NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Charlotte Hornets	122		Excitement	9.7 [106]		MVP	Terry Rozier (CHA): +70.3%
Atlanta Hawks	118		Comeback	14.1 [39]		LVP	Trae Young (ATL): -31.5%

Charlotte Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Terry Rozier	0.70	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.22,0.15,0.06,0.7	0.14	0.60	0.04	25	62%	0.83	3	-0.12	5	100%	0.11
P.J. Washington	0.60	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.37,0.6,0.6	0.19	0.42	0.01	14	74%	0.60	0	0.00	3	100%	0.03
Mason Plumlee	0.33	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.28,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33	0.19	0.16	0.01	14	78%	0.33	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Mark Williams	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.05	-0.01	0.00	5	62%	0.04	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Bryce McGowens	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	-0.00	6	58%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jalen McDaniels	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.00	0.01	8	44%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gordon Hayward	-0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0.09,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	0.01	9	47%	0.01	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
JT Thor	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.08	-0.02	-0.00	1	25%	-0.02	3	-0.08	2	50%	-0.02
Dennis Smith Jr.	-0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.19	-0.08	-0.11	-0.01	7	44%	-0.07	4	-0.12	4	100%	0.03

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Clint Capela	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.18,0.62	0.62	0.10	0.54	0.01	5	100%	0.65	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.05
AJ Griffin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.28,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.35	0.35	0.13	0.22	-0.00	7	93%	0.35	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dejounte Murray	0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.26,0.26,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.22	0.09	0.15	0.02	20	65%	0.30	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
De'Andre Hunter	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.21,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.14	-0.04	0.02	16	71%	0.12	2	-0.03	3	100%	0.01
Aaron Holiday	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.02	0.05	0.00	2	75%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Onyeka Okongwu	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	1	75%	0.04	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Jalen Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.05	0.00	-0.03	3	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
John Collins	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.09	-0.09	-0.01	-0.09	-0.01	7	61%	-0.03	3	-0.06	4	100%	0.02
Trae Young	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.05,0,0,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.01,-0.03,-0.13,-0.32	-0.32	-0.08	-0.26	-0.03	22	47%	-0.14	6	-0.18	9	78%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.6	2.4	25.2	15.5	28.7	1.8	37.8	135.0
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.2	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL -19.5%

CHA +59.6%

ATL -0.7%

CHA +14.1%

ATL -3.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHA	ATL	NBA	CHA	ATL	NBA
this game	13.6	14.1	14.4	117.3	113.5	113.4
season	14.0	13.8		107.8	115.1
opponent	14.4	14.3		114.9	114.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHA	14.6	14.4	13.3	12.3	13.6
ATL	12.5	15.0	14.3	14.4	14.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Charlotte Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jalen McDaniels	54	54	0.83	-0.33	1.16	0.42	14	-10	24	13.6	13.7	-0.05	13.5	14.7	-1.16
Mason Plumlee	65	64	0.78	-0.28	1.06	0.49	10	-6	16	14.0	12.9	1.10	13.1	15.6	-2.47
P.J. Washington	81	82	0.75	-0.25	0.99	0.42	11	-7	18	13.8	13.1	0.70	14.0	14.2	-0.22
Gordon Hayward	54	55	0.67	-0.17	0.84	0.35	11	-7	18	14.6	12.6	1.92	13.5	14.7	-1.28
Terry Rozier	85	84	0.47	0.03	0.43	0.44	1	3	-2	13.8	12.7	1.16	13.3	17.2	-3.89
Dennis Smith Jr.	59	56	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.03	-2	6	-8	12.9	14.6	-1.66	15.2	12.7	2.54
Mark Williams	39	40	-0.28	0.78	-1.06	-0.10	-6	10	-16	12.9	14.0	-1.10	15.6	13.1	2.47
JT Thor	28	29	-0.29	0.79	-1.07	-0.02	-9	13	-22	13.3	13.7	-0.43	15.0	13.7	1.35
Bryce McGowens	55	56	-0.40	0.90	-1.30	-0.10	-10	14	-24	13.1	14.2	-1.08	14.7	13.3	1.38

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Trae Young	81	83	0.29	-0.79	1.08	0.11	6	-10	16	13.5	16.1	-2.61	13.9	12.4	1.51
AJ Griffin	52	50	0.19	-0.69	0.89	0.19	0	-4	4	15.0	13.1	1.88	12.7	14.5	-1.76
Aaron Holiday	32	33	0.00	-0.50	0.51	0.03	-1	-3	2	15.2	13.6	1.59	12.3	14.3	-1.95
Clint Capela	50	50	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.36	8	-12	20	13.1	14.9	-1.81	15.0	12.3	2.71
Onyeka Okongwu	54	53	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	0.05	-12	8	-20	14.9	13.1	1.81	12.6	14.7	-2.18
Jalen Johnson	18	17	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.52	3	-7	10	15.1	13.8	1.21	13.5	13.7	-0.13
De'Andre Hunter	81	80	-0.61	0.11	-0.71	-0.40	-7	3	-10	13.7	15.3	-1.66	13.9	12.6	1.37
Dejounte Murray	82	81	-0.72	0.22	-0.94	-0.43	-10	6	-16	14.0	14.3	-0.33	13.8	13.0	0.81
John Collins	70	73	-0.81	0.31	-1.11	-0.60	-7	3	-10	13.8	14.6	-0.88	13.8	13.2	0.58

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.59,0.63,0.57,0.57,0.66,0.7,0.65,0.66,0.62,0.68,0.67,0.59,0.65,0.68,0.71,0.72,0.77,0.8,0.9,0.92,0.87,0.85,0.81,0.79,0.74,0.75,0.69,0.6,0.67,0.68,0.81,0.85,0.82,0.72,0.72,0.83,0.59,0.73,0.74,0.71,0.57,0.42,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 117, ORL 111	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.56,0.55,0.59,0.57,0.67,0.69,0.7,0.72,0.74,0.76,0.8,0.74,0.67,0.64,0.7,0.71,0.79,0.79,0.88,0.9,0.93,0.91,0.89,0.81,0.79,0.79,0.74,0.81,0.77,0.67,0.68,0.74,0.77,0.75,0.62,0.68,0.69,0.8,0.73,0.75,0.63,0.33,0.27,0	92.0%
DAL 99, MIL 93	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.62,0.57,0.59,0.55,0.53,0.62,0.66,0.64,0.69,0.75,0.73,0.72,0.72,0.77,0.76,0.84,0.85,0.86,0.84,0.88,0.82,0.82,0.9,0.88,0.89,0.85,0.81,0.83,0.78,0.79,0.9,0.91,0.88,0.71,0.85,0.83,0.76,0.73,0.69,0.64,0.55,0.42,0	92.0%
IND 95, NOP 90	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.57,0.66,0.63,0.65,0.71,0.71,0.7,0.66,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.69,0.8,0.81,0.82,0.8,0.77,0.84,0.86,0.86,0.8,0.72,0.67,0.73,0.77,0.8,0.69,0.72,0.67,0.79,0.78,0.74,0.79,0.8,0.81,0.79,0.65,0.53,0.55,0.63,0.77,0.42,0	91.9%