NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Oklahoma City Thunder	147		Excitement	11.6 [38]		MVP	LaMarcus Aldridge (SAS): +62.8%
San Antonio Spurs	154		Comeback	2.2 [462]		LVP	DeMar DeRozan (SAS): -36.7%

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Terrance Ferguson	0.44	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.3,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.44	0.18	0.25	-0.00	12	87%	0.47	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Steven Adams	0.29	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29	0.06	0.23	-0.00	13	63%	0.35	2	-0.06	4	75%	0.01
Jerami Grant	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.09,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,-0.07,0.16,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.28,0.28,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.18,0.18	0.02	0.16	0.01	20	54%	0.31	3	-0.14	6	67%	-0.03
Abdel Nader	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.08	0.07	-0.00	4	112%	0.17	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dennis Schroder	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.02,0.02	-0.00	0.01	-0.01	14	47%	0.05	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Hamidou Diallo	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Patrick Patterson	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Paul George	-0.14	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.17,0.09,-0.08,-0.17,-0.25,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.14	0.06	-0.20	0.00	25	53%	-0.03	2	-0.10	7	71%	0.02
Russell Westbrook	-0.25	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.06,-0.12,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25	-0.02	-0.21	0.02	22	49%	-0.13	3	-0.12	5	40%	-0.03

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LaMarcus Aldridge	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.12,0.17,0.3,0.41,0.36,0.36,0.4,0.45,0.53,0.53,0.54,0.49,0.56,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.63	0.63	0.23	0.42	0.02	33	68%	0.80	5	-0.18	16	100%	0.16
Derrick White	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.11,0.35,0.34,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.34,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.41	0.41	0.10	0.38	0.08	17	64%	0.47	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.00
Patty Mills	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.28,0.28	0.28	0.13	0.14	-0.00	7	93%	0.29	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Marco Belinelli	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.1,0.12,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.14	0.02	-0.04	10	86%	0.20	2	-0.00	2	100%	0.01
Davis Bertans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.16	0.01	0.00	4	150%	0.17	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bryn Forbes	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,0,0,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.09	0.02	-0.01	6	93%	0.18	3	-0.07	3	100%	0.02
Pau Gasol	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jakob Poeltl	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dante Cunningham	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeMar DeRozan	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.05,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29,-0.4,-0.4,-0.4,-0.33,-0.37,-0.37	-0.37	-0.18	-0.21	-0.03	22	33%	-0.25	4	-0.12	5	40%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1		OT2	Total
this game	27.3	2.8	28.0	15.7	28.3	2.8	38.0	2.4	8.1	2.6	25.3	181.2
league avg	25.3	2.2	27.8	14.6	27.6	2.2	31.9	3.3	15.6	3.3	15.6	132.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +50.1%

SAS +15.6%

OKC -29.6%

SAS +5.8%

SAS +8.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	OKC	SAS	NBA	OKC	SAS	NBA
this game	13.0	15.7	14.3	118.5	129.4	109.3
season	12.9	14.8		108.9	111.7
opponent	14.4	14.9		110.4	106.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
OKC	12.8	13.0	13.0	12.2	14.2	12.9
SAS	14.4	15.2	15.8	17.0	19.1	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Hamidou Diallo	25	25	0.36	-0.86	1.21	0.09	9	-16	25	12.9	13.0	-0.10	15.6	15.7	-0.17
Abdel Nader	28	28	0.20	-0.70	0.89	0.08	4	-11	15	11.8	13.3	-1.52	14.6	16.0	-1.43
Steven Adams	80	79	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	-0.02	-4	-3	-1	12.9	13.1	-0.21	15.1	16.8	-1.66
Patrick Patterson	26	26	-0.14	-0.35	0.21	-0.14	0	-7	7	13.1	13.0	0.15	15.2	15.8	-0.60
Terrance Ferguson	77	75	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.26	-2	-5	3	12.8	13.4	-0.62	16.2	14.8	1.36
Russell Westbrook	103	99	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.32	-5	-2	-3	13.3	11.5	1.83	16.0	14.0	1.98
Dennis Schroder	79	74	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.22	-10	3	-13	12.7	13.6	-0.87	15.4	16.2	-0.77
Jerami Grant	94	87	-0.63	0.13	-0.75	-0.30	-11	4	-15	13.4	11.8	1.58	15.8	15.4	0.44
Paul George	99	94	-0.86	0.36	-1.21	-0.39	-16	9	-25	13.0	12.9	0.10	15.7	15.6	0.17

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bryn Forbes	85	86	0.87	-0.37	1.25	0.43	15	-8	23	16.1	14.7	1.35	13.4	12.1	1.29
Davis Bertans	52	54	0.84	-0.34	1.18	0.37	16	-9	25	16.2	15.3	0.84	12.8	13.1	-0.33
LaMarcus Aldridge	98	103	0.47	0.03	0.43	0.26	7	0	7	15.8	15.3	0.50	13.1	12.4	0.75
Derrick White	97	100	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.33	2	5	-3	16.1	14.0	2.03	13.2	12.3	0.83
DeMar DeRozan	100	104	0.25	0.25	0.00	0.31	-2	9	-11	15.9	14.7	1.21	13.2	12.1	1.07
Patty Mills	61	67	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.06	1	6	-5	15.2	16.2	-1.06	12.7	13.4	-0.71
Jakob Poeltl	17	17	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.08	-2	9	-11	15.8	15.7	0.15	13.1	13.0	0.14
Dante Cunningham	0	1	0.01	0.49	-0.49	0.01	0	7	-7	0.0	15.7	-15.70	3.0	13.1	-10.08
Pau Gasol	34	33	-0.06	0.56	-0.61	0.06	-4	11	-15	15.2	15.9	-0.65	13.0	13.0	0.04
Marco Belinelli	51	55	-0.38	0.88	-1.26	-0.44	2	5	-3	14.2	16.8	-2.63	12.2	13.6	-1.37

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.4,0.39,0.45,0.53,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.62,0.73,0.7,0.68,0.73,0.73,0.81,0.82,0.84,0.77,0.8,0.71,0.75,0.78,0.7,0.73,0.72,0.83,0.78,0.79,0.84,0.85,0.86,0.92,0.86,0.87,0.92,0.93,0.86,0.8,0.73,0.74,0.49,0.67,0.68,0.92,0.87,0.92,0.5,0.45,0.54,0.77,0.85,0.46,0.61,0.77,0.9,0.95,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 110, MEM 122	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.59,0.6,0.65,0.68,0.69,0.67,0.64,0.61,0.65,0.64,0.62,0.62,0.58,0.72,0.65,0.68,0.71,0.74,0.83,0.73,0.78,0.84,0.82,0.87,0.89,0.92,0.89,0.83,0.81,0.82,0.88,0.85,0.85,0.9,0.93,0.86,0.84,0.69,0.81,0.73,0.93,0.93,0.94,0.96,0.46,0.48,0.61,0.68,0.72,0.54,0.81,0.89,1,1,1	88.5%
DET 122, MIA 128	0.5,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.61,0.63,0.62,0.67,0.71,0.73,0.73,0.74,0.72,0.76,0.78,0.71,0.71,0.74,0.8,0.83,0.82,0.72,0.8,0.82,0.8,0.81,0.74,0.78,0.81,0.79,0.68,0.55,0.66,0.7,0.7,0.68,0.78,0.81,0.79,0.76,0.77,0.83,0.76,0.78,0.89,0.93,0.86,0.91,0.46,0.54,0.78,0.68,0.58,0.46,0.68,0.72,0.94,1,1	87.2%
UTA 115, HOU 120	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.52,0.54,0.63,0.62,0.67,0.65,0.69,0.66,0.7,0.7,0.66,0.71,0.75,0.75,0.71,0.75,0.73,0.73,0.8,0.85,0.86,0.84,0.9,0.86,0.89,0.83,0.84,0.79,0.8,0.89,0.8,0.9,0.87,0.87,0.78,0.88,0.89,0.91,0.89,0.88,0.9,0.81,0.71,0.85,0.84,0.54,0.55,0.37,0.43,0.58,0.46,0.75,0.78,0.9,1,1	87.1%