NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	110		Excitement	3.8 [1068]		MVP	Gary Payton (MIA): +7.0%
Orlando Magic	100		Comeback	1.0 [636]		LVP	Steve Francis (ORL): -11.4%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gary Payton	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07	0.11	0.00	0.05	8	81%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antoine Walker	0.06	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.10	0.01	0.06	17	76%	0.14	5	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0.05	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.01	-0.01	10	52%	0.05	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Dwyane Wade	0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.11	0.00	0.08	19	63%	0.12	5	-0.08	19	84%	0.01
Alonzo Mourning	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	2	83%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.00
Shandon Anderson	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jason Kapono	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	2	100%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jason Williams	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	-0.00	-0.02	7	36%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Michael Doleac	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Shaquille O'Neal	-0.09	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.10	-0.01	-0.03	8	33%	-0.04	3	-0.05	5	20%	-0.05

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tony Battie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.09	0.00	0.04	11	67%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	-0.00
Pat Garrity	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.06	0.01	0.04	1	100%	0.03	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Stacey Augmon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	1	100%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keyon Dooling	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.05	0.00	0.07	6	65%	0.01	1	-0.02	5	100%	0.01
Mario Kasun	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	5	20%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Grant Hill	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	0.01	5	44%	-0.02	0	0.00	6	83%	0.00
Dwight Howard	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.05	-0.01	0.08	3	67%	-0.00	2	-0.05	18	78%	-0.01
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,0,0.02,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.01	0.02	12	48%	-0.04	3	-0.04	5	60%	-0.02
DeShawn Stevenson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.05	-0.02	0.03	15	47%	-0.05	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Steve Francis	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.13	-0.02	-0.03	15	32%	-0.08	3	-0.04	7	86%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.0	2.6	33.4	16.3	30.5	2.6	36.3	146.7
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +61.0%

ORL -9.8%

MIA +7.6%

ORL -10.2%

MIA +1.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	ORL	NBA	MIA	ORL	NBA
this game	15.1	15.6	15.6	117.0	106.4	104.4
season	15.5	16.4		106.1	104.4
opponent	15.7	15.5		105.9	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	16.8	14.8	12.5	16.0	15.1
ORL	14.5	14.6	20.3	13.3	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Udonis Haslem	66	67	0.55	-0.05	0.59	0.05	17	-7	24	14.3	17.0	-2.69	16.0	14.4	1.62
Jason Williams	71	73	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.20	10	0	10	15.9	12.4	3.49	15.7	15.2	0.42
Dwyane Wade	78	79	0.47	0.03	0.43	-0.18	22	-12	34	14.2	19.2	-5.03	16.2	12.3	3.84
Shaquille O'Neal	58	59	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.15	10	0	10	15.8	13.9	1.83	16.4	14.1	2.26
Antoine Walker	70	68	0.29	0.21	0.07	0.08	7	3	4	15.9	12.5	3.40	15.6	15.5	0.04
Alonzo Mourning	32	32	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.05	4	6	-2	13.5	15.9	-2.39	14.8	16.0	-1.14
Shandon Anderson	25	25	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.10	2	8	-6	12.4	16.0	-3.64	15.7	15.5	0.21
Gary Payton	46	44	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.22	-4	14	-18	15.0	15.1	-0.15	14.5	16.5	-1.91
Jason Kapono	21	20	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.36	-14	24	-38	18.0	14.2	3.77	13.2	16.2	-2.94
Michael Doleac	3	3	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	0.01	-4	14	-18	20.7	14.9	5.78	7.0	15.8	-8.85

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Pat Garrity	27	27	0.05	-0.55	0.59	-0.19	8	-18	26	15.1	15.7	-0.58	14.6	15.3	-0.73
Stacey Augmon	6	5	0.04	-0.54	0.57	0.01	1	-11	12	13.3	15.7	-2.38	13.0	15.2	-2.19
Keyon Dooling	37	36	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.19	5	-15	20	13.8	16.7	-2.89	14.1	15.7	-1.56
Grant Hill	28	28	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	0.06	-5	-5	0	15.7	15.5	0.21	14.0	15.5	-1.53
Mario Kasun	25	24	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	0.09	-10	0	-10	16.4	15.2	1.19	13.3	15.7	-2.39
Tony Battie	64	63	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.20	-4	-6	2	15.1	16.5	-1.37	16.1	13.0	3.10
DeShawn Stevenson	66	66	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.27	-5	-5	0	15.5	15.7	-0.21	15.5	14.0	1.53
Steve Francis	72	74	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.31	-5	-5	0	15.6	15.3	0.32	15.8	12.4	3.33
Dwight Howard	72	74	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.12	-14	4	-18	15.8	14.8	1.03	15.0	15.4	-0.48
Hedo Turkoglu	73	73	-0.54	0.04	-0.57	0.08	-21	11	-32	16.6	12.1	4.47	15.0	15.4	-0.46

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.43,0.39,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.33,0.3,0.31,0.34,0.32,0.34,0.34,0.27,0.27,0.28,0.28,0.31,0.29,0.28,0.27,0.27,0.33,0.32,0.25,0.25,0.22,0.21,0.21,0.13,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
NJN 94, BOS 76	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.44,0.46,0.4,0.42,0.37,0.3,0.29,0.3,0.32,0.3,0.28,0.25,0.27,0.22,0.32,0.34,0.36,0.29,0.28,0.3,0.27,0.29,0.18,0.13,0.17,0.21,0.13,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.2%
NYK 113, BKN 83	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.44,0.39,0.34,0.31,0.28,0.28,0.24,0.29,0.35,0.34,0.34,0.29,0.29,0.33,0.28,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.39,0.3,0.3,0.34,0.31,0.28,0.19,0.24,0.16,0.1,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.2%
WAS 95, CHH 77	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.43,0.4,0.4,0.32,0.33,0.35,0.35,0.29,0.28,0.28,0.29,0.21,0.23,0.23,0.3,0.27,0.29,0.3,0.31,0.27,0.25,0.3,0.28,0.31,0.33,0.24,0.18,0.13,0.08,0.09,0.08,0.11,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.1%