NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	70		Excitement	5.6 [726]		MVP	Brent Barry (SAS): +22.7%
San Antonio Spurs	83		Comeback	3.0 [694]		LVP	David Wesley (HOU): -11.7%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Clar. Weatherspoon	0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	-0.01	4	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Bowen	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike James	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	-0.04	0.01	-0.03	7	36%	0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Bob Sura	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.03	0.03	6	67%	0.07	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Scott Padgett	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	4	50%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Dikembe Mutombo	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Jon Barry	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	4	25%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Yao Ming	-0.08	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.13,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.02	-0.05	0.01	14	53%	0.02	2	-0.09	6	100%	0.02
Tracy McGrady	-0.11	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.09	-0.03	-0.01	25	48%	0.05	5	-0.16	4	100%	0.03
David Wesley	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.07	-0.05	-0.00	4	25%	-0.06	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brent Barry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.2,0.2,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.23	0.11	0.13	0.01	11	71%	0.23	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.04	0.02	7	69%	0.09	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Rasho Nesterovic	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.01	10	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.08	0.03	-0.03	13	39%	0.02	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Nazr Mohammed	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	3	25%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Beno Udrih	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sean Marks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	4	20%	-0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	-0.03	-0.03	14	49%	-0.01	3	-0.07	9	89%	0.03
Robert Horry	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.06	-0.04	-0.00	14	39%	-0.07	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	32.5	3.7	32.4	18.4	26.4	3.4	33.6	150.3
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +4.1%

SAS +7.9%

SAS +17.9%

SAS +21.2%

HOU -1.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	SAS	NBA	HOU	SAS	NBA
this game	16.3	17.0	15.5	81.4	95.4	104.0
season	16.0	16.3		104.2	105.8
opponent	15.6	15.8		98.4	100.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	16.9	18.0	15.8	14.8	16.3
SAS	13.8	19.9	19.4	15.8	17.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dikembe Mutombo	21	23	0.06	-0.56	0.61	0.03	1	-14	15	17.1	16.0	1.13	17.7	16.8	0.89
Ryan Bowen	0	1	0.02	-0.52	0.54	0.02	0	-13	13	0.0	16.3	-16.29	3.0	17.2	-14.16
Bob Sura	65	67	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	0.10	-5	-8	3	15.0	20.2	-5.22	17.1	16.8	0.26
Clar. Weatherspoon	31	29	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	0.01	-5	-8	3	16.7	16.1	0.60	17.4	16.8	0.57
Tracy McGrady	78	80	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.01	-6	-7	1	16.1	18.4	-2.30	17.2	14.6	2.64
Scott Padgett	49	51	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	-0.19	-1	-12	11	15.7	17.0	-1.29	17.4	16.5	0.90
Jon Barry	29	29	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.15	-4	-9	5	18.0	15.4	2.63	17.2	16.9	0.36
Mike James	32	30	-0.44	-0.06	-0.37	-0.11	-11	-2	-9	17.7	15.5	2.22	16.4	17.3	-0.97
Yao Ming	59	58	-0.57	0.07	-0.65	-0.13	-15	2	-17	16.7	15.4	1.29	16.8	17.4	-0.67
David Wesley	66	67	-0.70	0.20	-0.91	-0.15	-19	6	-25	16.0	17.4	-1.45	16.6	18.3	-1.75

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tony Parker	70	70	0.64	-0.14	0.78	0.17	16	-3	19	16.7	18.1	-1.39	16.0	17.6	-1.64
Manu Ginobili	66	67	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.16	16	-3	19	16.6	18.2	-1.57	16.4	15.9	0.51
Robert Horry	47	48	0.51	-0.01	0.51	0.18	11	2	9	16.8	17.3	-0.51	16.7	15.8	0.90
Rasho Nesterovic	65	65	0.47	0.03	0.45	0.21	9	4	5	17.1	16.6	0.55	16.0	17.1	-1.13
Brent Barry	54	51	0.42	0.08	0.35	0.07	12	1	11	16.4	18.0	-1.56	16.6	15.8	0.83
Bruce Bowen	66	65	0.09	0.41	-0.32	-0.03	4	9	-5	17.6	15.1	2.45	15.4	19.0	-3.58
Nazr Mohammed	22	21	0.03	0.47	-0.45	-0.09	4	9	-5	16.6	17.1	-0.55	17.1	16.0	1.13
Beno Udrih	10	10	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	-0.02	-1	14	-15	16.6	17.1	-0.45	20.1	15.8	4.31
Sean Marks	28	27	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	-0.03	-4	17	-21	18.0	16.5	1.53	16.8	16.1	0.71

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.55,0.62,0.61,0.62,0.61,0.63,0.67,0.69,0.71,0.65,0.66,0.69,0.66,0.71,0.76,0.7,0.63,0.66,0.72,0.64,0.59,0.54,0.65,0.54,0.52,0.55,0.48,0.55,0.52,0.59,0.56,0.63,0.52,0.46,0.34,0.25,0.33,0.47,0.69,0.81,0.96,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 97, PHX 99	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.44,0.49,0.57,0.66,0.68,0.7,0.68,0.66,0.7,0.67,0.56,0.62,0.67,0.65,0.61,0.66,0.69,0.69,0.67,0.61,0.58,0.6,0.63,0.58,0.48,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.69,0.59,0.44,0.44,0.5,0.34,0.33,0.42,0.58,0.79,0.8,0.91,0.89,0.89,0.94,0.96,1	92.7%
BOS 89, CLE 97	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.57,0.63,0.69,0.69,0.71,0.7,0.74,0.72,0.73,0.71,0.73,0.82,0.75,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.7,0.63,0.62,0.69,0.64,0.61,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.55,0.56,0.6,0.57,0.58,0.48,0.43,0.43,0.53,0.74,0.85,0.9,0.89,0.96,0.98,1,1	92.6%
ORL 86, TOR 97	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.54,0.66,0.63,0.64,0.73,0.72,0.73,0.75,0.7,0.7,0.74,0.73,0.71,0.71,0.7,0.66,0.71,0.78,0.77,0.75,0.73,0.65,0.63,0.64,0.55,0.61,0.65,0.62,0.62,0.56,0.6,0.48,0.42,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.58,0.74,0.85,0.83,0.97,1,1,1,1	92.5%