NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	107		Excitement	10.3 [55]		MVP	Marc Gasol (MEM): +69.4%
Memphis Grizzlies	108		Comeback	7.9 [187]		LVP	Mike Conley (MEM): -51.8%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jamal Murray	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.07	0.11	-0.00	7	71%	0.18	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Emmanuel Mudiay	0.17	0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,0.07,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,0,0,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.01,0.17	0.02	0.17	0.01	13	64%	0.53	7	-0.36	10	80%	0.03
Nikola Jokic	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,0.06,0.06,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.01	0.14	0.00	10	50%	0.15	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Danilo Gallinari	0.10	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.09	0.01	-0.00	11	68%	0.18	2	-0.08	9	89%	0.04
Jameer Nelson	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.02	-0.02	5	75%	0.10	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.02
Kenneth Faried	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.01	4	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Jarnell Stokes	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	0.00	0	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Juan Hernangomez	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Miller	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.13	-0.02	-0.11	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.13	0	0%	0.00
Jusuf Nurkic	-0.14	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.04	-0.09	0.01	7	73%	0.05	6	-0.19	1	100%	0.00
Gary Harris	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.12,0.12,0.01,-0.16	-0.03	-0.13	0.00	13	50%	0.05	3	-0.20	4	75%	0.03

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Marc Gasol	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,-0.02,0.69	0.69	0.09	0.62	0.01	14	61%	0.72	1	-0.03	3	33%	-0.01
Vince Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3	0.30	0.14	0.17	0.00	13	71%	0.30	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Zach Randolph	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.06	0.10	-0.00	13	59%	0.18	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.02
Jarell Martin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.08	0.06	0.01	4	90%	0.14	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Andrew Harrison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.01	0.04	-0.02	6	71%	0.18	3	-0.11	2	100%	0.02
James Ennis	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.16,0.16,-0.03	-0.03	0.03	-0.06	-0.00	4	75%	0.22	2	-0.25	4	100%	0.02
Troy Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	2	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chandler Parsons	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.02	0.01	8	53%	-0.00	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.01
JaMychal Green	0,0,0,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.01	0.01	7	43%	-0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Mike Conley	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.13,-0.12,-0.17,-0.16,-0.16,-0.24,-0.52	-0.52	-0.15	-0.37	-0.00	15	29%	-0.27	3	-0.25	4	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.3	2.5	36.4	16.3	27.5	2.3	43.7	153.1
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MEM +43.4%

DEN -26.9%

DEN -11.9%

MEM +25.2%

MEM +20.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	MEM	NBA	DEN	MEM	NBA
this game	14.0	16.0	14.8	111.5	112.5	107.7
season	14.4	16.1		111.6	106.4
opponent	14.9	14.5		106.7	111.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	13.4	14.6	16.5	12.0	14.0
MEM	15.4	16.7	16.3	15.7	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nikola Jokic	56	57	0.41	-0.91	1.31	0.26	5	-6	11	14.4	13.4	1.00	15.7	16.4	-0.62
Jusuf Nurkic	61	60	0.37	-0.87	1.25	0.43	-2	1	-3	13.3	15.3	-1.96	16.1	15.8	0.34
Jarnell Stokes	1	2	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	0.02	-2	1	-3	13.0	14.0	-1.02	16.0	16.0	0.01
Mike Miller	0	1	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	-0.13	0	-1	1	0.0	14.0	-14.01	3.0	16.1	-13.13
Juan Hernangomez	19	19	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	-0.09	-3	2	-5	13.4	14.2	-0.80	18.5	15.4	3.16
Jamal Murray	34	32	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.09	-3	2	-5	14.9	13.5	1.30	17.0	15.5	1.47
Kenneth Faried	56	55	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.26	1	-2	3	13.6	14.5	-0.88	16.2	15.8	0.41
Danilo Gallinari	76	77	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.39	5	-6	11	14.0	14.1	-0.11	15.8	16.7	-0.93
Emmanuel Mudiay	73	73	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.41	5	-6	11	14.3	13.1	1.21	15.0	19.0	-3.96
Gary Harris	61	62	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.38	-3	2	-5	13.6	14.7	-1.06	15.6	16.7	-1.11
Jameer Nelson	45	44	-0.95	0.45	-1.40	-0.77	-6	5	-11	14.1	13.9	0.23	16.3	15.7	0.52

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chandler Parsons	42	43	1.14	-0.64	1.78	0.76	13	-12	25	15.8	16.1	-0.28	14.5	13.6	0.91
JaMychal Green	48	48	0.71	-0.21	0.91	0.35	12	-11	23	16.5	15.5	0.98	16.0	12.0	3.98
Vince Carter	64	62	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.45	-3	4	-7	16.2	15.5	0.73	13.5	14.9	-1.35
Mike Conley	61	62	0.32	0.18	0.15	0.35	-1	2	-3	15.8	16.3	-0.47	13.5	15.0	-1.49
James Ennis	63	66	0.25	0.25	-0.01	0.39	-5	6	-11	15.8	16.4	-0.62	13.4	15.3	-1.92
Andrew Harrison	50	49	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.13	3	-2	5	16.4	15.5	0.94	14.8	13.2	1.52
Marc Gasol	64	61	0.20	0.30	-0.11	0.34	-5	6	-11	15.4	17.2	-1.75	14.1	13.8	0.33
Jarell Martin	35	35	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.18	-2	3	-5	15.8	16.1	-0.25	14.0	14.0	-0.06
Troy Williams	8	7	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.03	-2	3	-5	15.0	16.1	-1.08	18.3	13.7	4.61
Zach Randolph	45	47	-0.78	1.28	-2.07	-0.64	-5	6	-11	16.4	15.6	0.81	12.1	15.8	-3.65

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.5,0.54,0.59,0.61,0.6,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.5,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.65,0.64,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.46,0.5,0.52,0.54,0.64,0.58,0.64,0.65,0.71,0.56,0.59,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.7,0.7,0.72,0.77,0.79,0.73,0.83,0.61,0.45,0.55,0.58,1
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 99, DET 101	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.45,0.5,0.46,0.44,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.58,0.51,0.49,0.58,0.61,0.59,0.56,0.64,0.54,0.59,0.51,0.59,0.63,0.64,0.67,0.71,0.74,0.65,0.56,0.52,0.6,0.52,0.78,0.66,0.71,0.79,0.81,0.83,0.8,0.73,0.53,0.55,0.69,0.73,1	92.4%
PHI 106, SAC 107	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.57,0.63,0.65,0.62,0.61,0.62,0.6,0.55,0.52,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.58,0.58,0.59,0.56,0.61,0.65,0.61,0.54,0.51,0.58,0.66,0.63,0.58,0.58,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.59,0.6,0.52,0.7,0.74,0.79,0.76,0.81,0.64,0.54,0.72,0.69,0.39,0.67,0.73,1	92.2%
NJN 90, SEA 96	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.6,0.63,0.66,0.67,0.65,0.65,0.66,0.6,0.56,0.58,0.53,0.6,0.58,0.63,0.59,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.6,0.63,0.58,0.58,0.61,0.58,0.52,0.62,0.69,0.7,0.56,0.5,0.57,0.7,0.8,0.68,0.64,0.76,0.83,0.62,0.54,0.45,0.58,1	91.8%