NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	79		Excitement	7.1 [426]		MVP	Michael Redd (MIL): +13.7%
Milwaukee Bucks	83		Comeback	1.9 [815]		LVP	Raef LaFrentz (BOS): -20.8%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Wally Szczerbiak	0.13	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.13	0.09	0.05	0.01	15	59%	0.13	0	0.00	4	100%	0.05
Brian Scalabrine	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03	-0.04	0.03	-0.03	7	37%	0.05	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.03
Delonte West	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	10	45%	0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Paul Pierce	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.01	0.01	18	47%	0.04	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.02
Orien Greene	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Kendrick Perkins	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	7	50%	-0.01	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Al Jefferson	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.02	-0.05	-0.00	10	50%	0.00	2	-0.07	4	50%	-0.03
Tony Allen	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	0.00	2	0%	-0.08	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Raef LaFrentz	-0.21	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.15,-0.15,-0.2,-0.21	-0.12	-0.10	-0.01	8	33%	-0.05	4	-0.16	2	100%	0.01

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Redd	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.12,0.14	0.14	0.01	0.13	0.01	17	51%	0.19	2	-0.05	7	100%	0.04
Bobby Simmons	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08	0.08	-0.00	0.08	-0.01	10	55%	0.12	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Dan Gadzuric	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.01	0.05	0.00	7	47%	0.06	0	0.00	3	67%	0.03
Charlie Bell	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	8	67%	0.11	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Jiri Welsch	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
T.J. Ford	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02	-0.02	-0.10	0.05	-0.02	18	39%	0.05	3	-0.07	2	0%	-0.01
Toni Kukoc	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamaal Magloire	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.03	-0.05	-0.00	6	50%	-0.01	2	-0.07	8	50%	-0.12
Andrew Bogut	0,0,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.08	-0.09	-0.00	7	29%	-0.11	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.8	2.4	30.2	15.5	25.4	2.3	32.3	130.0
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +32.9%

BOS -6.0%

MIL +8.6%

MIL +7.5%

MIL +7.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	MIL	NBA	BOS	MIL	NBA
this game	15.0	17.0	15.6	86.8	93.3	104.4
season	14.8	15.5		103.3	104.6
opponent	15.5	15.8		106.0	104.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	14.5	13.9	14.1	17.7	15.0
MIL	16.8	15.5	19.5	16.6	17.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kendrick Perkins	47	49	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	-0.17	3	-7	10	15.3	14.6	0.66	17.0	17.1	-0.05
Brian Scalabrine	31	28	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.13	0	-4	4	13.3	15.8	-2.56	16.3	17.4	-1.06
Tony Allen	30	28	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.15	-1	-3	2	15.5	14.7	0.73	17.5	16.8	0.72
Delonte West	68	66	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.27	3	-7	10	14.8	15.5	-0.73	17.2	16.7	0.53
Orien Greene	23	23	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.11	-7	3	-10	15.5	14.8	0.73	16.7	17.2	-0.53
Al Jefferson	44	41	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.19	-5	1	-6	15.5	14.5	1.05	17.9	16.3	1.59
Wally Szczerbiak	76	75	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.36	-1	-3	2	15.1	14.1	1.01	17.6	14.2	3.36
Paul Pierce	76	75	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.25	-6	2	-8	14.6	16.8	-2.18	16.3	20.9	-4.52
Raef LaFrentz	60	60	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.28	-6	2	-8	15.2	14.5	0.65	16.8	17.5	-0.70

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Andrew Bogut	67	67	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.32	7	-3	10	16.8	17.7	-0.85	15.3	14.1	1.22
T.J. Ford	78	82	0.52	-0.02	0.53	0.31	7	-3	10	17.2	15.7	1.50	15.2	13.2	1.95
Bobby Simmons	61	61	0.48	0.02	0.47	0.28	7	-3	10	16.6	17.9	-1.29	14.9	15.1	-0.13
Jamaal Magloire	62	61	0.42	0.08	0.35	0.25	6	-2	8	17.3	16.5	0.76	15.0	14.9	0.07
Michael Redd	61	61	0.32	0.18	0.15	0.29	1	3	-2	17.3	16.4	0.90	14.7	15.5	-0.73
Charlie Bell	53	55	0.31	0.19	0.13	0.31	0	4	-4	16.1	18.4	-2.26	15.6	14.0	1.62
Dan Gadzuric	33	35	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.10	3	1	2	17.0	17.1	-0.12	16.0	14.4	1.61
Jiri Welsch	16	18	-0.12	0.62	-0.75	-0.01	-4	8	-12	18.1	16.8	1.32	11.9	15.7	-3.78
Toni Kukoc	14	15	-0.15	0.65	-0.81	0.05	-7	11	-18	18.9	16.7	2.24	12.5	15.5	-2.93

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.55,0.56,0.52,0.57,0.61,0.6,0.57,0.54,0.49,0.46,0.47,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.39,0.48,0.56,0.61,0.59,0.67,0.66,0.6,0.67,0.53,0.55,0.52,0.41,0.35,0.44,0.4,0.52,0.54,0.74,0.66,0.67,0.73,0.74,0.76,0.67,0.75,0.72,0.89,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
NJN 74, NYK 82	0.5,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.55,0.61,0.57,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.48,0.44,0.42,0.42,0.46,0.37,0.44,0.48,0.52,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.6,0.57,0.54,0.52,0.67,0.65,0.48,0.52,0.37,0.44,0.44,0.54,0.56,0.63,0.62,0.63,0.69,0.65,0.72,0.61,0.72,0.94,0.99,1	93.1%
LAL 103, NYK 110	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.54,0.53,0.56,0.58,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.62,0.6,0.49,0.43,0.49,0.47,0.38,0.4,0.39,0.37,0.48,0.46,0.44,0.51,0.59,0.58,0.6,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.61,0.52,0.52,0.41,0.48,0.48,0.64,0.58,0.62,0.66,0.57,0.63,0.59,0.65,0.67,0.75,0.84,0.97,0.98,1	92.9%
MIA 79, ATL 81	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.64,0.6,0.61,0.55,0.51,0.57,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.37,0.34,0.38,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.41,0.44,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.58,0.69,0.6,0.58,0.55,0.48,0.42,0.45,0.41,0.37,0.4,0.52,0.5,0.62,0.66,0.75,0.77,0.74,0.76,0.67,0.8,0.93,0.77,0.74,1	92.8%