NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Portland Trail Blazers	110		Excitement	9.8 [77]		MVP	Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL): +75.1%
Milwaukee Bucks	113		Comeback	3.7 [377]		LVP	Jusuf Nurkic (POR): -19.6%

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Damian Lillard	0.20	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.2,0.2	0.03	0.17	0.00	14	65%	0.52	6	-0.32	12	92%	0.12
Ed Davis	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.04	0.06	0.00	1	100%	0.12	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.03
Shabazz Napier	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.00	0.04	0.00	2	50%	0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Evan Turner	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.02	-0.00	7	61%	0.06	2	-0.07	4	100%	0.04
CJ McCollum	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,-0.01	0.10	-0.11	0.00	18	63%	0.15	2	-0.16	5	100%	0.03
Maurice Harkless	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.1,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.04	-0.05	0.00	10	59%	0.02	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.02
Al-Farouq Aminu	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	0.00	0.01	7	31%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Pat Connaughton	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.05	-0.04	-0.00	4	37%	-0.01	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Jusuf Nurkic	-0.20	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.2	-0.04	-0.15	0.00	17	45%	-0.13	2	-0.06	4	75%	-0.00

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Giannis Antetokounmpo	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.26,0.26,0.31,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.45,0.46,0.57,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.75	0.75	0.30	0.44	-0.01	23	75%	0.81	2	-0.06	13	69%	-0.27
Tony Snell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.24	0.14	0.10	0.00	8	106%	0.29	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Mirza Teletovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.10	0.02	0.00	4	112%	0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Terry	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
John Henson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	5	58%	0.04	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.02
Greg Monroe	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeAndre Liggins	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Thon Maker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	0.00	3	30%	-0.02	2	-0.07	4	75%	0.01
Matthew Dellavedova	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.08	-0.02	-0.00	5	18%	-0.05	1	-0.04	1	0%	-0.02
Malcolm Brogdon	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.01,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	14	41%	-0.06	2	-0.05	4	75%	-0.00
Khris Middleton	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.07,-0.17	-0.17	0.03	-0.17	0.03	13	56%	-0.11	2	-0.06	6	100%	0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.0	2.5	29.4	14.8	28.8	2.5	34.4	139.4
league avg	25.1	2.3	28.6	15.0	27.2	2.3	32.6	134.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +61.7%

POR -43.3%

POR -8.7%

MIL +35.9%

MIL +4.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	POR	MIL	NBA	POR	MIL	NBA
this game	16.1	13.4	14.7	111.1	117.7	107.5
season	15.2	14.3		107.8	108.5
opponent	15.4	14.3		108.9	105.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
POR	15.5	16.4	18.4	14.4	16.1
MIL	13.2	12.9	13.5	13.8	13.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ed Davis	29	29	0.03	-0.53	0.55	-0.09	4	-7	11	17.9	15.4	2.56	13.9	13.1	0.80
Al-Farouq Aminu	52	50	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	0.01	-1	-2	1	16.1	16.1	-0.01	14.2	12.5	1.76
Maurice Harkless	80	75	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.16	1	-4	5	15.7	17.8	-2.06	13.4	13.4	-0.07
Shabazz Napier	11	11	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.10	-2	-1	-1	20.9	15.5	5.39	12.5	13.5	-1.04
Pat Connaughton	36	35	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.18	-2	-1	-1	17.9	15.1	2.73	12.5	13.9	-1.44
CJ McCollum	78	76	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.39	1	-4	5	14.8	21.0	-6.25	13.9	11.4	2.49
Jusuf Nurkic	70	67	-0.53	0.03	-0.55	-0.32	-7	4	-11	15.4	17.9	-2.56	13.1	13.9	-0.80
Evan Turner	66	66	-0.53	0.03	-0.57	-0.42	-4	1	-5	16.6	15.2	1.45	13.0	14.3	-1.35
Damian Lillard	73	71	-0.56	0.06	-0.63	-0.42	-5	2	-7	16.0	16.6	-0.62	13.2	13.8	-0.57

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
John Henson	50	48	0.75	-0.25	1.00	0.43	11	-8	19	12.8	14.0	-1.24	16.9	15.4	1.42
DeAndre Liggins	37	36	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.25	10	-7	17	13.9	13.0	0.93	16.8	15.7	1.08
Giannis Antetokounmpo	78	80	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.41	3	0	3	13.3	13.6	-0.22	16.2	15.6	0.61
Malcolm Brogdon	63	66	0.45	0.05	0.39	0.30	5	-2	7	13.4	13.3	0.11	15.4	17.6	-2.18
Tony Snell	70	73	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.37	-3	6	-9	13.5	13.2	0.30	15.2	18.7	-3.49
Mirza Teletovic	35	36	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.09	3	0	3	13.2	13.5	-0.32	15.6	16.4	-0.80
Khris Middleton	59	62	0.10	0.40	-0.29	0.07	1	2	-1	12.9	14.1	-1.19	16.9	14.8	2.09
Matthew Dellavedova	30	31	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.10	-1	4	-5	13.0	13.5	-0.50	17.9	15.3	2.59
Greg Monroe	14	15	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.02	-3	6	-9	13.1	13.4	-0.36	14.7	16.4	-1.64
Jason Terry	9	10	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	0.04	-5	8	-13	14.6	13.3	1.30	16.4	16.1	0.31
Thon Maker	35	38	-0.20	0.70	-0.90	-0.02	-6	9	-15	14.6	12.7	1.88	15.6	16.5	-0.92

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.56,0.55,0.5,0.5,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.38,0.38,0.34,0.31,0.39,0.44,0.47,0.46,0.51,0.67,0.67,0.63,0.58,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.52,0.44,0.4,0.52,0.66,0.7,0.7,0.76,0.68,0.64,0.71,0.65,0.92,0.93,0.86,0.58,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 79, ATL 81	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.64,0.6,0.61,0.55,0.51,0.57,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.37,0.34,0.38,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.41,0.44,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.58,0.69,0.6,0.58,0.55,0.48,0.42,0.45,0.41,0.37,0.4,0.52,0.5,0.62,0.66,0.75,0.77,0.74,0.76,0.67,0.8,0.93,0.77,0.74,1	91.9%
PHX 110, SAS 113	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.56,0.54,0.5,0.56,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.47,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.42,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.44,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.54,0.46,0.43,0.43,0.45,0.48,0.58,0.65,0.6,0.44,0.56,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.66,0.57,0.67,0.72,0.78,0.8,0.78,0.81,0.96,0.94,0.85,1	90.6%
IND 77, CLE 86	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.4,0.34,0.37,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.4,0.36,0.44,0.52,0.46,0.44,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.52,0.64,0.55,0.52,0.45,0.41,0.37,0.48,0.44,0.66,0.66,0.69,0.72,0.68,0.74,0.85,0.78,0.75,0.89,0.84,0.96,1	90.6%