NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	117		Excitement	10.6 [68]		MVP	Marco Belinelli (SAS): +48.4%
Toronto Raptors	120		Comeback	4.0 [438]		LVP	Davis Bertans (SAS): -18.7%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Marco Belinelli	0.48	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.48	0.05	0.41	-0.03	15	64%	0.56	3	-0.08	3	67%	0.04
Patty Mills	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.08	0.03	0.01	11	62%	0.10	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jakob Poeltl	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.04	0.06	-0.00	4	100%	0.15	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Derrick White	0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	-0.06	0.08	-0.02	9	35%	0.06	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.03
Rudy Gay	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.02	-0.03	0.01	10	55%	0.02	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.02
Bryn Forbes	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.02	-0.04	0.01	9	50%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
LaMarcus Aldridge	-0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.08	0.02	-0.00	8	33%	0.00	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
DeMar DeRozan	-0.09	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.16,0.16,0.25,0.2,0.11,0.18,0.09,-0.09	0.10	-0.18	0.01	12	70%	0.22	4	-0.32	9	100%	0.08
Davis Bertans	-0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.14,0.14,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.17,0.15,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0,0.12,-0.19	0.09	-0.27	0.00	11	67%	-0.14	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.06

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kawhi Leonard	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.1,0.01,0.26	0.26	-0.02	0.25	-0.02	23	45%	0.27	1	-0.01	10	90%	0.03
Danny Green	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.17	0.04	0.01	9	94%	0.20	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Pascal Siakam	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.08,0.12,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,-0.01,0.16	0.16	0.13	0.04	0.01	10	76%	0.33	2	-0.17	9	67%	-0.04
OG Anunoby	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.10	0.05	0.00	4	112%	0.15	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeremy Lin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.01	0.10	-0.00	11	44%	0.11	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Kyle Lowry	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.02,0,0,0.04,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.06	0.05	0.01	10	71%	0.15	3	-0.06	4	100%	0.02
Patrick McCaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marc Gasol	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.08	0.01	-0.01	7	29%	0.00	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Norman Powell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.06	-0.05	-0.00	6	17%	-0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Serge Ibaka	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,0.03,0.08,0.04,0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.15	-0.15	-0.04	-0.12	-0.00	13	41%	-0.12	1	-0.04	6	67%	-0.08

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.1	2.8	28.6	15.4	31.4	3.4	37.1	143.8
league avg	25.3	2.2	27.8	14.6	27.6	2.2	31.9	132.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +15.9%

SAS -12.7%

TOR +22.7%

TOR +25.2%

SAS -1.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	TOR	NBA	SAS	TOR	NBA
this game	14.0	13.8	14.3	112.5	116.5	109.3
season	14.8	14.3		111.7	111.5
opponent	14.5	14.4		105.9	110.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	12.0	14.4	16.2	13.8	14.0
TOR	13.7	15.0	12.6	13.9	13.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Davis Bertans	61	58	0.02	-0.52	0.53	-0.36	13	-16	29	13.4	14.8	-1.37	13.7	14.0	-0.37
Patty Mills	61	62	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.31	10	-13	23	12.8	15.7	-2.84	13.8	13.9	-0.14
Rudy Gay	51	51	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	0.05	-3	0	-3	15.2	12.9	2.29	14.1	13.5	0.56
Jakob Poeltl	37	37	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	-0.10	-2	-1	-1	12.7	14.7	-2.03	14.9	13.2	1.68
LaMarcus Aldridge	67	66	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.31	-1	-2	1	14.7	12.7	2.03	13.2	14.9	-1.68
Marco Belinelli	70	69	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.40	1	-4	5	13.2	15.8	-2.61	13.5	14.5	-1.07
Derrick White	43	41	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.11	-13	10	-23	15.7	12.8	2.84	13.9	13.8	0.14
DeMar DeRozan	72	75	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.40	-5	2	-7	14.3	13.2	1.10	13.5	14.6	-1.14
Bryn Forbes	58	56	-0.56	0.06	-0.63	-0.12	-15	12	-27	14.2	13.8	0.41	14.6	12.9	1.66

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Serge Ibaka	66	65	0.70	-0.20	0.89	0.55	5	-2	7	14.6	12.4	2.16	13.6	14.7	-1.13
Kawhi Leonard	76	75	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.36	8	-5	13	13.6	14.3	-0.65	14.1	13.9	0.16
Kyle Lowry	75	77	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.29	1	2	-1	13.8	14.0	-0.20	13.8	14.5	-0.69
Danny Green	64	63	0.31	0.19	0.13	0.23	3	0	3	13.5	14.4	-0.92	14.0	14.1	-0.15
OG Anunoby	34	34	0.29	0.21	0.09	0.18	4	-1	5	14.1	13.7	0.36	14.3	13.9	0.38
Norman Powell	28	29	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.10	4	-1	5	13.6	13.9	-0.24	14.3	13.9	0.46
Jeremy Lin	41	43	0.12	0.38	-0.25	0.15	-1	4	-5	14.5	13.4	1.12	13.7	14.2	-0.49
Pascal Siakam	71	72	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.31	-8	11	-19	13.8	13.8	-0.04	13.7	14.6	-0.84
Patrick McCaw	23	24	0.07	0.43	-0.36	-0.02	3	0	3	14.2	13.7	0.52	14.5	13.8	0.69
Marc Gasol	37	38	-0.20	0.70	-0.91	-0.09	-4	7	-11	12.4	14.6	-2.16	15.1	13.4	1.73

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.58,0.53,0.55,0.57,0.59,0.55,0.62,0.49,0.47,0.57,0.55,0.6,0.58,0.53,0.42,0.44,0.39,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.5,0.48,0.52,0.61,0.67,0.61,0.68,0.65,0.62,0.59,0.44,0.4,0.38,0.43,0.29,0.33,0.37,0.47,0.81,0.73,0.62,0.64,0.65,0.42,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 99, DAL 104	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.59,0.6,0.55,0.51,0.48,0.53,0.51,0.56,0.48,0.47,0.4,0.47,0.44,0.41,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.56,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.43,0.52,0.48,0.39,0.42,0.58,0.62,0.59,0.44,0.37,0.32,0.34,0.34,0.38,0.33,0.37,0.47,0.71,0.72,0.68,0.63,0.45,0.58,1	90.7%
PHI 102, MIN 107	0.5,0.49,0.43,0.52,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.52,0.44,0.53,0.51,0.44,0.35,0.37,0.29,0.39,0.44,0.4,0.44,0.42,0.45,0.42,0.45,0.55,0.61,0.71,0.63,0.59,0.63,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.57,0.57,0.52,0.58,0.53,0.65,0.78,0.69,0.72,0.55,0.42,1	90.6%
DAL 66, UTA 68	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.41,0.44,0.49,0.55,0.49,0.55,0.56,0.55,0.5,0.5,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.46,0.47,0.41,0.39,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.51,0.58,0.51,0.55,0.64,0.61,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.56,0.48,0.5,0.48,0.47,0.57,0.58,0.53,0.71,0.82,0.81,0.77,0.55,0.57,1	90.0%