NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	118		Excitement	10.5 [56]		MVP	Zion Williamson (NOP): +84.0%
New Orleans Pelicans	119		Comeback	8.8 [286]		LVP	Anthony Edwards (MIN): -12.6%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jaden McDaniels	0.40	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.28,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.4,0.4	0.14	0.26	0.01	12	70%	0.40	0	0.00	3	67%	0.03
Jaylen Nowell	0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.22,0.22	0.07	0.15	-0.00	11	58%	0.22	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
D'Angelo Russell	0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.21,0.21,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.24,0.31,0.31,0.11	0.08	0.02	-0.01	17	63%	0.37	3	-0.26	9	100%	0.10
Naz Reid	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.07	0.02	-0.01	8	72%	0.11	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Rudy Gobert	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.02	0.01	5	83%	0.15	2	-0.11	2	100%	0.01
Austin Rivers	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.00	0.01	-0.02	6	38%	0.03	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
Nathan Knight	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	0	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Bryn Forbes	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0.00	1	50%	0.02	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
Anthony Edwards	-0.13	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.05,0.05,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13	-0.03	-0.09	0.01	23	49%	0.00	4	-0.13	9	56%	-0.05

New Orleans Pelicans
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Zion Williamson	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.07,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.09,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.18,0.4,0.84	0.84	0.22	0.63	0.01	21	70%	0.97	4	-0.13	19	74%	-0.06
Trey Murphy III	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27	0.27	0.19	0.08	0.01	8	100%	0.27	0	0.00	5	80%	0.04
CJ McCollum	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.06,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.2,0.1,0.1,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.02	-0.02	-0.08	16	54%	0.11	4	-0.06	5	60%	-0.03
Larry Nance Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.01	0.04	0.00	1	0%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jaxson Hayes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.03	0.00	2	75%	0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jonas Valanciunas	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	0.00	12	43%	-0.01	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.03
Jose Alvarado	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	6	33%	-0.03	1	-0.02	3	33%	-0.07
Naji Marshall	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,-0.05	-0.05	0.03	-0.09	0.00	9	52%	-0.05	0	0.00	5	80%	0.02
Dyson Daniels	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	0.00	3	37%	-0.01	2	-0.06	2	0%	-0.06
Devonte' Graham	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.05	-0.07	-0.01	3	0%	-0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.5	2.4	25.2	14.8	45.2	2.4	36.3	154.7
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.2	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIN -6.4%

MIN -0.5%

NOP +27.5%

NOP +15.1%

NOP +14.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	NOP	NBA	MIN	NOP	NBA
this game	14.5	14.2	14.4	118.0	117.8	113.4
season	14.1	14.2		112.4	113.4
opponent	14.6	14.3		111.6	112.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	15.0	14.5	14.0	14.5	14.5
NOP	15.0	14.3	11.8	16.2	14.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bryn Forbes	30	30	0.05	-0.55	0.61	-0.03	3	-4	7	13.6	14.8	-1.20	12.7	14.8	-2.12
Nathan Knight	7	7	0.02	-0.52	0.53	-0.01	1	-2	3	14.7	14.5	0.26	14.3	14.2	0.10
Naz Reid	56	55	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.26	6	-7	13	13.3	15.9	-2.57	13.1	15.5	-2.33
Austin Rivers	68	71	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	0.04	-9	8	-17	15.0	13.3	1.75	13.7	15.3	-1.53
D'Angelo Russell	79	78	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.50	5	-6	11	14.8	13.2	1.62	14.5	13.3	1.20
Rudy Gobert	58	58	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.20	-6	5	-11	15.2	13.5	1.71	15.3	12.7	2.64
Jaden McDaniels	70	71	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	-0.46	1	-2	3	14.8	13.6	1.20	14.5	13.4	1.12
Anthony Edwards	81	82	-0.52	0.02	-0.55	-0.41	-4	3	-7	14.2	15.7	-1.50	14.4	13.4	1.01
Jaylen Nowell	51	53	-0.59	0.09	-0.69	-0.53	-2	1	-3	14.0	14.9	-0.88	14.4	14.0	0.36

New Orleans Pelicans
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Naji Marshall	72	72	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.53	3	-2	5	14.8	12.6	2.25	14.4	14.6	-0.24
Zion Williamson	73	73	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.48	4	-3	7	13.3	16.5	-3.15	14.1	15.4	-1.23
Trey Murphy III	60	58	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.26	10	-9	19	13.1	15.8	-2.72	14.6	14.4	0.19
CJ McCollum	75	76	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.40	3	-2	5	14.5	13.2	1.39	14.8	13.3	1.55
Jonas Valanciunas	59	59	0.27	0.23	0.05	0.24	1	0	1	15.6	12.2	3.42	14.6	14.2	0.38
Devonte' Graham	34	33	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.06	2	-1	3	13.6	14.5	-0.82	15.1	14.2	0.88
Jaxson Hayes	37	35	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.12	0	1	-1	14.4	14.1	0.30	14.3	14.6	-0.33
Dyson Daniels	39	39	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.26	-5	6	-11	12.9	15.0	-2.14	14.8	14.3	0.53
Larry Nance Jr.	32	32	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.06	-3	4	-7	13.7	14.4	-0.64	14.8	14.3	0.55
Jose Alvarado	24	23	-0.36	0.86	-1.21	-0.06	-10	11	-21	16.2	13.5	2.70	12.3	15.1	-2.81

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.43,0.48,0.48,0.53,0.55,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.44,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.44,0.37,0.44,0.31,0.25,0.3,0.39,0.33,0.35,0.37,0.39,0.23,0.21,0.35,0.25,0.21,0.34,0.22,0.28,0.42,0.62,0.43,0.52,0.58,0.47,0.29,0.38,0.25,0.1,0.32,0.27,1
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 95, NJN 98	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.53,0.61,0.62,0.66,0.6,0.55,0.49,0.44,0.4,0.42,0.47,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.34,0.34,0.42,0.39,0.41,0.49,0.42,0.37,0.42,0.33,0.39,0.38,0.38,0.35,0.34,0.33,0.44,0.46,0.43,0.48,0.42,0.27,0.36,0.19,0.33,0.19,0.16,0.43,0.42,1	90.2%
NYK 98, OKC 101	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.4,0.46,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.42,0.42,0.4,0.32,0.36,0.36,0.39,0.39,0.41,0.3,0.32,0.25,0.25,0.24,0.27,0.33,0.38,0.31,0.24,0.23,0.18,0.42,0.4,0.33,0.28,0.27,0.31,0.15,0.22,0.14,0.1,0.32,0.26,1	90.2%
NYK 85, BOS 87	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.53,0.52,0.5,0.46,0.47,0.55,0.55,0.62,0.58,0.6,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.42,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.33,0.3,0.18,0.21,0.18,0.17,0.19,0.29,0.26,0.26,0.33,0.41,0.37,0.32,0.3,0.38,0.43,0.58,0.58,0.47,0.41,0.4,0.32,0.28,0.22,0.42,1	90.0%