NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	91		Excitement	7.1 [435]		MVP	CJ Miles (TOR): +20.3%
Toronto Raptors	96		Comeback	2.4 [716]		LVP	Ish Smith (DET): -26.4%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andre Drummond	0.18	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.18	0.15	0.05	0.03	15	76%	0.25	2	-0.08	3	33%	-0.02
Langston Galloway	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11	0.08	0.03	-0.00	8	69%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Tolliver	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.05	0.01	-0.02	6	75%	0.10	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Buycks	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	5	30%	0.01	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Boban Marjanovic	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	6	50%	-0.03	2	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Reggie Bullock	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	4	25%	-0.00	1	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Tobias Harris	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.06	-0.06	0.02	13	40%	-0.07	2	-0.07	4	100%	0.01
Avery Bradley	-0.20	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.22,-0.24,-0.22,-0.2	-0.06	-0.09	0.05	19	47%	-0.13	4	-0.08	2	0%	-0.03
Ish Smith	-0.26	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.16,-0.16,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26	-0.19	-0.10	-0.03	12	11%	-0.23	1	-0.04	4	25%	-0.02

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
CJ Miles	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.09,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0,-0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.10	0.08	-0.02	16	58%	0.24	1	-0.04	4	50%	-0.04
Kyle Lowry	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.02	0.10	-0.05	14	55%	0.22	3	-0.05	5	80%	0.00
Jakob Poeltl	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.01	0.01	6	57%	0.09	1	-0.05	2	0%	-0.05
Pascal Siakam	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	-0.02	0.00	2	100%	0.06	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Lucas Nogueira	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
OG Anunoby	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Norman Powell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.01	-0.04	0.00	3	50%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Delon Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04	-0.04	-0.06	-0.00	-0.03	5	33%	0.03	2	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Serge Ibaka	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	5	20%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jonas Valanciunas	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.05,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.03	0.02	12	57%	0.05	4	-0.11	6	100%	0.02
DeMar DeRozan	0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.05,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.08	-0.03	-0.01	15	50%	0.04	5	-0.14	4	75%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	30.1	1.7	26.6	14.7	24.6	1.8	30.1	129.5
league avg	25.1	2.3	28.6	15.0	27.2	2.3	32.6	134.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +51.1%

TOR +14.4%

DET -2.1%

DET -16.8%

TOR +3.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	TOR	NBA	DET	TOR	NBA
this game	14.4	15.6	14.7	93.8	101.1	107.5
season	14.9	14.6		106.4	112.7
opponent	14.8	14.7		105.9	106.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	14.3	14.3	14.5	14.4	14.4
TOR	11.8	16.3	19.0	16.2	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dwight Buycks	33	33	0.02	-0.52	0.54	0.02	0	-5	5	14.8	14.2	0.54	15.0	16.0	-0.98
Boban Marjanovic	22	22	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.03	1	-6	7	14.3	14.4	-0.11	14.3	16.0	-1.74
Avery Bradley	74	71	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.15	-2	-3	1	13.7	16.6	-2.84	15.4	16.4	-1.02
Anthony Tolliver	58	56	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.19	-2	-3	1	14.3	14.5	-0.14	15.7	15.5	0.25
Langston Galloway	47	47	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.43	5	-10	15	14.4	14.4	-0.04	16.3	15.0	1.28
Reggie Bullock	48	47	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.06	-8	3	-11	15.4	13.4	1.93	15.1	16.1	-0.96
Tobias Harris	65	65	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.23	-8	3	-11	14.4	14.5	-0.10	15.4	16.0	-0.52
Andre Drummond	74	72	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.32	-6	1	-7	14.6	13.9	0.64	16.2	13.7	2.58
Ish Smith	64	62	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.37	-5	0	-5	14.2	14.8	-0.54	16.0	15.0	0.98

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kyle Lowry	63	65	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.34	8	-3	11	16.3	14.2	2.10	14.4	14.3	0.09
Delon Wright	47	46	0.47	0.03	0.43	0.35	4	1	3	15.3	15.9	-0.66	14.6	14.3	0.31
DeMar DeRozan	74	77	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.31	5	0	5	15.6	15.8	-0.26	13.8	16.5	-2.71
CJ Miles	51	52	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.30	3	2	1	15.4	15.8	-0.43	14.4	14.4	-0.08
Jonas Valanciunas	54	55	0.33	0.17	0.15	0.24	3	2	1	15.8	15.3	0.47	14.2	14.6	-0.38
Jakob Poeltl	33	33	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.06	6	-1	7	15.5	15.7	-0.15	13.9	14.6	-0.70
Serge Ibaka	47	49	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.01	3	2	1	15.5	15.7	-0.24	14.4	14.4	0.01
Norman Powell	24	23	0.06	0.44	-0.39	0.06	0	5	-5	16.1	15.5	0.63	16.9	13.6	3.29
OG Anunoby	39	41	0.02	0.48	-0.45	0.05	-1	6	-7	15.3	15.8	-0.47	13.8	14.9	-1.12
Pascal Siakam	35	35	-0.06	0.56	-0.63	-0.01	-2	7	-9	15.3	15.8	-0.42	14.5	14.3	0.18
Lucas Nogueira	8	9	-0.07	0.57	-0.63	0.05	-4	9	-13	14.6	15.7	-1.08	17.1	14.1	2.99

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.58,0.61,0.56,0.62,0.68,0.66,0.7,0.77,0.75,0.75,0.7,0.64,0.75,0.75,0.76,0.76,0.75,0.76,0.74,0.67,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.62,0.65,0.62,0.59,0.6,0.44,0.5,0.38,0.33,0.43,0.53,0.41,0.65,0.78,0.93,0.95,0.99,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 70, SAS 83	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.55,0.62,0.61,0.62,0.61,0.63,0.67,0.69,0.71,0.65,0.66,0.69,0.66,0.71,0.76,0.7,0.63,0.66,0.72,0.64,0.59,0.54,0.65,0.54,0.52,0.55,0.48,0.55,0.52,0.59,0.56,0.63,0.52,0.46,0.34,0.25,0.33,0.47,0.69,0.81,0.96,1,1,1,1,1	92.3%
LAL 86, POR 96	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.54,0.52,0.56,0.62,0.66,0.66,0.68,0.65,0.66,0.68,0.7,0.7,0.66,0.66,0.6,0.63,0.59,0.56,0.61,0.61,0.72,0.56,0.5,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.55,0.68,0.65,0.65,0.7,0.67,0.56,0.5,0.48,0.48,0.58,0.58,0.53,0.76,0.87,0.89,0.97,1,0.99,1	91.9%
SEA 94, BOS 104	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.58,0.57,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.65,0.69,0.71,0.71,0.72,0.66,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.65,0.74,0.79,0.76,0.74,0.67,0.7,0.67,0.65,0.72,0.7,0.64,0.61,0.58,0.62,0.75,0.56,0.52,0.52,0.46,0.34,0.38,0.52,0.58,0.69,0.81,0.87,0.96,0.89,1,1,1	91.6%