NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	91		Excitement	7.6 [284]		MVP	Kevin Edwards (VAN): +14.2%
Vancouver Grizzlies	88		Comeback	8.8 [140]		LVP	Mike Bibby (VAN): -32.2%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dirk Nowitzki	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.08	0.04	0.05	0.01	13	65%	0.13	2	-0.05	5	80%	0.03
Hubert Davis	0.01	0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.07	-0.04	0.02	14	67%	0.07	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Eduardo Najera	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.00	2	60%	0.01	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.01
Courtney Alexander	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Howard Eisley	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	0.01	-0.02	6	42%	0.05	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Christian Laettner	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	7	44%	-0.03	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Michael Finley	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.14,-0.14,-0.13,-0.13,-0.19,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.14,-0.14,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05	-0.09	0.01	-0.02	14	50%	0.12	5	-0.18	4	100%	0.03
Shawn Bradley	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.01	0.01	5	40%	0.01	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Steve Nash	-0.16	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16	-0.09	-0.08	-0.01	12	43%	-0.05	3	-0.11	4	50%	-0.04

Vancouver Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Edwards	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.05	0.09	0.00	7	81%	0.19	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Michael Dickerson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	12	62%	0.08	1	-0.04	5	60%	-0.02
Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Damon Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.08,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.02	0.02	0.00	-0.01	-0.03	8	50%	0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Grant Long	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.01	7	71%	0.07	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Tony Massenburg	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Stromile Swift	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bryant Reeves	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	-0.01	3	37%	-0.03	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Ike Austin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.08	-0.03	-0.00	8	25%	-0.09	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Othella Harrington	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.2,-0.19,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.19,-0.17	-0.17	-0.07	-0.07	0.02	20	48%	-0.06	3	-0.11	8	87%	0.03
Mike Bibby	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.23,-0.32,-0.32	-0.32	-0.12	-0.21	-0.01	11	30%	-0.20	3	-0.13	1	0%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.6	2.7	27.2	15.4	24.3	2.4	26.6	122.2
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +24.1%

DAL +14.9%

DAL +20.9%

VAN -5.0%

VAN -4.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	VAN	NBA	DAL	VAN	NBA
this game	14.5	17.0	15.5	97.8	97.8	100.9
season	15.2	15.6		104.6	97.4
opponent	15.1	15.3		103.4	101.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	14.2	14.2	13.0	17.3	14.5
VAN	16.5	16.4	16.5	18.7	17.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shawn Bradley	45	43	0.89	-0.39	1.28	0.57	11	-8	19	15.1	14.0	1.11	18.8	15.3	3.47
Dirk Nowitzki	81	78	0.67	-0.17	0.85	0.41	9	-6	15	14.1	17.5	-3.40	17.1	16.5	0.55
Steve Nash	82	81	0.65	-0.15	0.81	0.36	10	-7	17	14.2	17.3	-3.10	17.4	12.8	4.67
Michael Finley	69	67	0.50	-0.00	0.51	0.47	1	2	-1	15.4	12.1	3.25	17.3	16.0	1.31
Hubert Davis	76	73	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.39	0	3	-3	15.1	11.8	3.32	16.4	19.6	-3.22
Courtney Alexander	7	6	0.01	0.49	-0.49	0.04	-1	4	-5	13.0	14.7	-1.66	20.3	16.7	3.60
Howard Eisley	34	33	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	0.01	-4	7	-11	14.4	14.6	-0.15	17.6	16.6	0.94
Eduardo Najera	31	31	-0.24	0.74	-0.99	-0.10	-5	8	-13	13.8	14.9	-1.15	14.9	18.1	-3.21
Christian Laettner	40	38	-0.26	0.76	-1.03	-0.09	-6	9	-15	13.9	15.0	-1.16	15.0	18.4	-3.38

Vancouver Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf	10	12	0.18	-0.68	0.85	-0.03	7	-10	17	11.5	17.7	-6.16	17.5	14.1	3.40
Stromile Swift	5	6	0.10	-0.60	0.70	-0.02	4	-7	11	12.2	17.3	-5.06	20.8	14.1	6.73
Bryant Reeves	28	29	0.09	-0.59	0.68	0.00	3	-6	9	18.4	16.3	2.11	14.6	14.5	0.02
Michael Dickerson	52	53	0.06	-0.56	0.62	0.03	1	-4	5	17.9	15.7	2.24	13.7	15.6	-1.91
Tony Massenburg	5	5	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	0.02	-1	-2	1	11.2	17.3	-6.12	8.4	14.9	-6.49
Ike Austin	51	53	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.25	4	-7	11	15.2	19.3	-4.11	14.9	14.0	0.94
Grant Long	62	63	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	-0.04	-5	2	-7	18.1	14.4	3.70	13.6	16.5	-2.95
Damon Jones	48	49	-0.57	0.07	-0.63	-0.48	-3	0	-3	16.5	17.6	-1.11	15.3	13.7	1.67
Kevin Edwards	41	43	-0.63	0.13	-0.76	-0.45	-6	3	-9	16.1	17.7	-1.66	15.3	13.9	1.38
Othella Harrington	69	72	-0.69	0.19	-0.89	-0.52	-6	3	-9	17.7	14.7	3.01	14.6	14.3	0.26
Mike Bibby	79	80	-0.72	0.22	-0.93	-0.33	-13	10	-23	17.6	12.4	5.26	14.1	17.3	-3.22

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.59,0.55,0.53,0.45,0.49,0.55,0.54,0.53,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.59,0.64,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.58,0.54,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.58,0.72,0.75,0.76,0.7,0.72,0.74,0.78,0.75,0.86,0.77,0.79,0.59,0.61,0.45,0.45,0.22,0.08,0
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 94, ATL 87	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.4,0.44,0.42,0.43,0.37,0.43,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.48,0.44,0.49,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.53,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.54,0.59,0.58,0.54,0.48,0.42,0.52,0.48,0.55,0.65,0.79,0.74,0.77,0.85,0.87,0.92,0.88,0.86,0.81,0.79,0.71,0.61,0.62,0.46,0.32,0.09,0	92.0%
IND 106, ORL 99	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.54,0.58,0.61,0.55,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.57,0.58,0.55,0.6,0.53,0.54,0.56,0.52,0.51,0.44,0.42,0.41,0.49,0.42,0.43,0.42,0.45,0.58,0.62,0.71,0.65,0.66,0.52,0.64,0.78,0.86,0.82,0.79,0.91,0.79,0.59,0.46,0.25,0.45,0.33,0.08,0	91.8%
LAL 92, SEA 87	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.58,0.56,0.59,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.5,0.46,0.48,0.52,0.64,0.7,0.77,0.8,0.81,0.76,0.8,0.82,0.78,0.78,0.82,0.71,0.77,0.83,0.76,0.54,0.55,0.36,0.11,0.16,0	91.7%