NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	99		Excitement	8.9 [164]		MVP	Wesley Matthews (DAL): +40.5%
Chicago Bulls	98		Comeback	3.9 [259]		LVP	Dwyane Wade (CHI): -50.4%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Wesley Matthews	0.40	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.4	0.03	0.38	-0.00	10	55%	0.43	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Seth Curry	0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.13	0.07	-0.00	10	82%	0.22	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
J.J. Barea	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.09,0.19,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.07	0.05	-0.03	8	75%	0.15	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Powell	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.04	0.03	-0.00	4	75%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dorian Finney-Smith	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Harrison Barnes	-0.01	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,-0.02,0.12,0.12,0.12,-0.01	0.04	-0.03	0.02	17	56%	0.05	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Dirk Nowitzki	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	9	42%	-0.03	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.05
Devin Harris	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.06	0.02	-0.00	7	40%	0.01	2	-0.04	6	100%	0.04
Salah Mejri	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	2	50%	-0.01	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.04
Deron Williams	-0.08	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.01,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	0.00	11	50%	0.00	4	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Cristiano Felicio	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.08	0.10	0.00	3	100%	0.18	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Doug McDermott	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.1	0.10	-0.03	0.12	-0.00	10	35%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jimmy Butler	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.13,0.07	0.07	0.05	0.02	0.00	12	60%	0.27	3	-0.20	16	87%	0.05
Nikola Mirotic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.05	0.01	0.00	4	75%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Robin Lopez	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.06,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.07	-0.04	0.00	15	68%	0.11	3	-0.08	1	100%	0.01
Michael Carter-Williams	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.05	-0.00	0.02	6	83%	0.07	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Paul Zipser	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	-0.01	0.01	5	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bobby Portis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jerian Grant	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rajon Rondo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.08	-0.08	-0.00	4	0%	-0.10	1	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.19,-0.19,-0.13,-0.05,-0.05,-0.17,-0.5	-0.50	-0.13	-0.38	-0.00	21	38%	-0.39	4	-0.11	3	33%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.2	1.6	31.5	15.4	27.4	1.8	35.0	134.9
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +75.3%

CHI -14.3%

CHI -39.6%

DAL +24.8%

DAL +3.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	CHI	NBA	DAL	CHI	NBA
this game	15.5	15.3	14.8	107.6	103.2	107.7
season	16.2	15.1		104.4	105.9
opponent	14.8	14.7		105.9	107.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	14.8	15.2	14.9	17.2	15.5
CHI	15.8	13.6	15.1	17.0	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Seth Curry	55	58	0.76	-0.26	1.02	0.59	6	-5	11	15.3	15.7	-0.35	16.3	13.9	2.41
Deron Williams	55	58	0.76	-0.26	1.02	0.59	6	-5	11	15.3	15.7	-0.35	16.3	13.9	2.41
Salah Mejri	33	34	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.56	1	0	1	16.5	14.9	1.68	15.7	15.1	0.53
Harrison Barnes	70	73	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.54	0	1	-1	16.2	13.2	3.00	16.0	13.1	2.92
Dorian Finney-Smith	17	17	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.02	11	-10	21	15.2	15.5	-0.36	14.1	15.6	-1.56
Wesley Matthews	75	78	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.45	-10	11	-21	15.5	15.2	0.36	15.6	14.1	1.56
Dwight Powell	26	26	0.07	0.43	-0.36	-0.07	5	-4	9	14.3	15.9	-1.67	14.2	15.8	-1.52
Dirk Nowitzki	55	57	-0.20	0.70	-0.90	-0.08	-4	5	-9	14.5	16.9	-2.47	14.8	16.2	-1.41
Devin Harris	37	37	-0.26	0.76	-1.02	-0.12	-5	6	-11	15.7	15.3	0.35	13.9	16.3	-2.41
J.J. Barea	37	37	-0.26	0.76	-1.02	-0.12	-5	6	-11	15.7	15.3	0.35	13.9	16.3	-2.41

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rajon Rondo	45	43	0.16	-0.66	0.83	0.08	3	-4	7	14.7	15.9	-1.23	15.7	15.3	0.35
Jerian Grant	6	7	0.07	-0.57	0.65	-0.01	3	-4	7	17.0	15.2	1.78	16.0	15.4	0.58
Paul Zipser	38	38	0.05	-0.55	0.60	-0.13	6	-7	13	15.7	15.1	0.62	15.4	15.5	-0.12
Jimmy Butler	78	75	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.45	10	-11	21	15.6	14.1	1.56	15.5	15.2	0.36
Cristiano Felicio	25	24	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	0.02	-8	7	-15	15.0	15.4	-0.40	15.6	15.4	0.16
Bobby Portis	15	16	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	0.07	-10	9	-19	12.9	15.8	-2.93	13.4	15.9	-2.46
Michael Carter-Williams	43	42	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.11	-6	5	-11	15.7	15.0	0.70	14.8	16.0	-1.17
Robin Lopez	70	68	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.49	7	-8	15	15.4	15.0	0.40	15.4	15.6	-0.16
Doug McDermott	43	42	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.49	6	-7	13	14.4	16.1	-1.68	15.6	15.3	0.32
Nikola Mirotic	42	38	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	-0.41	3	-4	7	15.9	14.9	0.98	16.4	14.8	1.58
Dwyane Wade	70	67	-0.98	0.48	-1.47	-0.43	-19	18	-37	15.6	14.5	1.11	15.5	15.4	0.15

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.57,0.61,0.54,0.58,0.61,0.57,0.51,0.53,0.61,0.58,0.56,0.6,0.57,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.37,0.32,0.34,0.35,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.3,0.29,0.28,0.2,0.15,0.19,0.23,0.14,0.22,0.17,0.33,0.36,0.42,0.48,0.43,0.38,0.42,0.59,0.47,0.39,0.62,0.64,0.45,0.29,0
Game		Similarity Score
DET 110, CHH 105	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.49,0.55,0.63,0.63,0.55,0.56,0.5,0.44,0.49,0.47,0.4,0.39,0.42,0.42,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.33,0.27,0.19,0.26,0.15,0.17,0.19,0.11,0.2,0.16,0.18,0.19,0.12,0.22,0.26,0.29,0.42,0.37,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.62,0.45,0.23,0.27,0	90.6%
NYK 87, TOR 81	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.57,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.48,0.47,0.42,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.44,0.42,0.39,0.36,0.36,0.39,0.3,0.19,0.16,0.18,0.17,0.16,0.23,0.17,0.18,0.27,0.37,0.48,0.58,0.48,0.47,0.58,0.47,0.36,0.29,0.34,0.38,0.55,0.67,0.27,0	90.5%
CHH 92, MIN 87	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.5,0.54,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.54,0.5,0.42,0.4,0.47,0.44,0.42,0.3,0.29,0.36,0.42,0.41,0.39,0.3,0.4,0.31,0.33,0.27,0.39,0.47,0.38,0.31,0.3,0.37,0.48,0.34,0.43,0.57,0.57,0.53,0.64,0.47,0.47,0.48,0.55,0.57,0.16,0	90.3%