NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	84		Excitement	8.3 [188]		MVP	Jerry Stackhouse (PHI): +7.9%
Philadelphia 76ers	79		Comeback	9.0 [74]		LVP	Allen Iverson (PHI): -46.2%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gary Grant	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	-0.00	0.06	0.00	3	62%	0.10	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Ike Austin	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.01	-0.00	5	77%	0.07	1	-0.02	3	67%	0.00
Tim Hardaway	0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.13,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.18,-0.18,0.04	-0.08	0.12	0.00	20	45%	0.10	2	-0.06	7	71%	-0.00
Alonzo Mourning	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.15,-0.14,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.02,-0.02	-0.05	0.04	0.01	14	59%	0.11	5	-0.13	6	67%	-0.04
Keith Askins	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Sasha Danilovic	-0.03	0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.07	0.03	-0.01	14	33%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
P.J. Brown	-0.12	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.07	-0.05	0.00	7	41%	-0.07	2	-0.06	3	33%	-0.02
Voshon Lenard	-0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.14,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.07	-0.14	-0.00	3	0%	-0.11	1	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Dan Majerle	-0.25	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.16,-0.25	-0.08	-0.17	0.00	11	37%	-0.19	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01

Philadelphia 76ers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jerry Stackhouse	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.1,0.08	0.08	-0.05	0.12	-0.01	17	47%	0.17	3	-0.09	2	50%	-0.01
Doug Overton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.03	0.00	1	100%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rex Walters	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Scott Williams	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Cage	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Clar. Weatherspoon	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.03	-0.03	0.01	10	68%	0.04	2	-0.06	8	87%	0.02
Mark Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.11	-0.07	-0.03	9	35%	-0.10	3	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Derrick Coleman	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.15,-0.24,-0.36,-0.36	-0.36	-0.09	-0.27	0.00	17	53%	-0.06	5	-0.30	11	64%	-0.03
Allen Iverson	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18,-0.2,-0.22,-0.18,-0.18,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19,-0.21,-0.21,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.26,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.32,-0.36,-0.36,-0.42,-0.42,-0.42,-0.46	-0.46	-0.30	-0.20	-0.04	17	21%	-0.29	6	-0.17	4	75%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.4	2.4	27.1	15.7	29.1	1.8	38.0	138.5
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +19.9%

PHI -4.1%

MIA +7.5%

MIA +18.7%

MIA +7.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	PHI	NBA	MIA	PHI	NBA
this game	15.0	16.3	15.6	90.3	86.8	104.4
season	15.8	14.7		103.1	101.4
opponent	14.7	16.3		108.4	98.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	16.8	14.8	14.4	14.2	15.0
PHI	16.7	16.5	15.6	16.5	16.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
P.J. Brown	47	48	0.84	-0.35	1.19	0.37	16	-11	27	15.0	15.0	-0.04	16.4	16.2	0.21
Dan Majerle	76	74	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.37	4	1	3	15.3	13.6	1.66	15.7	18.9	-3.15
Alonzo Mourning	85	84	0.48	0.01	0.47	0.36	4	1	3	15.4	10.4	5.06	16.6	13.0	3.60
Voshon Lenard	31	29	0.44	0.05	0.38	0.18	9	-4	13	14.5	15.3	-0.77	17.6	15.7	1.91
Keith Askins	26	24	0.36	0.13	0.22	0.21	5	0	5	12.2	16.1	-3.95	16.9	16.1	0.81
Tim Hardaway	76	73	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.27	3	2	1	15.1	14.6	0.50	15.9	17.9	-1.96
Gary Grant	17	18	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.08	2	3	-1	14.6	15.1	-0.50	17.9	15.9	1.96
Sasha Danilovic	61	61	-0.28	0.77	-1.05	-0.10	-6	11	-17	15.7	13.7	2.05	16.0	17.0	-1.02
Ike Austin	46	44	-0.36	0.85	-1.21	-0.00	-12	17	-29	14.7	15.3	-0.52	16.0	16.7	-0.71

Philadelphia 76ers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Michael Cage	50	50	0.38	-0.87	1.25	0.03	12	-17	29	16.2	16.5	-0.31	15.1	14.9	0.22
Doug Overton	18	19	0.15	-0.64	0.80	0.03	4	-9	13	17.3	16.1	1.26	15.8	14.8	0.99
Clar. Weatherspoon	68	70	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.17	-3	-2	-1	15.5	18.9	-3.41	15.0	15.1	-0.12
Mark Davis	37	38	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.15	-4	-1	-3	17.7	15.4	2.29	14.7	15.2	-0.53
Rex Walters	11	12	-0.32	-0.17	-0.15	-0.32	0	-5	5	15.9	16.4	-0.47	11.6	15.5	-3.92
Derrick Coleman	77	78	-0.46	-0.03	-0.43	-0.38	-3	-2	-1	16.4	15.7	0.71	15.2	14.1	1.11
Scott Williams	39	40	-0.48	-0.01	-0.47	-0.10	-13	8	-21	17.3	15.6	1.73	15.9	14.3	1.67
Jerry Stackhouse	82	84	-0.56	0.07	-0.63	-0.30	-9	4	-13	16.0	19.3	-3.35	15.0	15.2	-0.25
Allen Iverson	73	74	-0.64	0.15	-0.80	-0.38	-9	4	-13	16.1	17.3	-1.26	14.8	15.8	-0.99

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.52,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.49,0.38,0.38,0.42,0.37,0.4,0.45,0.45,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.58,0.59,0.63,0.62,0.77,0.67,0.64,0.7,0.73,0.77,0.84,0.9,0.81,0.75,0.81,0.85,0.82,0.75,0.77,0.79,0.71,0.67,0.55,0.45,0.32,0.27,0
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 122, OKC 120	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.51,0.48,0.41,0.37,0.4,0.43,0.39,0.33,0.33,0.36,0.35,0.38,0.42,0.45,0.53,0.49,0.55,0.56,0.49,0.51,0.59,0.73,0.8,0.84,0.82,0.82,0.7,0.7,0.74,0.74,0.69,0.77,0.78,0.72,0.78,0.81,0.82,0.86,0.77,0.79,0.76,0.54,0.45,0.37,0.43,0.1,0	92.1%
PHI 95, HOU 93	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.47,0.44,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.46,0.53,0.63,0.64,0.58,0.61,0.67,0.67,0.69,0.69,0.67,0.75,0.9,0.79,0.8,0.86,0.83,0.8,0.83,0.7,0.81,0.82,0.8,0.73,0.69,0.6,0.53,0.61,0.29,0.16,0.09,0	91.6%
LAL 92, SEA 87	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.58,0.56,0.59,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.5,0.46,0.48,0.52,0.64,0.7,0.77,0.8,0.81,0.76,0.8,0.82,0.78,0.78,0.82,0.71,0.77,0.83,0.76,0.54,0.55,0.36,0.11,0.16,0	91.2%