NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	106		Excitement	7.9 [289]		MVP	Kelly Olynyk (MIA): +38.2%
Charlotte Hornets	105		Comeback	84.5 [11]		LVP	Kemba Walker (CHA): -35.4%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kelly Olynyk	0.38	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.38	-0.01	0.39	-0.01	17	44%	0.42	1	-0.03	2	50%	0.01
James Johnson	0.34	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.34	0.11	0.25	0.02	12	79%	0.43	3	-0.09	4	75%	-0.01
Wayne Ellington	0.24	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.24,0.24	0.20	0.05	0.01	15	81%	0.27	1	-0.03	2	0%	-0.02
Derrick Walton Jr.	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bam Adebayo	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	-0.00	4	75%	0.06	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Hassan Whiteside	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	-0.01	10	50%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Derrick Jones Jr.	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	2	50%	0.02	2	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01
Justise Winslow	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	4	37%	-0.01	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Josh Richardson	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.07	-0.06	0.02	20	40%	-0.08	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01

Charlotte Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nicolas Batum	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.16,0.23,0.27,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.22,0.22,0.26,0.19	0.19	0.13	0.05	0.00	12	76%	0.30	4	-0.12	10	90%	0.04
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.10	0.08	0.01	10	64%	0.17	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Dwight Howard	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.09	0.04	0.00	8	67%	0.13	0	0.00	5	40%	-0.05
Frank Kaminsky	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.06	0.05	0.00	8	67%	0.14	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Johnny O'Bryant III	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.02	0.00	4	62%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Treveon Graham	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.04	-0.00	3	50%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Carter-Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeremy Lamb	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.02	13	35%	-0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Marvin Williams	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.08	-0.00	-0.01	5	0%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kemba Walker	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.02,0,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.35	-0.35	-0.04	-0.30	0.01	25	42%	-0.32	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.4	2.4	26.8	14.7	25.5	2.5	30.7	126.9
league avg	25.1	2.3	28.6	15.0	27.2	2.3	32.6	134.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +52.9%

MIA +24.5%

CHA -12.3%

CHA -18.5%

MIA +3.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	CHA	NBA	MIA	CHA	NBA
this game	15.4	14.2	14.7	109.3	108.2	107.5
season	15.1	14.6		105.4	108.7
opponent	14.5	14.6		108.5	105.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.9	15.9	17.7	12.4	15.4
CHA	14.1	14.7	12.3	15.8	14.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
James Johnson	62	61	0.85	-0.35	1.20	0.56	10	-9	19	14.4	17.3	-2.93	14.0	14.6	-0.62
Josh Richardson	76	76	0.70	-0.20	0.89	0.43	9	-8	17	15.1	16.7	-1.62	13.7	16.0	-2.30
Bam Adebayo	47	47	0.69	-0.19	0.89	0.46	8	-7	15	14.6	16.3	-1.69	15.3	13.3	2.04
Kelly Olynyk	46	48	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.54	1	0	1	15.5	15.4	0.07	15.0	13.5	1.53
Wayne Ellington	74	74	0.42	0.08	0.35	0.48	-2	3	-5	15.0	16.8	-1.76	14.4	13.9	0.44
Derrick Jones Jr.	41	42	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	-0.02	0	1	-1	16.2	14.9	1.39	13.1	15.1	-2.03
Derrick Walton Jr.	40	39	-0.11	0.61	-0.73	-0.08	-1	2	-3	16.1	15.0	1.16	15.2	13.6	1.56
Hassan Whiteside	50	50	-0.14	0.64	-0.79	0.06	-7	8	-15	16.3	14.6	1.69	13.3	15.3	-2.04
Justise Winslow	49	48	-0.46	0.96	-1.42	-0.08	-13	14	-27	16.7	14.2	2.53	14.6	13.9	0.79

Charlotte Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Frank Kaminsky	38	37	0.28	-0.78	1.07	0.02	9	-10	19	14.8	13.9	0.98	17.1	14.4	2.65
Johnny O'Bryant III	24	26	0.06	-0.56	0.62	0.03	1	-2	3	14.8	14.1	0.78	16.2	15.2	1.08
Treveon Graham	28	28	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	0.11	-4	3	-7	15.7	13.7	2.01	15.9	15.3	0.63
Michael Carter-Williams	22	24	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	0.04	-2	1	-3	15.3	13.9	1.38	16.4	15.1	1.29
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist	59	59	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	0.04	-8	7	-15	14.2	14.3	-0.03	14.6	16.7	-2.08
Jeremy Lamb	38	38	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.52	7	-8	15	14.3	14.2	0.03	16.7	14.6	2.08
Kemba Walker	75	73	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.51	1	-2	3	13.9	15.3	-1.38	15.1	16.4	-1.29
Nicolas Batum	69	69	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.58	3	-4	7	13.7	15.7	-2.01	15.3	15.9	-0.63
Dwight Howard	73	71	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.50	-2	1	-3	14.1	14.8	-0.78	15.2	16.2	-1.08
Marvin Williams	59	60	-0.78	0.28	-1.07	-0.49	-10	9	-19	13.9	14.8	-0.98	14.4	17.1	-2.65

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.34,0.32,0.3,0.36,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.42,0.41,0.39,0.36,0.34,0.39,0.46,0.36,0.25,0.25,0.31,0.28,0.33,0.3,0.36,0.38,0.52,0.58,0.52,0.67,0.79,0.87,0.78,0.75,0.83,0.68,0.9,0.84,0.91,0.97,0.93,0.94,0.96,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 102, HOU 100	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.4,0.47,0.4,0.42,0.4,0.3,0.29,0.31,0.46,0.42,0.39,0.3,0.4,0.34,0.33,0.33,0.42,0.42,0.35,0.38,0.52,0.63,0.68,0.78,0.82,0.57,0.57,0.73,0.78,0.84,0.97,0.98,0.9,0.91,0.91,0	90.5%
MIA 113, HOU 110	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.38,0.35,0.31,0.26,0.23,0.25,0.27,0.29,0.36,0.35,0.32,0.29,0.29,0.27,0.33,0.42,0.34,0.39,0.39,0.31,0.44,0.42,0.4,0.46,0.31,0.3,0.3,0.42,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.63,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.66,0.83,0.85,0.78,0.88,0.83,0.89,0.79,0.83,0.91,0	90.1%
PHX 102, DEN 99	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.49,0.45,0.37,0.31,0.34,0.38,0.34,0.3,0.32,0.34,0.35,0.29,0.25,0.23,0.24,0.31,0.36,0.36,0.37,0.4,0.37,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.55,0.56,0.63,0.81,0.74,0.7,0.87,0.82,0.76,0.91,0.94,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,0.99,0.73,0	90.1%