NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Los Angeles Lakers	92		Excitement	7.4 [340]		MVP	Devean George (LAL): +30.2%
Seattle SuperSonics	87		Comeback	7.3 [152]		LVP	Mitch Richmond (LAL): -15.1%

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Devean George	0.30	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.3,0.3	0.03	0.27	-0.01	7	71%	0.34	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Robert Horry	0.25	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.16,0.25,0.25,0.25	0.07	0.18	0.00	3	100%	0.25	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Derek Fisher	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	-0.01	0.09	-0.00	9	44%	0.10	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Lindsey Hunter	0.05	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.08	-0.00	0.02	9	67%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Slava Medvedenko	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	4	75%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Samaki Walker	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	5	60%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jelani McCoy	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kobe Bryant	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.16,-0.16,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.07,-0.03	-0.08	0.04	-0.01	21	44%	0.00	1	-0.03	10	70%	-0.00
Rick Fox	-0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	14	46%	-0.00	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Mark Madsen	-0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	7	29%	-0.04	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Mitch Richmond	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.07	-0.08	0.00	6	23%	-0.12	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01

Seattle SuperSonics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brent Barry	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.09,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.07,0.13,0.12	0.12	0.08	0.04	-0.00	12	72%	0.24	2	-0.12	5	100%	0.07
Predrag Drobnjak	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.02	-0.00	5	50%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Jerome James	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.00	4	75%	0.05	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Vladimir Radmanovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,0,-0.01	-0.01	-0.05	0.02	-0.02	12	35%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Desmond Mason	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.07	0.02	-0.03	10	46%	0.05	2	-0.07	6	67%	-0.03
Earl Watson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vin Baker	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.08	-0.00	-0.02	5	42%	-0.01	3	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Rashard Lewis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0,0,0,-0.08	-0.08	0.02	-0.09	0.00	10	55%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Gary Payton	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.09,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.09	-0.03	0.02	19	42%	-0.07	3	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	40.5	2.0	29.0	14.8	22.0	1.7	31.2	141.2
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAL +53.0%

SEA -17.8%

SEA -8.8%

LAL +20.4%

LAL +3.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	LAL	SEA	NBA	LAL	SEA	NBA
this game	16.3	16.7	15.6	105.7	98.9	102.3
season	15.3	16.0		106.9	106.3
opponent	15.8	15.4		103.9	99.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
LAL	16.3	15.9	17.8	15.0	16.3
SEA	15.7	16.8	15.0	19.3	16.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Robert Horry	38	37	0.86	-0.36	1.23	0.34	18	-13	31	14.7	17.5	-2.83	18.8	15.1	3.67
Derek Fisher	51	52	0.81	-0.31	1.12	0.43	13	-8	21	15.1	17.8	-2.70	17.2	15.9	1.35
Devean George	40	40	0.73	-0.23	0.96	0.44	10	-5	15	15.5	16.9	-1.44	17.2	16.2	0.99
Kobe Bryant	77	77	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.34	9	-4	13	15.9	18.6	-2.65	16.8	15.6	1.17
Rick Fox	66	68	0.34	0.16	0.17	0.25	3	2	1	16.2	16.3	-0.11	16.6	16.8	-0.25
Mitch Richmond	15	15	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.12	2	3	-1	17.1	16.1	1.06	17.8	16.4	1.38
Jelani McCoy	11	11	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	0.02	-2	7	-9	15.8	16.3	-0.50	16.6	16.7	-0.03
Slava Medvedenko	17	19	-0.11	0.61	-0.73	-0.05	-2	7	-9	16.4	16.2	0.20	14.9	17.1	-2.18
Samaki Walker	42	41	-0.26	0.76	-1.01	-0.02	-8	13	-21	17.8	14.8	2.92	15.9	17.3	-1.37
Mark Madsen	42	42	-0.29	0.79	-1.08	0.00	-10	15	-25	17.3	15.3	1.95	15.9	17.3	-1.40
Lindsey Hunter	36	38	-0.32	0.82	-1.14	-0.08	-8	13	-21	17.8	15.1	2.70	15.1	17.9	-2.78

Seattle SuperSonics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jerome James	34	34	0.26	-0.76	1.03	0.06	7	-12	19	15.4	17.4	-1.98	17.5	15.5	2.05
Predrag Drobnjak	34	31	-0.04	-0.46	0.43	0.02	-2	-3	1	17.0	16.5	0.51	16.0	16.4	-0.34
Earl Watson	32	29	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	0.01	-2	-3	1	16.5	16.8	-0.30	15.2	16.8	-1.57
Vin Baker	32	33	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	0.01	-2	-3	1	17.1	16.4	0.63	16.2	16.3	-0.07
Vladimir Radmanovic	60	59	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	-0.36	-1	-4	3	16.4	17.1	-0.71	16.6	15.4	1.22
Rashard Lewis	57	58	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	-0.37	-2	-3	1	16.6	16.8	-0.18	16.1	16.5	-0.34
Gary Payton	65	66	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.33	-4	-1	-3	16.3	17.7	-1.40	16.4	15.7	0.77
Brent Barry	73	73	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.40	-4	-1	-3	17.1	14.5	2.64	16.3	15.9	0.47
Desmond Mason	53	52	-0.84	0.34	-1.18	-0.40	-15	10	-25	17.3	15.7	1.52	15.5	17.3	-1.82

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.58,0.56,0.59,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.5,0.46,0.48,0.52,0.64,0.7,0.77,0.8,0.81,0.76,0.8,0.82,0.78,0.78,0.82,0.71,0.77,0.83,0.76,0.54,0.55,0.36,0.11,0.16,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 84, POR 74	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.54,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.43,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.62,0.53,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.6,0.49,0.41,0.49,0.49,0.56,0.5,0.54,0.49,0.58,0.61,0.71,0.74,0.74,0.78,0.79,0.86,0.78,0.87,0.92,0.96,0.9,0.94,0.89,0.85,0.83,0.61,0.28,0.15,0.01,0	91.9%
DAL 91, VAN 88	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.59,0.55,0.53,0.45,0.49,0.55,0.54,0.53,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.59,0.64,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.58,0.54,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.58,0.72,0.75,0.76,0.7,0.72,0.74,0.78,0.75,0.86,0.77,0.79,0.59,0.61,0.45,0.45,0.22,0.08,0	91.7%
UTA 107, SAC 104	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.44,0.39,0.47,0.47,0.52,0.53,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.53,0.58,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.61,0.66,0.61,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.6,0.55,0.51,0.58,0.64,0.74,0.65,0.69,0.77,0.77,0.85,0.8,0.7,0.79,0.76,0.53,0.74,0.71,0.67,0.55,0.45,0.43,0.26,0	91.6%