NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	100		Excitement	6.1 [622]		MVP	Jimmy Butler (CHI): +11.5%
Orlando Magic	92		Comeback	1.9 [719]		LVP	Elfrid Payton (ORL): -29.0%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jimmy Butler	0.12	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.12	0.09	0.04	0.02	14	57%	0.12	0	0.00	7	86%	0.04
Doug McDermott	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.00	0.00	7	86%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.09,0.12,0.11,0.1,0.09,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09	-0.06	0.07	-0.08	23	44%	0.16	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Cristiano Felicio	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.07	0.02	0.01	6	67%	0.08	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.01
Robin Lopez	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.02	0.00	5	80%	0.07	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Rajon Rondo	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jerian Grant	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.00	4	54%	0.06	3	-0.08	5	80%	0.01
Paul Zipser	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	4	50%	0.02	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Nikola Mirotic	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.02	5	33%	-0.03	2	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Taj Gibson	-0.07	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	6	39%	-0.05	1	-0.02	6	50%	-0.03

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Serge Ibaka	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.07	0.01	-0.00	13	59%	0.11	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Damjan Rudez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	0.01	0.00	5	80%	0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Vucevic	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	-0.00	16	54%	0.07	3	-0.05	5	80%	0.00
Aaron Gordon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	12	48%	0.03	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.00
Mario Hezonja	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	3	50%	-0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
CJ Watson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	6	50%	0.00	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Jeff Green	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	11	45%	0.00	2	-0.05	7	100%	0.03
Bismack Biyombo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	3	33%	-0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Elfrid Payton	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.11,-0.15,-0.17,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.24,-0.24,-0.25,-0.27,-0.27,-0.28,-0.28,-0.29	-0.29	-0.26	-0.07	-0.04	16	29%	-0.07	8	-0.22	2	0%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.8	1.7	28.2	15.4	26.4	2.5	31.4	130.4
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +26.7%

CHI +12.0%

ORL -12.5%

CHI +22.1%

CHI +1.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	ORL	NBA	CHI	ORL	NBA
this game	15.0	14.2	14.8	101.0	93.9	107.7
season	15.1	14.6		105.9	103.0
opponent	14.9	14.8		109.8	105.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	15.7	15.1	16.1	13.4	15.0
ORL	14.3	14.3	13.9	14.3	14.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nikola Mirotic	39	40	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.08	18	-10	28	14.1	15.6	-1.51	15.5	13.3	2.16
Cristiano Felicio	43	43	0.52	-0.02	0.53	0.22	10	-2	12	14.1	15.7	-1.59	14.9	13.7	1.23
Doug McDermott	34	36	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.07	15	-7	22	14.0	15.6	-1.54	15.1	13.7	1.36
Dwyane Wade	71	69	0.41	0.09	0.33	0.24	6	2	4	14.9	15.4	-0.54	13.8	15.1	-1.24
Paul Zipser	41	40	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.17	6	2	4	14.5	15.4	-0.94	14.7	13.8	0.90
Jimmy Butler	81	80	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.22	3	5	-2	15.1	14.6	0.59	13.6	16.8	-3.17
Rajon Rondo	29	30	0.13	0.37	-0.24	-0.02	5	3	2	14.4	15.3	-0.84	15.3	13.7	1.64
Robin Lopez	56	55	-0.02	0.52	-0.53	0.04	-2	10	-12	15.7	14.1	1.59	13.7	14.9	-1.23
Taj Gibson	60	58	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	0.18	-10	18	-28	15.6	14.1	1.51	13.3	15.5	-2.16
Jerian Grant	41	39	-0.22	0.72	-0.93	0.11	-11	19	-30	16.9	13.7	3.18	13.8	14.4	-0.62

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mario Hezonja	26	28	0.18	-0.68	0.86	-0.05	8	-16	24	15.6	13.7	1.88	13.4	15.7	-2.35
Nikola Vucevic	67	69	-0.04	-0.46	0.43	-0.21	6	-14	20	13.0	16.7	-3.73	15.6	13.8	1.83
Damjan Rudez	25	25	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.07	-4	-4	0	16.4	13.4	3.02	13.4	15.6	-2.25
Aaron Gordon	74	74	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.22	-2	-6	4	13.4	16.7	-3.27	15.4	13.8	1.61
Serge Ibaka	73	74	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.20	-4	-4	0	13.4	16.4	-3.02	15.6	13.4	2.25
CJ Watson	45	47	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	-0.06	-13	5	-18	14.7	13.7	1.00	15.2	14.9	0.25
Elfrid Payton	78	78	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.23	-8	0	-8	13.5	16.9	-3.46	15.4	13.6	1.80
Bismack Biyombo	31	30	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.05	-14	6	-20	16.7	13.0	3.73	13.8	15.6	-1.83
Jeff Green	71	70	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.24	-9	1	-10	15.0	12.2	2.77	14.8	15.7	-0.92

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.57,0.6,0.57,0.63,0.65,0.6,0.55,0.47,0.54,0.6,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.44,0.44,0.34,0.34,0.44,0.42,0.46,0.4,0.4,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.32,0.32,0.31,0.44,0.4,0.48,0.3,0.3,0.25,0.29,0.19,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
IND 102, DEN 87	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.57,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.49,0.53,0.58,0.56,0.47,0.37,0.34,0.33,0.39,0.39,0.46,0.45,0.37,0.36,0.33,0.36,0.35,0.38,0.44,0.41,0.48,0.52,0.42,0.38,0.25,0.17,0.19,0.14,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.0%
SAC 104, DAL 101	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.63,0.56,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.51,0.41,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.39,0.42,0.33,0.33,0.26,0.28,0.41,0.4,0.4,0.34,0.3,0.15,0.08,0.12,0.1,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0	93.5%
NOK 95, MEM 86	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.65,0.66,0.68,0.62,0.58,0.58,0.63,0.58,0.55,0.5,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.5,0.42,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.45,0.48,0.41,0.44,0.44,0.52,0.52,0.42,0.3,0.22,0.2,0.15,0.06,0.12,0.04,0.07,0.03,0.02,0,0	93.4%