NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	94		Excitement	8.9 [151]		MVP	Chimezie Metu (SAC): +98.0%
Sacramento Kings	95		Comeback	38.5 [47]		LVP	Dwight Powell (DAL): -15.5%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kristaps Porzingis	0.40	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.18,0.25,0.2,0.2,0.4	0.00	0.33	-0.07	19	52%	0.46	3	-0.06	8	87%	0.12
Sterling Brown	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.07	0.07	-0.00	5	80%	0.14	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jalen Brunson	0.14	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.12,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.22,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14	0.11	0.04	0.01	19	64%	0.21	2	-0.08	1	100%	0.01
Dorian Finney-Smith	0.02	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.06	-0.02	0.02	8	69%	0.15	1	-0.13	0	0%	0.00
Moses Brown	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	-0.00	3	62%	0.04	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Theo Pinson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Frank Ntilikina	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	8	56%	0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Isaiah Thomas	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	8	37%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh Green	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	6	33%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Powell	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.09	-0.07	-0.00	4	20%	-0.10	2	-0.05	2	0%	-0.10

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chimezie Metu	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.98	0.98	0.08	0.88	-0.03	8	69%	0.98	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Davion Mitchell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.09	-0.01	0.01	9	78%	0.13	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Marvin Bagley III	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.01	-0.00	8	61%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
De'Aaron Fox	0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.06,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.02	0.06	0.01	12	57%	0.14	3	-0.07	4	50%	-0.02
Harrison Barnes	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.08,0.08,0.08,-0.01	-0.01	0.05	-0.06	-0.00	10	58%	0.02	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Richaun Holmes	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.08,-0.04	-0.04	0.01	-0.03	0.01	5	67%	0.03	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.04
Damian Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	0.01	5	60%	0.03	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Buddy Hield	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	-0.01	5	30%	-0.01	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Tyrese Haliburton	0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,-0.01,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.04	-0.10	-0.03	13	41%	-0.08	2	-0.04	3	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.3	2.7	26.3	15.4	25.6	1.7	37.3	133.3
league avg	25.6	2.3	28.1	14.7	28.0	2.3	32.3	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +50.4%

DAL -3.2%

DAL -6.8%

SAC +6.3%

SAC +3.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	SAC	NBA	DAL	SAC	NBA
this game	17.1	14.9	14.5	104.4	105.6	110.8
season	15.6	14.0		112.4	109.2
opponent	14.6	14.5		114.4	109.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	15.4	17.3	17.3	18.6	17.1
SAC	15.2	13.3	15.5	15.7	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kristaps Porzingis	66	66	0.33	-0.83	1.16	0.27	2	-3	5	17.1	17.0	0.09	14.8	15.2	-0.38
Theo Pinson	16	15	0.27	-0.77	1.05	0.22	2	-3	5	18.0	16.9	1.08	13.3	15.2	-1.95
Dorian Finney-Smith	47	49	0.25	-0.75	1.00	0.22	1	-2	3	17.4	16.8	0.52	15.6	14.1	1.50
Moses Brown	18	19	0.21	-0.71	0.92	-0.06	9	-10	19	15.6	17.5	-1.88	14.8	14.9	-0.06
Isaiah Thomas	24	27	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	-0.01	-1	0	-1	15.8	17.6	-1.80	13.9	15.3	-1.43
Frank Ntilikina	71	71	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.49	6	-7	13	17.3	16.6	0.67	15.5	12.7	2.73
Jalen Brunson	69	66	-0.53	0.03	-0.55	-0.47	-2	1	-3	17.6	15.6	1.95	14.8	15.1	-0.32
Sterling Brown	33	34	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.67	3	-4	7	17.4	16.9	0.49	13.6	15.7	-2.04
Dwight Powell	53	50	-0.79	0.29	-1.07	-0.46	-11	10	-21	17.0	17.3	-0.32	15.1	14.6	0.48
Josh Green	54	54	-1.20	0.70	-1.90	-0.79	-14	13	-27	17.0	17.3	-0.37	15.1	14.5	0.65

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
De'Aaron Fox	61	63	0.97	-0.47	1.44	0.62	12	-11	23	15.4	13.9	1.46	17.3	16.6	0.79
Harrison Barnes	61	62	0.86	-0.36	1.23	0.66	7	-6	13	15.7	13.2	2.43	17.2	17.0	0.16
Tyrese Haliburton	68	68	0.41	0.09	0.33	0.56	-5	6	-11	14.8	15.3	-0.51	16.9	17.9	-1.00
Chimezie Metu	40	39	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.68	-10	11	-21	14.6	15.1	-0.43	16.0	18.0	-2.01
Buddy Hield	44	45	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.46	-4	5	-9	14.0	15.7	-1.69	16.9	17.3	-0.36
Marvin Bagley III	50	50	0.24	0.26	-0.03	-0.09	11	-10	21	15.1	14.6	0.43	17.9	16.1	1.73
Damian Jones	41	40	0.11	0.39	-0.28	-0.10	7	-6	13	15.4	14.5	0.88	17.0	17.2	-0.20
Davion Mitchell	36	34	-0.31	0.81	-1.12	-0.19	-4	5	-9	14.1	15.4	-1.39	17.0	17.2	-0.23
Richaun Holmes	49	49	-0.50	1.00	-1.51	-0.24	-9	10	-19	14.5	15.4	-0.88	17.6	16.6	0.97

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.45,0.39,0.36,0.4,0.36,0.37,0.38,0.31,0.36,0.3,0.34,0.31,0.34,0.35,0.37,0.44,0.48,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.67,0.82,0.81,0.75,0.78,0.81,0.67,0.79,0.78,0.66,0.56,0.48,0.52,0.62,0.57,0.34,0.38,0.27,0.36,0.29,0.33,0.45,0.29,0.57,0.58,1
Game		Similarity Score
IND 102, ATL 103	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.54,0.47,0.44,0.39,0.41,0.37,0.38,0.37,0.36,0.32,0.38,0.34,0.36,0.42,0.42,0.34,0.36,0.44,0.42,0.49,0.64,0.58,0.69,0.76,0.7,0.73,0.76,0.79,0.77,0.69,0.74,0.74,0.68,0.54,0.48,0.38,0.28,0.28,0.26,0.4,0.34,0.45,0.54,0.45,0.72,1	90.4%
HOU 86, DAL 88	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.43,0.39,0.43,0.47,0.42,0.4,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.44,0.49,0.48,0.54,0.66,0.74,0.7,0.8,0.73,0.68,0.69,0.72,0.78,0.73,0.77,0.68,0.65,0.59,0.61,0.6,0.46,0.43,0.3,0.38,0.42,0.47,0.59,0.39,0.38,0.45,0.55,0.57,1	89.6%
LAL 91, SAC 92	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.38,0.35,0.36,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.54,0.56,0.59,0.66,0.67,0.67,0.63,0.74,0.75,0.75,0.76,0.79,0.74,0.68,0.62,0.59,0.67,0.56,0.46,0.48,0.43,0.38,0.42,0.47,0.29,0.27,0.32,0.37,0.45,0.26,1	89.6%