67,0.66,0.69,0.67,0.64,0.65,0.66,0.71,0.68,0.75,0.74,0.74,0.77,0.71,0.69,0.75,0.7,0.7,0.74,0.69,0.72,0.76,0.67,0.77,0.74,0.73,0.7,0.67,0.75,0.85,0.87,0.85,0.71,0.85,0.79,0.71,0.86,0.75,0.78,0.78,0.85,1	93.6%
ATL 91, MIA 94	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.55,0.64,0.63,0.57,0.55,0.61,0.67,0.67,0.76,0.7,0.68,0.66,0.63,0.62,0.69,0.74,0.71,0.64,0.66,0.7,0.64,0.58,0.62,0.74,0.8,0.78,0.76,0.79,0.83,0.79,0.79,0.78,0.75,0.85,0.78,0.75,0.76,0.81,0.74,0.76,0.83,0.85,0.84,0.76,0.98,1	93.5%