NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	100		Excitement	5.8 [618]		MVP	Armen Gilliam (MIL): +18.2%
Orlando Magic	88		Comeback	1.8 [394]		LVP	Gerald Wilkins (ORL): -19.8%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Armen Gilliam	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.06,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.05	0.11	-0.02	12	69%	0.23	2	-0.05	11	91%	0.02
Johnny Newman	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.03	0.01	6	56%	0.03	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Ray Allen	0.02	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.00	0.02	0.00	11	50%	0.04	1	-0.02	2	50%	0.00
Joe Wolf	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	4	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sherman Douglas	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.03	7	63%	0.08	3	-0.07	5	40%	-0.03
David Wood	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Darrin Hancock	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Elliot Perry	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Glenn Robinson	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.09,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	0.01	-0.01	18	55%	0.07	4	-0.08	6	83%	0.01
Keith Tower	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	0	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.02
Vin Baker	-0.13	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.11	-0.04	-0.02	18	35%	-0.07	2	-0.06	1	100%	0.00

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Darrell Armstrong	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.04	0.03	-0.04	13	48%	0.11	3	-0.08	1	100%	0.00
Rony Seikaly	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	-0.00	-0.01	7	55%	0.02	0	0.00	6	83%	0.01
Dan Schayes	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derek Strong	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	3	67%	0.06	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
David Vaughn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Horace Grant	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	13	52%	0.01	1	-0.04	5	80%	0.01
Nick Anderson	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.04	-0.04	0.06	23	52%	-0.04	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.03
Brian Shaw	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	-0.00	-0.00	6	41%	-0.05	2	-0.03	5	80%	-0.02
Gerald Wilkins	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.20	-0.15	-0.07	-0.02	12	37%	-0.11	3	-0.09	8	50%	-0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.4	2.3	29.0	15.7	22.3	1.8	37.2	135.7
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +37.5%

MIL +4.9%

MIL +6.4%

MIL +3.1%

ORL -1.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	ORL	NBA	MIL	ORL	NBA
this game	16.1	16.4	15.6	113.6	98.9	104.4
season	16.0	16.4		103.9	102.9
opponent	15.5	15.5		103.5	106.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	15.3	18.5	14.6	16.4	16.1
ORL	15.3	15.8	17.5	17.1	16.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Glenn Robinson	80	80	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.09	15	-3	18	16.4	13.9	2.50	17.0	11.2	5.75
Vin Baker	76	76	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.00	18	-6	24	16.5	14.2	2.29	17.1	12.4	4.69
Sherman Douglas	71	71	0.50	-0.00	0.51	0.07	15	-3	18	16.5	14.7	1.79	17.0	14.0	3.00
Armen Gilliam	65	66	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.10	13	-1	14	16.0	16.6	-0.57	16.2	16.9	-0.64
Johnny Newman	44	44	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.09	7	5	2	17.0	15.3	1.75	16.6	16.2	0.35
Ray Allen	47	48	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.13	3	9	-6	14.3	18.2	-3.88	15.6	17.3	-1.67
Joe Wolf	26	26	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.18	-4	16	-20	14.8	16.7	-1.96	14.8	17.1	-2.29
David Wood	3	4	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	14	-16	0.7	16.7	-16.03	6.2	16.9	-10.62
Elliot Perry	14	14	-0.00	0.50	-0.51	0.02	-1	13	-14	17.7	15.9	1.86	16.2	16.4	-0.21
Darrin Hancock	8	10	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	0.05	-3	15	-18	13.9	16.4	-2.50	10.6	17.1	-6.53
Keith Tower	9	10	-0.07	0.57	-0.63	0.02	-3	15	-18	18.6	15.9	2.68	16.5	16.4	0.12

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
David Vaughn	11	11	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-12	12	15.7	16.5	-0.76	17.7	15.9	1.81
Derek Strong	34	33	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.12	0	-12	12	16.5	16.3	0.22	17.4	15.4	1.95
Nick Anderson	70	71	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.00	-6	-6	0	15.7	18.9	-3.25	15.5	18.8	-3.32
Rony Seikaly	67	67	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	0.03	-8	-4	-4	16.4	16.4	0.04	16.1	16.4	-0.37
Dan Schayes	9	9	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.12	-6	-6	0	19.3	16.1	3.27	16.6	16.1	0.45
Brian Shaw	42	40	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.22	-3	-9	6	17.8	15.2	2.59	17.1	15.3	1.79
Horace Grant	75	76	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.10	-10	-2	-8	16.4	16.6	-0.21	15.6	19.6	-3.98
Gerald Wilkins	78	75	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.10	-13	1	-14	16.4	16.3	0.14	16.2	16.1	0.08
Darrell Armstrong	59	58	-0.51	0.01	-0.53	-0.10	-14	2	-16	15.8	17.5	-1.62	16.0	16.4	-0.43

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.59,0.56,0.57,0.53,0.59,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.48,0.42,0.46,0.53,0.58,0.6,0.47,0.47,0.48,0.51,0.44,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.42,0.39,0.42,0.27,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.52,0.48,0.38,0.38,0.25,0.29,0.27,0.21,0.11,0.07,0.03,0.01,0.02,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 91, DEN 88	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.6,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.56,0.51,0.48,0.44,0.51,0.55,0.56,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.43,0.44,0.5,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.36,0.27,0.32,0.4,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.44,0.34,0.43,0.29,0.38,0.32,0.21,0.12,0.13,0.07,0.15,0.23,0.09,0	93.9%
HOU 102, LAC 85	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.44,0.48,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.46,0.39,0.39,0.44,0.42,0.46,0.44,0.5,0.41,0.46,0.39,0.33,0.33,0.26,0.25,0.25,0.27,0.37,0.36,0.34,0.3,0.31,0.25,0.27,0.21,0.11,0.04,0.01,0.01,0,0,0	93.8%
IND 102, DEN 87	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.57,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.49,0.53,0.58,0.56,0.47,0.37,0.34,0.33,0.39,0.39,0.46,0.45,0.37,0.36,0.33,0.36,0.35,0.38,0.44,0.41,0.48,0.52,0.42,0.38,0.25,0.17,0.19,0.14,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0	93.8%