NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	104		Excitement	4.0 [1056]		MVP	Trevor Ariza (HOU): +17.8%
Dallas Mavericks	97		Comeback	1.2 [1061]		LVP	Dennis Smith Jr. (DAL): -13.3%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Trevor Ariza	0.18	0,0,0,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.14	0.02	-0.01	17	62%	0.18	0	0.00	3	67%	0.00
James Harden	0.12	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.17	0.00	0.06	16	74%	0.13	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Clint Capela	0.10	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.01	0.01	8	80%	0.11	2	-0.00	4	50%	-0.01
Eric Gordon	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.08	-0.00	0.00	11	71%	0.07	2	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Ryan Anderson	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.00	0.01	-0.02	6	50%	0.05	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Chris Paul	0.02	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.04	-0.00	-0.07	12	43%	0.04	2	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00
Gerald Green	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.05	0.00	-0.05	2	0%	0.00	0	0.00	2	0%	0.00
PJ Tucker	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tarik Black	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	12%	-0.02	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.01
Luc Mbah a Moute	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	0.00	-0.01	7	21%	-0.06	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Yogi Ferrell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.17	0.01	0.07	9	90%	0.14	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.01
Wesley Matthews	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.19	-0.01	0.10	18	76%	0.13	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.00
Maxi Kleber	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.01	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	7	44%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Johnathan Motley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.04	0.00	0.04	2	83%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Kyle Collinsworth	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	0.00	0.01	2	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Harrison Barnes	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	12	42%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Salah Mejri	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	0.02	6	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
J.J. Barea	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.11	0.01	-0.06	9	17%	-0.04	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Powell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.11	-0.00	-0.04	4	20%	-0.05	3	-0.03	2	0%	-0.02
Dennis Smith Jr.	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.09	-0.05	-0.00	11	41%	-0.02	4	-0.11	5	80%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	3.0	23.2	14.6	27.3	3.4	28.7	125.4
league avg	25.1	2.3	28.6	15.0	27.2	2.3	32.6	134.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +30.5%

HOU +0.0%

HOU +3.3%

HOU +15.7%

HOU +0.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	DAL	NBA	HOU	DAL	NBA
this game	15.7	14.8	14.7	109.5	103.2	107.5
season	14.6	15.4		112.8	105.3
opponent	14.3	14.8		108.1	105.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	14.8	21.5	13.3	14.4	15.7
DAL	15.8	15.3	14.9	13.3	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
James Harden	62	61	0.60	-0.10	0.70	-0.28	30	-23	53	15.8	15.5	0.23	15.9	12.6	3.30
Clint Capela	66	66	0.51	-0.01	0.53	-0.19	24	-17	41	14.9	17.4	-2.47	15.5	13.0	2.58
Trevor Ariza	64	64	0.47	0.03	0.43	0.12	12	-5	17	15.0	17.2	-2.22	14.7	15.0	-0.38
Ryan Anderson	50	49	0.38	0.12	0.26	-0.21	20	-13	33	15.1	16.4	-1.30	15.4	14.1	1.23
Chris Paul	60	58	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.15	7	0	7	16.4	14.5	1.96	13.9	16.1	-2.21
PJ Tucker	35	36	0.15	0.35	-0.21	0.09	2	5	-3	17.0	14.9	2.02	15.8	14.1	1.67
Eric Gordon	59	58	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.37	-9	16	-25	16.2	14.9	1.30	15.2	14.1	1.08
Gerald Green	10	10	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.38	-13	20	-33	14.3	15.9	-1.56	9.9	15.4	-5.46
Tarik Black	25	24	-0.01	0.51	-0.53	0.48	-17	24	-41	15.3	15.8	-0.56	12.8	15.5	-2.67
Luc Mbah a Moute	44	44	-0.05	0.55	-0.59	0.57	-21	28	-49	16.4	15.1	1.25	13.5	15.9	-2.49

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
J.J. Barea	47	49	0.04	-0.54	0.58	-0.13	6	-13	19	15.5	14.1	1.38	17.4	13.9	3.54
Johnathan Motley	6	6	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.26	9	-16	25	8.3	15.2	-6.88	13.7	15.8	-2.16
Kyle Collinsworth	30	31	-0.01	-0.49	0.47	-0.40	13	-20	33	13.7	15.3	-1.58	15.4	15.8	-0.41
Dwight Powell	44	45	-0.02	-0.48	0.47	-0.19	6	-13	19	15.0	14.5	0.51	17.2	14.3	2.86
Salah Mejri	29	28	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	-0.03	-5	-2	-3	15.7	14.4	1.32	14.5	16.2	-1.74
Maxi Kleber	20	21	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.14	-4	-3	-1	11.8	15.6	-3.72	13.5	16.3	-2.79
Yogi Ferrell	66	65	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.53	8	-15	23	14.5	15.5	-0.98	15.2	16.7	-1.52
Dirk Nowitzki	30	32	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	0.11	-16	9	-25	14.4	14.9	-0.50	15.2	16.0	-0.76
Harrison Barnes	64	64	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	0.12	-20	13	-33	15.3	13.7	1.58	15.8	15.4	0.41
Wesley Matthews	73	73	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	0.03	-17	10	-27	15.5	12.4	3.02	15.8	15.4	0.43
Dennis Smith Jr.	61	61	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	-0.06	-15	8	-23	14.9	14.6	0.31	15.4	16.3	-0.89

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.4,0.36,0.33,0.29,0.3,0.32,0.29,0.25,0.31,0.32,0.3,0.28,0.34,0.36,0.38,0.31,0.3,0.25,0.26,0.33,0.28,0.27,0.33,0.31,0.31,0.36,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.09,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.06,0.02,0.01,0.06,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 116, NYK 88	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.41,0.42,0.37,0.36,0.38,0.27,0.31,0.31,0.24,0.27,0.35,0.32,0.3,0.36,0.38,0.29,0.3,0.3,0.29,0.23,0.27,0.22,0.22,0.26,0.31,0.33,0.24,0.21,0.13,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.0%
MIA 110, ORL 100	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.43,0.39,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.33,0.3,0.31,0.34,0.32,0.34,0.34,0.27,0.27,0.28,0.28,0.31,0.29,0.28,0.27,0.27,0.33,0.32,0.25,0.25,0.22,0.21,0.21,0.13,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0,0	95.4%
NJN 94, NYK 90	0.5,0.49,0.44,0.42,0.42,0.36,0.38,0.32,0.24,0.26,0.24,0.26,0.25,0.3,0.28,0.29,0.32,0.31,0.29,0.25,0.34,0.36,0.33,0.31,0.3,0.25,0.24,0.21,0.27,0.19,0.24,0.18,0.1,0.14,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0	95.1%