NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	122		Excitement	12.8 [6]		MVP	Dan Majerle (MIA): +19.7%
Miami Heat	128		Comeback	1.5 [691]		LVP	Voshon Lenard (MIA): -20.1%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jerry Stackhouse	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,0.2,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	-0.08	0.21	-0.01	13	62%	0.37	6	-0.23	16	75%	0.02
Christian Laettner	0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.03,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.08,0.08,0.02,0.03,0.03	-0.08	0.11	-0.01	15	41%	0.12	1	-0.08	7	71%	0.04
Jerome Williams	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	-0.00	0.01	5	64%	0.02	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Marcus Brown	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	1	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Don Reid	-0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	0.01	1	100%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jud Buechler	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lindsey Hunter	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	0.02	-0.07	-0.01	16	56%	0.02	2	-0.07	2	50%	-0.04
Eric Montross	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	0.01	4	50%	-0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Michael Curry	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	3	50%	-0.00	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.03
Terry Mills	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.08	-0.05	-0.01	4	20%	-0.08	1	-0.04	2	0%	-0.02
Grant Hill	-0.19	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.2,-0.2,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.17,-0.01,0.05,-0.15,-0.23,-0.14,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.05	-0.11	0.03	35	51%	0.18	4	-0.38	11	73%	-0.05

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dan Majerle	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.07	0.14	0.01	9	65%	0.20	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Mark Strickland	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.02	0.05	-0.00	3	67%	0.07	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.00
Jamal Mashburn	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.04	0.01	15	58%	0.08	1	-0.01	6	67%	-0.02
Tim Hardaway	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.12,0.09,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.01,0,-0.02,0.17,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.41,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	-0.02	-0.02	24	55%	0.05	2	-0.03	10	90%	0.10
Rodney Buford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rex Walters	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
P.J. Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05	-0.05	-0.07	-0.01	-0.03	7	50%	-0.02	3	-0.03	4	75%	-0.02
Anthony Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	-0.02	-0.02	6	17%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.12	-0.04	-0.02	12	45%	-0.02	4	-0.11	7	57%	-0.01
Clar. Weatherspoon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.16,-0.28,-0.28,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.08	-0.09	0.00	14	44%	-0.13	2	-0.04	6	83%	0.04
Voshon Lenard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.20	-0.13	-0.09	-0.02	14	37%	-0.17	1	-0.04	10	70%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1		OT2	Total
this game	31.6	2.4	31.4	15.4	28.5	2.4	48.0	1.7	16.2	1.5	21.3	200.5
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	1.7	18.2	1.7	18.2	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET -65.7%

DET -3.4%

MIA +73.2%

MIA +41.0%

MIA +4.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	MIA	NBA	DET	MIA	NBA
this game	12.0	15.7	15.2	97.6	101.6	101.7
season	14.1	15.7		104.2	101.2
opponent	15.9	15.3		98.2	103.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
DET	14.5	12.2	9.8	11.3	13.8	12.0
MIA	13.7	15.5	17.9	14.9	22.0	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Terry Mills	26	28	0.30	-0.80	1.11	0.22	3	-9	12	10.2	12.5	-2.38	14.6	16.0	-1.37
Lindsey Hunter	85	86	0.13	-0.63	0.77	-0.07	7	-13	20	12.4	11.2	1.27	15.8	15.5	0.26
Jud Buechler	21	22	0.02	-0.52	0.53	0.13	-4	-2	-2	11.4	12.2	-0.73	14.2	16.0	-1.75
Jerry Stackhouse	100	101	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	0.04	-2	-4	2	12.2	11.3	0.90	16.0	14.3	1.69
Eric Montross	29	29	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	-0.05	0	-6	6	12.8	11.8	0.94	16.9	15.3	1.63
Don Reid	18	18	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	0.17	-11	5	-16	12.6	11.9	0.67	15.6	15.7	-0.14
Grant Hill	114	114	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.32	0	-6	6	12.1	11.8	0.24	15.6	16.4	-0.82
Marcus Brown	23	24	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.14	-8	2	-10	11.4	12.2	-0.74	14.2	16.0	-1.86
Michael Curry	46	46	-0.58	0.08	-0.65	-0.37	-7	1	-8	11.3	12.5	-1.16	14.5	16.4	-1.88
Christian Laettner	79	77	-0.70	0.20	-0.90	-0.73	1	-7	8	12.4	11.4	0.99	16.5	14.3	2.21
Jerome Williams	75	77	-0.76	0.26	-1.01	-0.49	-9	3	-12	11.8	12.5	-0.70	15.3	16.3	-1.00

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Clar. Weatherspoon	82	79	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.42	5	1	4	15.6	15.7	-0.12	11.8	12.5	-0.76
Mark Strickland	34	32	0.52	-0.02	0.55	0.47	2	4	-2	14.1	16.2	-2.13	11.2	12.3	-1.15
Voshon Lenard	84	82	0.47	0.03	0.45	0.30	6	0	6	15.3	16.3	-0.99	11.7	12.6	-0.86
Alonzo Mourning	73	74	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.11	10	-4	14	16.2	15.0	1.16	12.5	11.4	1.13
P.J. Brown	64	64	0.39	0.11	0.29	0.16	8	-2	10	15.1	16.3	-1.18	12.1	12.0	0.08
Tim Hardaway	99	99	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.22	5	1	4	15.7	15.7	-0.04	12.1	11.8	0.34
Anthony Carter	27	26	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.10	1	5	-4	15.7	15.7	0.04	11.8	12.1	-0.34
Rodney Buford	10	9	-0.01	0.51	-0.53	0.05	-2	8	-10	16.4	15.6	0.79	12.6	12.0	0.56
Dan Majerle	66	68	-0.10	0.60	-0.69	-0.16	2	4	-2	15.6	15.7	-0.08	12.4	11.6	0.82
Rex Walters	0	1	-0.12	0.62	-0.73	-0.12	0	6	-6	0.0	15.7	-15.67	0.0	12.1	-12.14
Jamal Mashburn	83	82	-0.14	0.64	-0.79	0.06	-7	13	-20	16.0	15.0	1.06	12.1	12.0	0.13

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.61,0.63,0.62,0.67,0.71,0.73,0.73,0.74,0.72,0.76,0.78,0.71,0.71,0.74,0.8,0.83,0.82,0.72,0.8,0.82,0.8,0.81,0.74,0.78,0.81,0.79,0.68,0.55,0.66,0.7,0.7,0.68,0.78,0.81,0.79,0.76,0.77,0.83,0.76,0.78,0.89,0.93,0.86,0.91,0.46,0.54,0.78,0.68,0.58,0.46,0.68,0.72,0.94,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 110, MEM 122	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.59,0.6,0.65,0.68,0.69,0.67,0.64,0.61,0.65,0.64,0.62,0.62,0.58,0.72,0.65,0.68,0.71,0.74,0.83,0.73,0.78,0.84,0.82,0.87,0.89,0.92,0.89,0.83,0.81,0.82,0.88,0.85,0.85,0.9,0.93,0.86,0.84,0.69,0.81,0.73,0.93,0.93,0.94,0.96,0.46,0.48,0.61,0.68,0.72,0.54,0.81,0.89,1,1,1	89.8%
LAL 96, POR 108	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.61,0.62,0.65,0.69,0.72,0.75,0.77,0.79,0.75,0.76,0.69,0.75,0.77,0.71,0.75,0.79,0.82,0.74,0.72,0.8,0.86,0.86,0.82,0.82,0.78,0.78,0.74,0.68,0.72,0.76,0.83,0.9,0.81,0.84,0.91,0.95,0.91,0.9,0.97,0.95,0.96,0.98,1,1	89.4%
UTA 115, HOU 120	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.52,0.54,0.63,0.62,0.67,0.65,0.69,0.66,0.7,0.7,0.66,0.71,0.75,0.75,0.71,0.75,0.73,0.73,0.8,0.85,0.86,0.84,0.9,0.86,0.89,0.83,0.84,0.79,0.8,0.89,0.8,0.9,0.87,0.87,0.78,0.88,0.89,0.91,0.89,0.88,0.9,0.81,0.71,0.85,0.84,0.54,0.55,0.37,0.43,0.58,0.46,0.75,0.78,0.9,1,1	89.1%