NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	121		Excitement	8.0 [286]		MVP	Kevin Huerter (ATL): +41.3%
San Antonio Spurs	120		Comeback	31.6 [21]		LVP	DeMar DeRozan (SAS): -23.2%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Huerter	0.41	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.41	0.00	0.42	0.01	17	53%	0.49	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Trae Young	0.18	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.12,0.16,0.12,0.18	0.20	-0.01	0.02	16	79%	0.32	3	-0.14	7	71%	-0.04
Vince Carter	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.09	0.00	-0.00	7	78%	0.12	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00
Cam Reddish	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08	0.12	-0.02	0.02	13	81%	0.19	4	-0.11	1	100%	0.00
Damian Jones	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
John Collins	0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.05,0.04,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.06	-0.01	0.01	13	60%	0.06	1	-0.01	4	75%	-0.00
Bruno Fernando	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	2	50%	0.00	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Brandon Goodwin	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	-0.00	-0.01	6	33%	-0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
DeAndre' Bembry	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	-0.02	2	20%	-0.04	2	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
De'Andre Hunter	-0.10	0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	5	37%	-0.02	2	-0.08	6	67%	-0.02

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LaMarcus Aldridge	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.19,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.28,0.22,0.22	0.22	0.13	0.10	0.01	20	64%	0.29	2	-0.07	7	100%	0.06
Patty Mills	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.06	0.02	-0.01	11	68%	0.13	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Lonnie Walker IV	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	0.00	0.00	7	64%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derrick White	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	-0.01	6	53%	0.05	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.01
Dejounte Murray	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.01	0.01	10	54%	0.05	2	-0.05	4	75%	0.00
Marco Belinelli	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	-0.01	10	45%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jakob Poeltl	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.06	-0.01	4	50%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Trey Lyles	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	3	0%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Bryn Forbes	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.07	-0.04	-0.00	9	35%	-0.06	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
DeMar DeRozan	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.07,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,-0.23	-0.23	0.02	-0.25	0.01	18	58%	-0.13	4	-0.10	7	100%	0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.7	2.7	24.9	14.8	31.5	2.3	33.0	133.8
league avg	25.6	2.3	28.1	14.7	28.0	2.3	32.4	134.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +108.9%

SAS -20.1%

SAS -15.8%

SAS -17.4%

SAS -5.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	SAS	NBA	ATL	SAS	NBA
this game	13.6	13.5	14.2	113.1	113.2	109.6
season	13.8	14.1		106.6	110.8
opponent	14.2	14.0		112.0	113.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	12.8	11.9	17.0	13.1	13.6
SAS	14.4	12.1	11.4	16.4	13.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
John Collins	58	58	0.95	-0.45	1.39	0.56	13	-12	25	13.3	13.9	-0.53	14.0	12.8	1.24
De'Andre Hunter	66	65	0.76	-0.26	1.01	0.67	3	-2	5	12.8	14.9	-2.12	13.6	13.3	0.21
Cam Reddish	81	82	0.75	-0.25	1.00	0.52	8	-7	15	13.3	14.5	-1.23	13.8	12.5	1.31
Kevin Huerter	76	75	0.56	-0.06	0.61	0.44	4	-3	7	13.4	13.9	-0.42	14.1	12.0	2.03
Trae Young	77	76	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.18	8	-7	15	13.3	14.4	-1.11	14.1	11.8	2.33
Bruno Fernando	18	19	0.08	0.42	-0.34	-0.07	5	-4	9	14.1	13.5	0.65	12.4	13.7	-1.28
DeAndre' Bembry	42	41	-0.07	0.57	-0.63	0.23	-10	11	-21	14.5	13.0	1.53	12.7	14.0	-1.33
Brandon Goodwin	36	36	-0.19	0.69	-0.87	0.02	-7	8	-15	14.3	13.2	1.07	11.7	14.4	-2.65
Vince Carter	50	49	-0.22	0.72	-0.95	-0.16	-2	3	-5	14.5	12.8	1.75	12.9	14.0	-1.07
Damian Jones	31	29	-0.52	1.02	-1.55	-0.03	-17	18	-35	13.7	13.5	0.20	13.0	13.6	-0.60

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Lonnie Walker IV	33	35	0.31	-0.81	1.12	0.08	8	-9	17	13.4	13.5	-0.07	15.3	12.7	2.63
Bryn Forbes	56	58	0.07	-0.57	0.64	0.16	-3	2	-5	13.8	13.1	0.67	13.8	13.3	0.41
Marco Belinelli	38	39	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	0.11	-5	4	-9	13.2	13.6	-0.45	13.5	13.6	-0.13
LaMarcus Aldridge	60	62	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	0.19	-8	7	-15	14.8	11.7	3.06	12.9	14.5	-1.55
Trey Lyles	45	45	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.29	5	-6	11	13.2	13.7	-0.47	12.9	14.1	-1.18
Jakob Poeltl	46	44	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.35	7	-8	15	11.7	14.8	-3.06	14.8	12.7	2.08
DeMar DeRozan	84	84	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.54	-1	0	-1	13.6	13.1	0.48	13.4	14.2	-0.77
Derrick White	42	41	-0.59	0.09	-0.68	-0.50	-3	2	-5	12.6	14.0	-1.41	14.1	13.2	0.89
Patty Mills	55	54	-0.65	0.15	-0.79	-0.56	-3	2	-5	13.3	13.6	-0.26	13.1	14.0	-0.85
Dejounte Murray	71	73	-0.70	0.20	-0.91	-0.65	-2	1	-3	14.1	12.3	1.77	13.0	14.7	-1.66

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.44,0.43,0.43,0.47,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.46,0.47,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.44,0.31,0.31,0.28,0.19,0.18,0.25,0.29,0.28,0.28,0.48,0.42,0.58,0.65,0.86,0.9,0.94,0.9,0.9,0.87,0.97,0.87,0.88,0.89,0.89,0.73,0.85,0.85,0.91,0.91,0
Game		Similarity Score
POR 106, PHX 104	0.5,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.54,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.4,0.42,0.4,0.44,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.53,0.52,0.46,0.51,0.45,0.37,0.24,0.31,0.45,0.58,0.52,0.62,0.71,0.76,0.82,0.84,0.93,0.87,0.84,0.75,0.92,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.95,0.81,0.78,0.76,0.73,0	88.5%
MIA 106, CHA 105	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.34,0.32,0.3,0.36,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.42,0.41,0.39,0.36,0.34,0.39,0.46,0.36,0.25,0.25,0.31,0.28,0.33,0.3,0.36,0.38,0.52,0.58,0.52,0.67,0.79,0.87,0.78,0.75,0.83,0.68,0.9,0.84,0.91,0.97,0.93,0.94,0.96,0	88.2%
CHI 105, NYK 103	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.42,0.45,0.43,0.39,0.4,0.42,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.47,0.45,0.46,0.35,0.3,0.39,0.34,0.33,0.39,0.46,0.5,0.49,0.4,0.45,0.58,0.65,0.68,0.71,0.69,0.76,0.83,0.85,0.81,0.78,0.88,0.86,0.81,0.79,0.76,0.61,0.55,0.79,0.84,0.63,0	88.1%