NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Indiana Pacers	102		Excitement	5.8 [635]		MVP	Reggie Miller (IND): +14.4%
Denver Nuggets	87		Comeback	1.5 [700]		LVP	Antonio McDyess (DEN): -14.6%

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Reggie Miller	0.14	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.03	0.02	11	77%	0.14	0	0.00	4	100%	-0.01
Sam Perkins	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.06	0.00	-0.06	9	67%	0.13	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Travis Best	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.11	0.02	0.07	7	83%	0.06	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Rik Smits	0.03	0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0,0.04,-0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.02	-0.00	15	52%	0.06	1	-0.04	3	100%	0.02
Al Harrington	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Austin Croshere	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.06	0.00	-0.06	12	42%	0.00	2	-0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Chris Mullin	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.04	0.00	0.04	1	150%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mark Jackson	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	-0.02	-0.04	6	58%	0.03	3	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Dale Davis	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	5	50%	0.01	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Jalen Rose	-0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.15,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	0.01	-0.01	10	35%	0.01	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
James Posey	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.06	0.05	0.02	7	78%	0.14	1	-0.04	4	75%	-0.01
Raef LaFrentz	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.01	-0.01	14	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Roy Rogers	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Herren	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nick Van Exel	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.07	0.02	-0.02	14	41%	0.05	3	-0.08	1	100%	0.01
Keon Clark	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.02	-0.02	0.03	9	55%	-0.04	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.01
Bryant Stith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ron Mercer	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.11	-0.01	-0.06	10	33%	-0.00	3	-0.05	1	100%	0.01
George McCloud	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.03	-0.01	5	33%	-0.04	1	-0.04	2	0%	-0.03
Antonio McDyess	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.11	-0.04	-0.00	19	45%	-0.06	3	-0.09	9	56%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.9	2.3	24.6	15.5	24.2	2.6	26.4	118.5
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

IND +32.6%

IND +16.3%

DEN -2.7%

IND +7.9%

DEN -4.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	IND	DEN	NBA	IND	DEN	NBA
this game	15.1	16.8	15.2	112.1	96.7	101.7
season	15.4	14.8		106.5	101.5
opponent	15.0	15.1		103.7	101.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
IND	14.1	14.9	15.1	16.2	15.1
DEN	15.2	18.0	17.6	16.5	16.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Mullin	24	25	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.06	17	-2	19	16.2	14.7	1.50	17.0	16.7	0.38
Sam Perkins	51	49	0.53	-0.03	0.57	-0.05	20	-5	25	15.1	15.0	0.12	16.4	17.2	-0.79
Travis Best	30	31	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.05	16	-1	17	16.6	14.3	2.24	18.3	16.0	2.28
Reggie Miller	77	77	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.01	10	5	5	15.2	14.2	1.01	16.6	18.0	-1.44
Dale Davis	30	30	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.07	7	8	-1	13.6	15.8	-2.14	18.3	16.0	2.30
Al Harrington	24	23	0.24	0.26	-0.01	0.01	8	7	1	14.3	15.3	-1.00	16.9	16.7	0.20
Austin Croshere	61	60	0.22	0.28	-0.06	-0.01	8	7	1	15.8	13.6	2.14	16.0	18.3	-2.30
Mark Jackson	61	59	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.01	-1	16	-17	14.3	16.6	-2.24	16.0	18.3	-2.28
Rik Smits	40	41	-0.03	0.53	-0.57	0.11	-5	20	-25	15.0	15.1	-0.12	17.2	16.4	0.79
Jalen Rose	57	55	-0.10	0.60	-0.71	0.04	-5	20	-25	14.7	15.7	-0.97	16.9	16.6	0.27

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Herren	16	17	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	-0.03	1	-16	17	18.2	16.4	1.80	18.2	14.3	3.90
Antonio McDyess	71	74	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.01	-3	-12	9	15.2	22.5	-7.23	14.8	16.1	-1.29
Ron Mercer	70	74	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	-0.01	-5	-10	5	16.0	19.4	-3.45	15.1	14.8	0.37
Roy Rogers	11	9	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	0.01	-6	-9	3	21.4	16.1	5.24	16.3	14.9	1.41
James Posey	60	64	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	-0.09	-3	-12	9	16.3	17.7	-1.45	15.1	14.9	0.20
Keon Clark	58	58	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	0.01	-10	-5	-5	16.7	16.9	-0.22	15.1	15.1	-0.04
George McCloud	30	27	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	0.03	-12	-3	-9	17.7	16.3	1.45	14.9	15.1	-0.20
Bryant Stith	20	17	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.05	-10	-5	-5	19.4	16.0	3.45	14.8	15.1	-0.37
Raef LaFrentz	40	41	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.14	-11	-4	-7	18.3	15.5	2.80	15.2	14.9	0.32
Nick Van Exel	74	74	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	-0.03	-16	1	-17	16.4	18.2	-1.80	14.3	18.2	-3.90

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.57,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.49,0.53,0.58,0.56,0.47,0.37,0.34,0.33,0.39,0.39,0.46,0.45,0.37,0.36,0.33,0.36,0.35,0.38,0.44,0.41,0.48,0.52,0.42,0.38,0.25,0.17,0.19,0.14,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 100, ORL 92	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.57,0.6,0.57,0.63,0.65,0.6,0.55,0.47,0.54,0.6,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.44,0.44,0.34,0.34,0.44,0.42,0.46,0.4,0.4,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.32,0.32,0.31,0.44,0.4,0.48,0.3,0.3,0.25,0.29,0.19,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0	94.0%
MIL 100, ORL 88	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.59,0.56,0.57,0.53,0.59,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.48,0.42,0.46,0.53,0.58,0.6,0.47,0.47,0.48,0.51,0.44,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.42,0.39,0.42,0.27,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.52,0.48,0.38,0.38,0.25,0.29,0.27,0.21,0.11,0.07,0.03,0.01,0.02,0,0	93.8%
DAL 94, POR 84	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.53,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.62,0.64,0.63,0.58,0.54,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.47,0.47,0.46,0.54,0.44,0.54,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.42,0.39,0.33,0.38,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.48,0.44,0.34,0.34,0.22,0.14,0.08,0.11,0.05,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0	93.6%