NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	111		Excitement	7.5 [425]		MVP	Trey Murphy III (NOP): +35.8%
New Orleans Pelicans	113		Comeback	4.5 [217]		LVP	Reggie Bullock (DAL): -17.6%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Christian Wood	0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.07,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.15	0.06	0.02	10	88%	0.28	3	-0.09	6	67%	-0.01
Spencer Dinwiddie	0.17	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.29,0.24,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.13	0.04	-0.00	15	69%	0.24	2	-0.07	5	80%	0.00
Luka Doncic	0.04	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0,-0.01,0,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.04	0.09	-0.06	-0.02	30	57%	0.12	3	-0.08	5	60%	-0.03
Facundo Campazzo	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.01	0.05	0.00	4	37%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Maxi Kleber	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.03	0.01	3	70%	0.12	2	-0.09	4	100%	0.04
Josh Green	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
JaVale McGee	-0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.03	-0.02	0.01	5	57%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.03
Dorian Finney-Smith	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08	-0.03	-0.05	0.01	5	40%	-0.04	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Bullock	-0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.18,-0.18	-0.07	-0.11	-0.01	8	19%	-0.18	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

New Orleans Pelicans
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Trey Murphy III	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.36	0.36	0.22	0.15	0.01	8	122%	0.42	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.02
Devonte' Graham	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.2,0.22	0.22	0.07	0.14	-0.01	10	58%	0.22	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.03
Larry Nance Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.08	0.06	0.01	6	92%	0.18	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Dyson Daniels	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.08	-0.00	0.00	5	92%	0.11	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Naji Marshall	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.05	0.00	0.01	9	68%	0.12	3	-0.07	4	75%	-0.00
Jose Alvarado	0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.06	-0.01	0.02	8	81%	0.11	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Jonas Valanciunas	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.05	-0.02	0.01	9	62%	0.06	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.02
CJ McCollum	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05	-0.05	-0.14	0.01	-0.08	20	34%	0.07	3	-0.12	1	100%	0.01
Jaxson Hayes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.06	-0.04	0.00	1	0%	-0.06	1	-0.03	2	0%	-0.06

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.1	3.0	27.2	15.4	30.4	2.8	34.0	138.0
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.2	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NOP +63.6%

NOP +1.7%

DAL -14.2%

DAL -7.5%

NOP +6.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	NOP	NBA	DAL	NOP	NBA
this game	16.2	14.6	14.4	119.4	120.2	113.4
season	15.2	14.2		115.5	113.4
opponent	14.6	14.3		111.6	115.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	15.8	15.1	14.9	19.8	16.2
NOP	13.0	15.5	13.3	17.1	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Josh Green	27	27	0.14	-0.64	0.78	0.02	4	-6	10	16.3	16.2	0.02	14.0	14.8	-0.79
JaVale McGee	27	26	0.11	-0.61	0.71	0.11	0	-2	2	14.9	16.8	-1.86	13.7	14.9	-1.20
Facundo Campazzo	24	24	0.02	-0.52	0.55	0.02	0	-2	2	17.6	15.8	1.86	14.7	14.5	0.25
Christian Wood	56	56	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.35	8	-10	18	16.4	16.1	0.32	15.3	13.5	1.74
Luka Doncic	72	74	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.36	6	-8	14	15.7	18.0	-2.33	14.0	16.5	-2.52
Dorian Finney-Smith	68	70	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	-0.38	-4	2	-6	15.8	17.4	-1.63	14.4	15.0	-0.64
Reggie Bullock	69	70	-0.52	0.02	-0.55	-0.47	-2	0	-2	15.8	17.6	-1.86	14.5	14.7	-0.25
Maxi Kleber	51	52	-0.65	0.15	-0.79	-0.44	-7	5	-12	16.6	15.8	0.84	14.9	14.1	0.76
Spencer Dinwiddie	71	71	-0.81	0.31	-1.12	-0.37	-15	13	-28	17.3	12.8	4.55	15.0	13.2	1.84

New Orleans Pelicans
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Naji Marshall	63	63	0.92	-0.42	1.35	0.51	14	-12	26	14.8	14.0	0.79	17.0	14.6	2.48
CJ McCollum	69	69	0.84	-0.34	1.18	0.55	10	-8	18	14.3	15.2	-0.87	16.4	15.7	0.73
Trey Murphy III	73	72	0.53	-0.03	0.57	0.50	1	1	0	14.2	15.8	-1.54	16.1	16.9	-0.85
Larry Nance Jr.	45	43	0.43	0.07	0.35	0.49	-2	4	-6	14.7	14.4	0.33	16.8	15.8	0.97
Devonte' Graham	50	50	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.44	-1	3	-4	15.3	13.7	1.66	16.8	15.6	1.20
Jose Alvarado	51	49	0.25	0.25	-0.01	-0.11	12	-10	22	14.3	14.8	-0.50	17.0	15.4	1.68
Jonas Valanciunas	46	47	0.02	0.48	-0.45	-0.03	2	0	2	13.9	15.2	-1.27	15.7	16.8	-1.06
Jaxson Hayes	26	26	-0.35	0.85	-1.20	-0.12	-8	10	-18	15.2	14.3	0.92	15.8	16.4	-0.66
Dyson Daniels	47	46	-0.55	1.05	-1.61	-0.03	-18	20	-38	14.6	14.5	0.11	14.0	18.4	-4.36

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.64,0.67,0.68,0.71,0.69,0.67,0.71,0.7,0.68,0.78,0.78,0.79,0.77,0.78,0.82,0.75,0.76,0.75,0.7,0.56,0.51,0.54,0.43,0.42,0.39,0.48,0.45,0.62,0.69,0.66,0.63,0.52,0.42,0.22,0.29,0.33,0.53,0.53,0.81,0.82,0.81,0.72,0.84,0.96,1
Game		Similarity Score
DET 91, TOR 96	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.58,0.61,0.56,0.62,0.68,0.66,0.7,0.77,0.75,0.75,0.7,0.64,0.75,0.75,0.76,0.76,0.75,0.76,0.74,0.67,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.62,0.65,0.62,0.59,0.6,0.44,0.5,0.38,0.33,0.43,0.53,0.41,0.65,0.78,0.93,0.95,0.99,0.99,1	91.8%
HOU 70, SAS 83	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.55,0.62,0.61,0.62,0.61,0.63,0.67,0.69,0.71,0.65,0.66,0.69,0.66,0.71,0.76,0.7,0.63,0.66,0.72,0.64,0.59,0.54,0.65,0.54,0.52,0.55,0.48,0.55,0.52,0.59,0.56,0.63,0.52,0.46,0.34,0.25,0.33,0.47,0.69,0.81,0.96,1,1,1,1,1	90.8%
NOK 83, ORL 86	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.55,0.62,0.67,0.7,0.79,0.82,0.82,0.77,0.76,0.75,0.78,0.74,0.73,0.71,0.71,0.65,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.5,0.58,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.45,0.48,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.44,0.34,0.35,0.37,0.33,0.53,0.59,0.76,0.93,0.93,0.93,0.9,0.95,1	89.9%