NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	99		Excitement	9.1 [106]		MVP	Carmelo Anthony (DEN): +39.0%
Detroit Pistons	101		Comeback	1.4 [284]		LVP	Nene (DEN): -17.6%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Carmelo Anthony	0.39	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.12,0.1,0.13,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.2,0.33,0.4,0.31,0.39,0.39	0.21	0.18	-0.00	28	63%	0.45	2	-0.06	7	86%	-0.01
Joey Graham	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.00	3	67%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Arron Afflalo	-0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	3	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Johan Petro	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Chris Andersen	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	4	53%	0.02	2	-0.05	9	56%	-0.06
Chauncey Billups	-0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,-0.04	0.02	-0.07	-0.00	16	52%	0.03	3	-0.07	8	100%	0.05
J.R. Smith	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.01	-0.04	-0.00	16	41%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Ty Lawson	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.08	-0.04	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Nene	-0.18	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.18,-0.18	-0.03	-0.14	0.01	5	53%	0.05	3	-0.23	5	80%	0.00

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Charlie Villanueva	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.23,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.12	0.05	0.01	19	60%	0.21	1	-0.04	7	86%	-0.02
Ben Wallace	0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.04	0.07	-0.02	7	35%	0.05	0	0.00	6	50%	-0.06
Austin Daye	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.01	0.00	6	58%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Maxiell	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.01	0.00	5	67%	0.07	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
DaJuan Summers	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.02	0.00	1	150%	0.08	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Kwame Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	0.00	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Rodney Stuckey	0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.16,-0.07	-0.07	0.01	-0.03	0.05	14	58%	0.10	5	-0.17	15	73%	-0.01
Chucky Atkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.05	-0.00	10	37%	-0.07	0	0.00	4	100%	0.06
Jonas Jerebko	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.08	-0.06	12	41%	-0.03	2	-0.05	5	60%	-0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	31.7	2.5	31.3	17.4	29.3	1.8	39.7	153.8
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +6.3%

DEN -10.7%

DET +34.6%

DET +17.6%

DET +2.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	DET	NBA	DEN	DET	NBA
this game	14.8	17.2	15.3	112.5	109.8	106.0
season	14.4	16.8		110.3	104.0
opponent	15.2	15.5		109.8	106.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	13.7	15.5	15.0	15.0	14.8
DET	15.6	16.5	17.0	20.2	17.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Arron Afflalo	28	31	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	-0.05	-1	-1	0	16.2	14.1	2.17	16.1	17.7	-1.58
Johan Petro	19	20	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	0.01	-4	2	-6	14.0	15.0	-0.99	19.5	16.5	2.97
Chauncey Billups	62	65	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.38	9	-11	20	15.7	12.6	3.12	16.8	18.1	-1.38
Joey Graham	34	38	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.04	-6	4	-10	13.1	15.8	-2.75	16.8	17.4	-0.65
Ty Lawson	31	33	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.10	-6	4	-10	12.8	15.8	-3.04	17.1	17.2	-0.18
Chris Andersen	63	63	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.34	2	-4	6	15.3	13.5	1.75	18.2	14.9	3.38
Nene	69	72	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.45	2	-4	6	15.0	14.0	0.99	16.5	19.5	-2.97
Carmelo Anthony	77	80	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	-0.49	0	-2	2	15.4	10.5	4.83	17.1	17.4	-0.28
J.R. Smith	57	58	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.37	-6	4	-10	13.8	16.6	-2.89	17.4	16.8	0.60

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chucky Atkins	69	63	0.67	-0.17	0.84	0.37	10	-8	18	17.3	16.8	0.46	14.4	15.8	-1.38
Ben Wallace	69	65	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.38	5	-3	8	16.9	18.0	-1.16	14.9	14.4	0.46
Charlie Villanueva	64	65	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.20	5	-3	8	17.1	17.3	-0.21	14.8	14.6	0.22
Jason Maxiell	33	30	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.28	-2	4	-6	18.6	16.4	2.23	14.3	15.0	-0.72
DaJuan Summers	16	15	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.15	1	1	0	15.6	17.5	-1.88	14.7	14.8	-0.13
Jonas Jerebko	65	61	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.39	-7	9	-16	17.1	17.3	-0.23	14.9	14.6	0.26
Rodney Stuckey	72	70	0.16	0.34	-0.19	0.42	-9	11	-20	17.2	17.1	0.03	15.1	13.4	1.67
Austin Daye	45	44	0.13	0.37	-0.25	0.01	4	-2	6	16.9	17.4	-0.47	14.5	15.0	-0.50
Kwame Brown	27	27	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.01	3	-1	4	17.5	17.0	0.44	15.2	14.6	0.60

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.5,0.45,0.5,0.46,0.44,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.58,0.51,0.49,0.58,0.61,0.59,0.56,0.64,0.54,0.59,0.51,0.59,0.63,0.64,0.67,0.71,0.74,0.65,0.56,0.52,0.6,0.52,0.78,0.66,0.71,0.79,0.81,0.83,0.8,0.73,0.53,0.55,0.69,0.73,1
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 107, MEM 108	0.5,0.51,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.5,0.54,0.59,0.61,0.6,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.5,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.65,0.64,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.46,0.5,0.52,0.54,0.64,0.58,0.64,0.65,0.71,0.56,0.59,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.7,0.7,0.72,0.77,0.79,0.73,0.83,0.61,0.45,0.55,0.58,1	92.4%
NJN 75, PHX 82	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.5,0.5,0.47,0.51,0.57,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.53,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.6,0.67,0.69,0.63,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.59,0.5,0.6,0.63,0.76,0.78,0.76,0.74,0.62,0.59,0.56,0.63,0.68,0.62,0.7,0.74,0.76,0.77,0.78,0.85,0.72,0.47,0.46,0.45,0.84,1	92.4%
WAS 97, MIL 100	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.48,0.46,0.5,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.52,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.59,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.67,0.68,0.8,0.7,0.73,0.63,0.6,0.66,0.74,0.79,0.8,0.72,0.74,0.89,0.83,0.61,0.72,0.86,0.73,1	91.7%