NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	117		Excitement	7.6 [363]		MVP	Tyler Johnson (MIA): +43.9%
Orlando Magic	111		Comeback	14.5 [121]		LVP	Elfrid Payton (ORL): -35.3%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tyler Johnson	0.44	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.18,0.21,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.27,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.44	0.23	0.21	-0.00	18	76%	0.45	1	-0.01	5	80%	0.00
Goran Dragic	0.43	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.11,0.21,0.3,0.43	0.06	0.37	-0.00	22	56%	0.47	2	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Kelly Olynyk	0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.08	-0.00	-0.02	7	71%	0.12	2	-0.03	10	90%	0.03
Bam Adebayo	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.01	0.06	-0.02	5	60%	0.08	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jordan Mickey	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.02	-0.00	5	60%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Wayne Ellington	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.06	-0.01	0.01	9	67%	0.09	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Derrick Walton Jr.	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh Richardson	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.00	11	50%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Hassan Whiteside	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	11	37%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Aaron Gordon	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.2,0.25,0.23,0.3,0.32,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.43,0.43,0.39,0.35,0.35,0.5,0.41	0.41	0.32	0.12	0.02	22	76%	0.41	0	0.00	7	86%	0.07
Mario Hezonja	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.03	0.05	-0.00	5	60%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jonathon Simmons	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.01	0.05	-0.02	10	55%	0.14	2	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01
Bismack Biyombo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.01	0.00	6	83%	0.12	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Evan Fournier	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.13,0.03,-0.09,-0.09,0.07	0.07	0.09	-0.02	-0.01	17	64%	0.21	2	-0.14	2	100%	0.02
Arron Afflalo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.02	-0.00	1	100%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Wes Iwundu	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
D.J. Augustin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	-0.01	-0.00	4	62%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marreese Speights	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	5	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Elfrid Payton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.35,-0.35	-0.35	-0.16	-0.19	-0.00	10	36%	-0.10	6	-0.25	2	0%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.3	2.4	25.6	15.4	26.4	2.4	31.8	127.2
league avg	25.1	2.3	28.6	15.0	27.2	2.3	32.6	134.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +38.2%

ORL -6.9%

ORL -4.0%

MIA +30.4%

ORL -7.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	ORL	NBA	MIA	ORL	NBA
this game	16.4	15.1	14.7	128.6	120.7	107.5
season	15.1	14.6		105.4	104.2
opponent	14.5	14.6		109.1	105.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	20.2	15.9	14.1	15.5	16.4
ORL	11.1	16.1	14.7	18.8	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Hassan Whiteside	53	56	0.59	-0.09	0.67	0.44	5	1	4	16.5	16.2	0.30	14.9	15.4	-0.48
Wayne Ellington	59	60	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.39	6	0	6	16.0	17.1	-1.05	15.6	14.2	1.35
Tyler Johnson	74	75	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.36	7	-1	8	16.0	17.9	-1.84	14.9	15.8	-0.82
Goran Dragic	70	71	0.53	-0.03	0.57	0.27	9	-3	12	16.5	16.1	0.31	16.2	11.4	4.75
Josh Richardson	77	77	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.35	5	1	4	16.8	14.3	2.48	14.8	16.5	-1.64
Derrick Walton Jr.	7	7	0.01	0.49	-0.49	0.01	0	6	-6	14.1	16.6	-2.43	12.4	15.3	-2.89
Jordan Mickey	23	23	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	-0.11	3	3	0	17.2	16.1	1.11	17.5	14.3	3.17
Kelly Olynyk	62	61	-0.03	0.53	-0.55	-0.09	2	4	-2	15.9	17.4	-1.46	14.1	17.1	-3.06
Bam Adebayo	30	30	-0.22	0.72	-0.93	-0.01	-7	13	-20	17.4	15.9	1.56	13.9	15.7	-1.78

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
D.J. Augustin	25	24	0.04	-0.54	0.58	0.10	-2	-4	2	16.4	14.6	1.84	15.1	16.8	-1.71
Mario Hezonja	22	23	-0.04	-0.46	0.43	0.05	-3	-3	0	17.5	14.4	3.10	15.1	16.8	-1.68
Wes Iwundu	9	9	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	0.08	-5	-1	-4	19.7	14.6	5.06	13.8	16.7	-2.89
Arron Afflalo	26	27	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	0.08	-5	-1	-4	16.7	14.5	2.17	15.4	16.8	-1.39
Marreese Speights	28	29	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	0.11	-8	2	-10	16.8	14.4	2.43	15.0	17.0	-2.03
Bismack Biyombo	64	62	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.43	2	-8	10	14.4	16.8	-2.43	17.0	15.0	2.03
Evan Fournier	72	70	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.43	1	-7	8	14.3	18.1	-3.84	16.7	15.2	1.49
Jonathon Simmons	68	67	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.41	0	-6	6	14.5	16.7	-2.12	16.7	15.4	1.31
Aaron Gordon	70	68	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.38	-3	-3	0	14.4	17.5	-3.10	16.8	15.1	1.68
Elfrid Payton	76	76	-0.60	0.10	-0.70	-0.40	-7	1	-8	14.9	16.2	-1.32	16.8	14.2	2.62

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.56,0.55,0.59,0.57,0.67,0.69,0.7,0.72,0.74,0.76,0.8,0.74,0.67,0.64,0.7,0.71,0.79,0.79,0.88,0.9,0.93,0.91,0.89,0.81,0.79,0.79,0.74,0.81,0.77,0.67,0.68,0.74,0.77,0.75,0.62,0.68,0.69,0.8,0.73,0.75,0.63,0.33,0.27,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 99, BOS 96	0.5,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.5,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.57,0.55,0.6,0.64,0.65,0.64,0.64,0.69,0.67,0.71,0.7,0.61,0.61,0.72,0.73,0.7,0.67,0.78,0.84,0.85,0.83,0.84,0.84,0.8,0.69,0.73,0.67,0.64,0.66,0.7,0.71,0.67,0.72,0.59,0.59,0.6,0.69,0.63,0.22,0.15,0	91.3%
DAL 99, MIL 93	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.62,0.57,0.59,0.55,0.53,0.62,0.66,0.64,0.69,0.75,0.73,0.72,0.72,0.77,0.76,0.84,0.85,0.86,0.84,0.88,0.82,0.82,0.9,0.88,0.89,0.85,0.81,0.83,0.78,0.79,0.9,0.91,0.88,0.71,0.85,0.83,0.76,0.73,0.69,0.64,0.55,0.42,0	91.1%
MIN 82, HOU 79	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.61,0.65,0.7,0.66,0.67,0.72,0.77,0.75,0.73,0.74,0.79,0.87,0.87,0.86,0.84,0.78,0.76,0.82,0.89,0.89,0.9,0.89,0.83,0.86,0.88,0.88,0.9,0.81,0.87,0.79,0.8,0.77,0.79,0.81,0.67,0.75,0.64,0.55,0.27,0	91.0%