NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Washington Wizards	97		Excitement	8.7 [170]		MVP	Michael Redd (MIL): +53.9%
Milwaukee Bucks	100		Comeback	1.7 [804]		LVP	Gilbert Arenas (WAS): -37.1%

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Antawn Jamison	0.24	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.1,-0.2,-0.16,-0.19,-0.22,-0.22,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.25,-0.25,0.24	-0.10	0.33	-0.01	18	42%	0.42	4	-0.17	2	50%	-0.02
Antonio Daniels	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.14,0.14	0.07	0.08	0.01	13	58%	0.17	1	-0.02	10	90%	0.06
Michael Ruffin	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.00	0.03	0.00	0	50%	0.03	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.00
Billy Thomas	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Etan Thomas	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	7	57%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Calvin Booth	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andray Blatche	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jared Jeffries	-0.06	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.06,-0.06	0.04	-0.09	0.02	11	67%	0.13	4	-0.20	8	62%	-0.05
Brendan Haywood	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	2	37%	-0.02	1	-0.05	4	25%	-0.08
Donell Taylor	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.04	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Gilbert Arenas	-0.37	0,0,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0,0,0,-0.37	-0.05	-0.37	-0.05	22	52%	0.10	6	-0.47	4	75%	-0.01

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Redd	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.13,0.54	0.54	0.11	0.43	0.00	16	63%	0.56	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.03
Joe Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.10	0.08	0.00	5	78%	0.18	0	0.00	8	75%	-0.02
Andrew Bogut	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.05	0.04	0.01	12	68%	0.17	3	-0.09	1	100%	0.00
Toni Kukoc	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.15,0.1,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.01	0.05	-0.00	7	62%	0.14	3	-0.10	2	50%	-0.01
Dan Gadzuric	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
T.J. Ford	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	0.03	0.06	9	62%	0.08	3	-0.09	8	100%	0.08
Charlie Bell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bobby Simmons	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	8	39%	-0.01	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Jamaal Magloire	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	2	50%	-0.01	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.02
Mo Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	8	39%	-0.05	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.4	2.5	28.5	15.4	29.4	2.4	39.5	140.1
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +19.3%

MIL +7.3%

WAS -36.6%

MIL +60.7%

WAS -0.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	WAS	MIL	NBA	WAS	MIL	NBA
this game	15.8	14.5	15.6	102.1	105.3	104.4
season	15.1	15.5		107.4	104.6
opponent	15.5	15.6		106.0	105.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
WAS	15.3	18.2	14.6	15.5	15.8
MIL	14.1	14.5	14.8	14.5	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Billy Thomas	1	2	0.42	-0.92	1.34	0.33	3	-6	9	28.0	15.7	12.30	4.5	14.7	-10.20
Andray Blatche	8	9	0.05	-0.55	0.60	0.02	1	-4	5	20.9	15.4	5.51	15.1	14.4	0.69
Calvin Booth	3	3	0.03	-0.53	0.56	0.06	-1	-2	1	21.3	15.7	5.68	13.3	14.5	-1.19
Brendan Haywood	25	24	0.01	-0.51	0.51	-0.11	4	-7	11	15.8	15.9	-0.10	15.6	14.1	1.53
Donell Taylor	14	15	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.04	1	-4	5	14.1	16.1	-1.98	14.7	14.4	0.30
Etan Thomas	54	55	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.15	-1	-2	1	15.5	16.3	-0.81	14.2	14.8	-0.59
Antawn Jamison	72	73	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.34	0	-3	3	15.0	18.4	-3.43	14.5	14.3	0.28
Gilbert Arenas	90	90	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.40	2	-5	7	15.9	14.8	1.09	14.7	10.2	4.52
Jared Jeffries	85	85	-0.64	0.14	-0.77	-0.40	-8	5	-13	15.9	15.6	0.26	15.0	10.5	4.45
Antonio Daniels	86	85	-0.69	0.19	-0.89	-0.37	-11	8	-19	16.0	13.8	2.27	14.2	17.0	-2.81
Michael Ruffin	37	34	-0.82	0.32	-1.13	-0.67	-5	2	-7	16.1	15.7	0.41	13.3	15.1	-1.85

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Michael Redd	62	67	0.91	-0.41	1.33	0.77	5	-2	7	14.7	14.0	0.74	15.7	16.2	-0.49
Andrew Bogut	69	68	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.43	3	0	3	14.2	15.2	-1.03	15.9	15.7	0.23
T.J. Ford	63	63	0.50	0.00	0.49	0.35	5	-2	7	14.3	14.9	-0.59	15.5	16.5	-1.01
Joe Smith	57	57	0.38	0.12	0.25	0.32	2	1	1	13.8	15.6	-1.82	16.2	15.3	0.90
Toni Kukoc	41	40	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.31	2	1	1	14.7	14.3	0.44	16.4	15.4	1.07
Bobby Simmons	53	53	0.15	0.35	-0.21	0.12	1	2	-1	14.6	14.4	0.19	15.4	16.4	-0.94
Mo Williams	35	34	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.02	3	0	3	14.4	14.5	-0.09	16.5	15.4	1.09
Jamaal Magloire	39	40	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.12	-3	6	-9	15.6	13.7	1.96	15.1	16.3	-1.22
Dan Gadzuric	25	24	0.02	0.48	-0.46	-0.04	2	1	1	15.1	14.3	0.86	16.5	15.6	0.95
Charlie Bell	31	29	-0.48	0.98	-1.45	-0.33	-5	8	-13	14.0	14.7	-0.77	15.5	16.0	-0.45

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.48,0.46,0.5,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.52,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.59,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.67,0.68,0.8,0.7,0.73,0.63,0.6,0.66,0.74,0.79,0.8,0.72,0.74,0.89,0.83,0.61,0.72,0.86,0.73,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 81, DEN 82	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.62,0.57,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.52,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.44,0.46,0.5,0.48,0.49,0.55,0.61,0.64,0.62,0.74,0.75,0.76,0.81,0.68,0.62,0.74,0.75,0.76,0.81,0.92,0.94,0.82,0.69,0.71,0.77,0.72,1	93.1%
BOS 109, GSW 111	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.53,0.5,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.46,0.48,0.56,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.54,0.52,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.55,0.63,0.52,0.55,0.62,0.62,0.74,0.75,0.66,0.67,0.75,0.7,0.66,0.66,0.71,0.84,0.79,0.8,0.78,0.68,0.79,0.77,0.41,1	92.5%
LAL 104, ORL 108	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.46,0.47,0.51,0.43,0.41,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.56,0.63,0.66,0.63,0.61,0.61,0.58,0.58,0.65,0.66,0.66,0.75,0.64,0.74,0.78,0.79,0.83,0.85,0.83,0.76,0.72,0.75,0.71,0.78,0.84,1	92.4%