NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	122		Excitement	9.1 [117]		MVP	Carmelo Anthony (DEN): +89.6%
Oklahoma City Thunder	120		Comeback	8.0 [225]		LVP	Chris Wilcox (OKC): -9.5%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Carmelo Anthony	0.90	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.2,0.09,0.09,0.9	0.10	0.79	0.00	20	58%	1.02	2	-0.12	13	69%	0.01
Nene	0.34	0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.34,0.34,0.34	0.23	0.14	0.03	11	90%	0.39	2	-0.05	8	87%	0.03
Chauncey Billups	0.30	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.19,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.22,0.16,0.16,0.08,0.31,0.3	0.12	0.18	-0.01	16	62%	0.33	1	-0.03	7	86%	0.02
Linas Kleiza	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.05	0.05	-0.01	5	80%	0.12	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kenyon Martin	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.1	0.02	0.07	-0.01	11	54%	0.13	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Dahntay Jones	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	-0.01	0.00	5	60%	0.05	1	-0.03	5	100%	0.03
Anthony Carter	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	0.00	1	75%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
J.R. Smith	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	6	50%	0.03	3	-0.08	2	50%	-0.01
Chris Andersen	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Durant	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.2,0.06,0.06,0.88	0.88	0.15	0.71	-0.02	21	65%	1.05	2	-0.16	9	100%	0.09
Damien Wilkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.15,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.24	0.15	0.09	-0.00	7	84%	0.24	0	0.00	5	100%	0.04
Russell Westbrook	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.07	0.13	0.01	7	67%	0.22	1	-0.03	7	57%	0.01
Jeff Green	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.08	-0.03	0.01	13	69%	0.15	2	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
Robert Swift	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.01	-0.01	2	60%	0.04	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Earl Watson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0,0	-0.00	0.05	-0.05	-0.00	9	75%	0.08	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Johan Petro	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Desmond Mason	0,0,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	0.01	7	73%	0.07	4	-0.09	1	100%	0.00
Chris Wilcox	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	8	47%	0.04	3	-0.14	1	0%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	31.0	2.0	29.1	15.7	27.0	1.8	40.0	146.5
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +24.5%

OKC -3.5%

DEN +6.4%

DEN +19.4%

DEN +3.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	OKC	NBA	DEN	OKC	NBA
this game	14.6	15.2	15.5	127.1	123.7	106.4
season	14.4	14.9		109.5	100.5
opponent	15.1	15.7		106.6	105.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	12.9	15.4	13.2	17.4	14.6
OKC	15.4	14.0	16.2	15.4	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kenyon Martin	67	68	0.89	-0.39	1.27	0.48	14	-12	26	14.0	16.0	-1.94	15.3	15.1	0.13
Carmelo Anthony	74	75	0.86	-0.36	1.22	0.45	14	-12	26	14.9	13.7	1.21	15.2	15.2	-0.00
J.R. Smith	38	41	0.63	-0.13	0.77	0.72	-3	5	-8	14.2	14.9	-0.71	16.6	14.2	2.35
Chauncey Billups	76	76	0.59	-0.09	0.69	0.39	7	-5	12	15.2	12.2	2.99	15.1	15.9	-0.80
Nene	80	80	0.59	-0.09	0.69	0.45	5	-3	8	15.3	11.0	4.34	15.0	16.4	-1.44
Dahntay Jones	46	45	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	-0.10	1	1	0	14.3	14.9	-0.55	14.3	16.1	-1.79
Anthony Carter	32	32	-0.16	0.66	-0.81	-0.13	-1	3	-4	14.1	14.9	-0.83	15.2	15.2	0.03
Chris Andersen	32	32	-0.32	0.82	-1.15	-0.03	-10	12	-22	13.8	15.0	-1.25	16.2	14.7	1.48
Linas Kleiza	35	36	-0.52	1.02	-1.53	-0.02	-17	19	-36	14.3	14.8	-0.56	14.8	15.5	-0.63

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Damien Wilkins	43	43	0.43	-0.93	1.37	-0.07	17	-19	36	14.7	15.7	-0.99	14.0	15.1	-1.03
Johan Petro	18	17	0.17	-0.67	0.84	-0.07	8	-10	18	15.3	15.2	0.13	12.4	15.1	-2.75
Chris Wilcox	40	40	0.10	-0.60	0.69	0.24	-5	3	-8	16.0	14.7	1.27	15.4	14.0	1.39
Robert Swift	47	47	0.01	-0.51	0.51	0.12	-4	2	-6	15.3	15.2	0.06	14.9	14.3	0.55
Earl Watson	64	62	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.60	13	-15	28	15.1	15.4	-0.30	15.0	14.0	0.95
Jeff Green	82	81	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.38	-3	1	-4	15.1	16.1	-0.99	14.8	13.4	1.44
Desmond Mason	57	56	-0.78	0.28	-1.06	-0.61	-6	4	-10	14.7	16.0	-1.27	13.3	16.4	-3.10
Kevin Durant	76	76	-0.85	0.35	-1.19	-0.44	-14	12	-26	15.7	13.4	2.36	14.8	13.8	1.03
Russell Westbrook	58	58	-0.88	0.38	-1.27	-0.42	-16	14	-30	15.2	15.2	0.04	15.2	13.7	1.50

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.55,0.51,0.48,0.41,0.37,0.4,0.43,0.39,0.33,0.33,0.36,0.35,0.38,0.42,0.45,0.53,0.49,0.55,0.56,0.49,0.51,0.59,0.73,0.8,0.84,0.82,0.82,0.7,0.7,0.74,0.74,0.69,0.77,0.78,0.72,0.78,0.81,0.82,0.86,0.77,0.79,0.76,0.54,0.45,0.37,0.43,0.1,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 84, PHI 79	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.52,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.49,0.38,0.38,0.42,0.37,0.4,0.45,0.45,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.58,0.59,0.63,0.62,0.77,0.67,0.64,0.7,0.73,0.77,0.84,0.9,0.81,0.75,0.81,0.85,0.82,0.75,0.77,0.79,0.71,0.67,0.55,0.45,0.32,0.27,0	92.1%
CHA 95, ATL 93	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.48,0.39,0.39,0.43,0.39,0.47,0.38,0.4,0.46,0.44,0.36,0.44,0.44,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.64,0.69,0.64,0.67,0.74,0.69,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.68,0.65,0.66,0.77,0.86,0.85,0.96,0.9,0.93,0.95,0.85,0.79,0.54,0.6,0.31,0.21,0.29,0.26,0	90.8%
CHH 88, MIA 81	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.46,0.42,0.4,0.46,0.53,0.56,0.56,0.61,0.67,0.7,0.75,0.76,0.74,0.75,0.76,0.79,0.71,0.65,0.69,0.64,0.7,0.75,0.9,0.85,0.88,0.83,0.92,0.83,0.88,0.78,0.68,0.36,0.35,0.13,0	90.6%