NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	79		Excitement	7.7 [292]		MVP	Marvin Williams (ATL): +18.4%
Atlanta Hawks	81		Comeback	2.4 [892]		LVP	Chris Quinn (MIA): -51.4%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mario Chalmers	0.18	0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.12	0.06	-0.00	10	75%	0.18	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Beasley	0.10	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.06	0.05	0.01	15	68%	0.20	4	-0.11	4	100%	0.03
Jamaal Magloire	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.04	0.03	-0.00	4	75%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joel Anthony	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	1	50%	0.00	1	-0.04	4	25%	-0.04
Yakhouba Diawara	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.00	6	17%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dorell Wright	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.11	-0.05	-0.06	-0.00	6	50%	-0.02	3	-0.09	2	50%	-0.03
Daequan Cook	-0.15	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15,-0.19,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	12	29%	-0.11	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Mark Blount	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,0.02,-0.07,-0.17	0.01	-0.14	0.04	5	60%	-0.10	1	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
James Jones	-0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.18	-0.01	-0.17	0.00	10	45%	-0.14	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Chris Quinn	-0.51	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.25,-0.31,-0.31,-0.4,-0.51	-0.24	-0.27	-0.00	9	0%	-0.34	4	-0.17	2	0%	-0.03

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Marvin Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.12	0.07	0.00	4	108%	0.21	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.04
Othello Hunter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.09,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.03	0.04	0.00	6	62%	0.13	1	-0.06	1	0%	-0.03
Josh Smith	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.02	0.00	4	73%	0.09	1	-0.03	3	67%	0.00
Joe Johnson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.02	-0.01	7	64%	0.09	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Mike Bibby	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	5	50%	0.03	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Randolph Morris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mario West	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.01	3	37%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Al Horford	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	8	50%	0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Speedy Claxton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	2	17%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Ronald Murray	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.13,-0.08	-0.08	-0.10	0.02	0.01	20	35%	-0.06	1	-0.02	8	75%	0.01
Solomon Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.07	-0.04	-0.00	3	40%	0.01	3	-0.12	4	50%	-0.02
Thomas Gardner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.10	-0.05	-0.00	7	19%	-0.11	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.3	2.5	27.2	16.7	24.2	2.6	34.6	135.2
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +52.7%

ATL +13.2%

MIA -39.1%

ATL +22.6%

ATL +0.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	ATL	NBA	MIA	ATL	NBA
this game	17.5	16.0	15.5	91.9	94.2	106.4
season	16.0	15.8		105.9	106.7
opponent	16.1	15.7		106.0	105.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	17.0	16.8	17.7	18.7	17.5
ATL	16.5	15.1	17.4	14.9	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Michael Beasley	42	42	0.15	-0.65	0.80	-0.05	7	-9	16	17.3	17.7	-0.42	17.0	15.0	1.98
Mario Chalmers	34	34	0.05	-0.55	0.60	-0.04	3	-5	8	17.1	17.8	-0.72	17.2	15.2	2.00
Jamaal Magloire	36	37	0.03	-0.53	0.56	0.00	1	-3	4	17.9	17.2	0.68	17.1	15.1	2.01
Daequan Cook	59	61	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	-0.14	2	-4	6	17.3	18.0	-0.69	17.4	12.4	5.08
Mark Blount	13	13	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.33	3	-5	8	17.8	17.5	0.38	11.8	16.7	-4.94
Yakhouba Diawara	55	54	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	0.08	-12	10	-22	17.8	17.1	0.72	16.2	15.5	0.74
James Jones	45	44	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.49	3	-5	8	17.4	17.7	-0.26	14.8	17.2	-2.35
Joel Anthony	50	49	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.44	-3	1	-4	17.2	17.9	-0.68	15.1	17.1	-2.01
Chris Quinn	52	52	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.40	-5	3	-8	17.8	17.1	0.72	15.2	17.2	-2.00
Dorell Wright	44	44	-0.65	0.15	-0.80	-0.39	-9	7	-16	17.7	17.3	0.42	15.0	17.0	-1.98

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Othello Hunter	41	40	0.84	-0.34	1.17	0.43	14	-12	26	15.0	16.8	-1.75	18.7	16.5	2.15
Ronald Murray	63	63	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.46	5	-3	8	15.8	16.3	-0.52	18.1	15.9	2.20
Thomas Gardner	39	40	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.29	8	-6	14	14.5	17.1	-2.61	17.8	17.3	0.47
Solomon Jones	53	52	0.51	-0.01	0.53	0.48	1	1	0	16.2	15.7	0.48	17.7	17.2	0.48
Speedy Claxton	12	11	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.10	6	-4	10	16.3	15.9	0.43	19.0	17.3	1.69
Mario West	72	72	0.17	0.33	-0.17	0.34	-6	8	-14	15.9	16.3	-0.38	17.1	19.9	-2.87
Marvin Williams	27	29	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.10	2	0	2	15.8	16.1	-0.27	17.6	17.5	0.04
Randolph Morris	15	16	-0.05	0.55	-0.61	0.00	-2	4	-6	15.3	16.1	-0.77	18.2	17.4	0.89
Joe Johnson	26	26	-0.08	0.58	-0.67	-0.03	-2	4	-6	17.3	15.4	1.87	16.3	18.0	-1.69
Josh Smith	24	24	-0.13	0.63	-0.77	0.01	-5	7	-12	16.1	15.9	0.16	16.0	18.1	-2.06
Al Horford	33	33	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	-0.02	-4	6	-10	17.5	15.0	2.52	17.6	17.5	0.18
Mike Bibby	25	24	-0.17	0.67	-0.83	0.04	-7	9	-16	16.7	15.7	1.06	16.0	18.1	-2.06

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.64,0.6,0.61,0.55,0.51,0.57,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.37,0.34,0.38,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.41,0.44,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.58,0.69,0.6,0.58,0.55,0.48,0.42,0.45,0.41,0.37,0.4,0.52,0.5,0.62,0.66,0.75,0.77,0.74,0.76,0.67,0.8,0.93,0.77,0.74,1
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 79, MIL 83	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.55,0.56,0.52,0.57,0.61,0.6,0.57,0.54,0.49,0.46,0.47,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.39,0.48,0.56,0.61,0.59,0.67,0.66,0.6,0.67,0.53,0.55,0.52,0.41,0.35,0.44,0.4,0.52,0.54,0.74,0.66,0.67,0.73,0.74,0.76,0.67,0.75,0.72,0.89,0.98,1	92.8%
MEM 90, PHX 96	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.55,0.56,0.58,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.48,0.43,0.4,0.4,0.47,0.49,0.44,0.44,0.54,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.5,0.52,0.57,0.55,0.48,0.48,0.42,0.48,0.38,0.37,0.44,0.49,0.54,0.66,0.75,0.75,0.7,0.69,0.65,0.69,0.89,0.95,0.95,0.98,1	92.7%
POR 110, MIL 113	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.56,0.55,0.5,0.5,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.38,0.38,0.34,0.31,0.39,0.44,0.47,0.46,0.51,0.67,0.67,0.63,0.58,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.52,0.44,0.4,0.52,0.66,0.7,0.7,0.76,0.68,0.64,0.71,0.65,0.92,0.93,0.86,0.58,1	91.9%