NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	104		Excitement	5.6 [712]		MVP	Chandler Parsons (DAL): +10.2%
Dallas Mavericks	101		Comeback	1.7 [235]		LVP	Dirk Nowitzki (DAL): -17.3%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Darren Collison	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09	0.07	0.01	-0.00	8	70%	0.11	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.00
Omri Casspi	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.05,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.02	0.05	-0.00	8	50%	0.08	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Ben McLemore	0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.01	0.03	-0.02	11	45%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marco Belinelli	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.06	0.08	0.02	0.04	10	67%	0.10	1	-0.04	4	25%	-0.06
Willie Cauley-Stein	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kosta Koufos	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeMarcus Cousins	-0.00	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0	-0.03	-0.01	-0.04	17	52%	0.12	4	-0.13	8	50%	-0.01
Quincy Acy	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	0.00	0.01	2	100%	0.04	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Rajon Rondo	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.00	0.02	14	56%	0.05	3	-0.06	4	50%	-0.00
Rudy Gay	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	8	50%	0.01	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.00

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chandler Parsons	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.16	0.02	0.07	17	76%	0.19	3	-0.09	3	33%	-0.02
Zaza Pachulia	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.03	-0.00	6	50%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Deron Williams	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0	-0.00	0.01	-0.02	-0.01	17	44%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Devin Harris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	7	50%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
David Lee	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.03	0.00	9	67%	0.08	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Jose Juan Barea	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	0.01	-0.03	0.04	7	57%	-0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Raymond Felton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	6	38%	0.00	2	-0.07	1	100%	0.00
Wesley Matthews	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1	-0.10	-0.07	-0.02	0.01	9	22%	-0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.17,-0.17,-0.18,-0.17	-0.17	-0.09	-0.04	0.04	16	47%	-0.07	5	-0.10	2	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.3	2.5	25.2	15.0	23.2	2.5	39.4	130.1
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +45.8%

DAL -2.0%

DAL -8.1%

SAC +9.7%

SAC +4.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	DAL	NBA	SAC	DAL	NBA
this game	14.1	15.5	14.9	107.2	104.1	105.1
season	13.9	15.5		104.8	105.0
opponent	14.7	14.6		106.5	107.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	13.8	14.5	15.3	13.2	14.1
DAL	16.2	15.5	16.0	14.5	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marco Belinelli	50	51	0.50	-0.00	0.51	0.24	9	-6	15	14.1	14.2	-0.05	14.6	16.6	-2.06
Darren Collison	59	58	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.39	1	2	-1	13.9	14.5	-0.63	15.0	16.4	-1.40
Ben McLemore	48	48	0.31	0.19	0.13	0.23	3	0	3	13.6	14.6	-0.99	16.1	15.0	1.10
Kosta Koufos	24	25	0.28	0.21	0.07	0.11	6	-3	9	13.7	14.3	-0.52	14.4	15.9	-1.49
Omri Casspi	41	39	0.27	0.23	0.05	0.16	4	-1	5	14.6	13.8	0.81	14.2	16.4	-2.24
Rajon Rondo	74	76	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.30	-2	5	-7	14.1	14.4	-0.32	16.0	14.0	2.03
DeMarcus Cousins	73	72	0.21	0.28	-0.07	0.30	-3	6	-9	14.3	13.7	0.52	15.9	14.4	1.49
Rudy Gay	71	72	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.27	-4	7	-11	14.4	13.3	1.09	16.1	14.0	2.14
Quincy Acy	31	32	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.02	1	2	-1	14.6	13.9	0.64	17.2	14.8	2.40
Willie Cauley-Stein	14	12	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.04	0	3	-3	13.6	14.2	-0.67	14.2	15.7	-1.57

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
David Lee	37	38	0.14	-0.64	0.77	-0.07	7	-10	17	14.1	16.5	-2.41	14.9	13.6	1.28
Chandler Parsons	77	76	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.37	10	-13	23	15.8	14.5	1.26	14.6	12.4	2.19
Wesley Matthews	72	71	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	-0.31	7	-10	17	16.2	13.6	2.68	14.5	13.1	1.46
Deron Williams	75	74	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.32	6	-9	15	16.0	14.1	1.82	14.4	13.4	0.93
Devin Harris	23	24	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.10	-7	4	-11	15.3	15.6	-0.32	14.1	14.2	-0.08
Raymond Felton	53	52	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.01	-11	8	-19	14.9	16.3	-1.41	13.9	14.5	-0.60
Jose Juan Barea	35	37	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.40	1	-4	5	13.3	16.8	-3.58	13.1	14.8	-1.68
Zaza Pachulia	47	45	-0.62	0.12	-0.74	-0.03	-20	17	-37	17.8	13.5	4.31	14.0	14.3	-0.31
Dirk Nowitzki	66	68	-0.68	0.18	-0.86	-0.44	-8	5	-13	15.1	16.5	-1.43	13.4	15.8	-2.35

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.63,0.56,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.51,0.41,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.39,0.42,0.33,0.33,0.26,0.28,0.41,0.4,0.4,0.34,0.3,0.15,0.08,0.12,0.1,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 97, LAC 88	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.59,0.5,0.45,0.49,0.41,0.4,0.45,0.49,0.54,0.53,0.58,0.53,0.51,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.42,0.48,0.36,0.27,0.35,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.3,0.35,0.32,0.45,0.48,0.4,0.38,0.3,0.26,0.15,0.09,0.05,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0	94.5%
SAS 92, MIN 76	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.46,0.44,0.51,0.56,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.45,0.54,0.58,0.56,0.51,0.44,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.36,0.36,0.33,0.37,0.38,0.34,0.28,0.3,0.33,0.35,0.29,0.34,0.31,0.33,0.32,0.26,0.3,0.22,0.14,0.12,0.1,0.12,0.03,0,0,0,0,0	94.4%
CHI 89, CHA 87	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.43,0.49,0.53,0.47,0.54,0.56,0.53,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.5,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.39,0.45,0.35,0.32,0.34,0.34,0.37,0.44,0.42,0.26,0.25,0.18,0.09,0.1,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0	94.2%