NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Los Angeles Lakers	104		Excitement	7.4 [362]		MVP	Pau Gasol (LAL): +20.5%
Orlando Magic	108		Comeback	1.6 [782]		LVP	Kobe Bryant (LAL): -12.9%

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Pau Gasol	0.21	0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.24,0.33,0.21	0.16	0.05	0.01	11	82%	0.33	1	-0.13	6	83%	0.03
Derek Fisher	0.06	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06	0.02	0.04	-0.00	9	50%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lamar Odom	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.03	0.04	-0.00	6	65%	0.12	2	-0.06	5	60%	-0.03
Jordan Farmar	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.00	-0.00	6	79%	0.12	2	-0.08	2	100%	0.02
DJ Mbenga	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sasha Vujacic	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luke Walton	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	1	100%	0.02	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Trevor Ariza	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	13	46%	-0.01	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Andrew Bynum	-0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	6	31%	-0.02	1	-0.03	1	0%	-0.01
Kobe Bryant	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.08,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13	0.02	-0.14	0.01	25	52%	-0.02	4	-0.11	10	50%	-0.12

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mickael Pietrus	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.13,0.08,0.03,0.13,0.13,0.18	0.18	0.09	0.09	0.00	11	69%	0.23	1	-0.05	4	100%	0.06
Dwight Howard	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.12	0.08	0.03	6	75%	0.21	1	-0.04	16	69%	-0.01
Rashard Lewis	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.04,0.04,0.17,0.13	0.13	0.08	0.07	0.03	14	70%	0.25	3	-0.13	2	100%	0.00
Tony Battie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.02	0.04	0.00	3	67%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.08	-0.03	0.01	12	64%	0.07	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.02
Rafer Alston	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.07	-0.03	0.01	12	71%	0.12	3	-0.08	4	75%	-0.02
Marcin Gortat	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Courtney Lee	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	4	50%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jameer Nelson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	1	100%	0.02	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.0	3.8	34.6	21.8	30.4	3.7	46.3	168.5
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +22.7%

ORL +14.8%

ORL +4.4%

ORL +5.8%

ORL +2.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	LAL	ORL	NBA	LAL	ORL	NBA
this game	17.0	15.7	15.5	118.2	122.7	106.4
season	14.9	15.3		110.6	107.3
opponent	15.8	15.4		101.4	102.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
LAL	17.3	19.1	16.0	15.7	17.0
ORL	15.4	15.2	15.3	17.0	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
DJ Mbenga	1	1	0.02	-0.52	0.55	0.02	0	-4	4	13.0	17.1	-4.06	17.0	15.7	1.30
Sasha Vujacic	6	6	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.01	0	-4	4	16.0	17.1	-1.09	13.5	15.9	-2.38
Jordan Farmar	30	29	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	-0.14	1	-5	6	16.9	17.1	-0.22	16.0	15.6	0.37
Luke Walton	21	20	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	-0.03	-4	0	-4	17.7	16.8	0.92	16.4	15.5	0.89
Andrew Bynum	45	44	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.08	-3	-1	-2	17.0	17.0	0.07	14.7	16.7	-1.93
Derek Fisher	58	59	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.24	-5	1	-6	17.1	16.9	0.22	15.6	16.0	-0.37
Pau Gasol	73	73	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.42	1	-5	6	16.8	18.2	-1.43	15.8	15.4	0.38
Kobe Bryant	74	74	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.32	-3	-1	-2	16.9	17.5	-0.58	15.5	16.9	-1.44
Trevor Ariza	75	76	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.41	-1	-3	2	17.0	17.2	-0.17	15.9	14.3	1.60
Lamar Odom	57	58	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.28	-6	2	-8	17.4	16.4	1.01	16.3	14.5	1.84

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dwight Howard	80	80	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.37	5	-1	6	15.6	17.0	-1.41	17.0	16.9	0.15
Rashard Lewis	76	78	0.47	0.03	0.45	0.33	5	-1	6	15.1	19.4	-4.29	16.9	17.5	-0.55
Mickael Pietrus	57	57	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.34	3	1	2	16.3	14.6	1.65	16.3	18.4	-2.12
Hedo Turkoglu	76	76	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.31	2	2	0	16.0	13.7	2.37	17.5	14.0	3.49
Rafer Alston	68	67	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.36	0	4	-4	15.5	16.4	-0.89	16.8	17.7	-0.92
Courtney Lee	37	37	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.11	3	1	2	14.5	16.6	-2.07	17.4	16.8	0.59
Jameer Nelson	20	21	0.14	0.36	-0.21	0.03	4	0	4	16.4	15.5	0.89	17.7	16.8	0.92
Tony Battie	18	16	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.06	-1	5	-6	17.4	15.3	2.17	16.9	17.0	-0.09
Marcin Gortat	8	8	-0.02	0.52	-0.55	0.01	-1	5	-6	17.0	15.6	1.41	16.9	17.0	-0.15

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.46,0.47,0.51,0.43,0.41,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.56,0.63,0.66,0.63,0.61,0.61,0.58,0.58,0.65,0.66,0.66,0.75,0.64,0.74,0.78,0.79,0.83,0.85,0.83,0.76,0.72,0.75,0.71,0.78,0.84,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 90, BOS 98	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.53,0.47,0.5,0.53,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.39,0.37,0.44,0.41,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.59,0.57,0.64,0.52,0.67,0.68,0.68,0.78,0.77,0.67,0.6,0.78,0.87,0.82,0.89,0.88,0.79,0.85,0.78,0.75,0.72,0.95,0.91,1	93.4%
DAL 89, SAC 94	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.5,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.4,0.34,0.37,0.38,0.4,0.44,0.47,0.56,0.59,0.56,0.44,0.51,0.54,0.64,0.63,0.66,0.72,0.64,0.61,0.61,0.71,0.62,0.69,0.63,0.71,0.71,0.81,0.87,0.78,0.75,0.85,0.79,0.8,0.78,0.81,0.9,0.9,0.99,1	93.1%
MIA 72, SAS 80	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.55,0.59,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.43,0.42,0.42,0.38,0.4,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.58,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.6,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.59,0.68,0.7,0.71,0.79,0.74,0.84,0.85,0.83,0.93,0.92,0.88,0.78,0.74,0.84,0.95,1,1	93.0%