NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	90		Excitement	7.0 [380]		MVP	Paul Pierce (BOS): +13.2%
Boston Celtics	98		Comeback	2.0 [497]		LVP	Rajon Rondo (BOS): -9.6%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Finley	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.04,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07	0.12	-0.01	0.04	13	73%	0.11	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.00	4	37%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Robert Horry	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ime Udoka	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	5	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Damon Stoudamire	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.06	0.01	-0.03	11	35%	0.02	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
Fabricio Oberto	-0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	4	50%	0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.03,0,0,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.04,-0.01,0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.00	-0.04	-0.01	20	50%	0.08	3	-0.12	4	50%	-0.03
Manu Ginobili	-0.04	0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.04,-0.04	0.01	-0.03	0.02	15	66%	0.16	6	-0.19	2	100%	0.01
Jacque Vaughn	-0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	6	44%	-0.02	1	-0.04	6	67%	-0.01

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Paul Pierce	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.15,0.13	0.13	0.14	0.05	0.06	18	73%	0.26	5	-0.13	12	67%	-0.02
Tony Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.04	0.01	5	53%	0.06	0	0.00	5	80%	-0.00
Glen Davis	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.03	0.08	0.00	6	53%	0.12	3	-0.07	5	60%	-0.05
Eddie House	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.09,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.07	-0.02	0.00	6	83%	0.08	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Leon Powe	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.01	0.05	-0.00	4	50%	0.07	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Ray Allen	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.07,-0.07,0.01,0.01,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.02	0.01	16	50%	0.08	1	-0.05	6	67%	-0.02
James Posey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	5	50%	0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Brian Scalabrine	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	5	20%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Rajon Rondo	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1	-0.10	-0.05	-0.03	0.01	6	31%	-0.06	1	-0.04	4	75%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.3	3.6	31.2	18.7	30.1	2.7	42.1	155.8
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +18.9%

BOS +4.5%

BOS +21.9%

BOS +4.6%

BOS +0.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	BOS	NBA	SAS	BOS	NBA
this game	16.5	14.5	15.4	97.8	104.3	105.7
season	16.5	15.6		104.7	108.0
opponent	15.9	15.3		98.3	100.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	16.9	17.0	18.0	14.2	16.5
BOS	13.1	15.0	14.1	15.8	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Robert Horry	14	16	0.13	-0.63	0.76	-0.08	7	-15	22	15.8	16.6	-0.84	13.9	14.6	-0.67
Tim Duncan	77	80	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	-0.14	1	-9	10	16.3	17.6	-1.31	14.0	17.1	-3.03
Damon Stoudamire	46	47	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.01	-5	-3	-2	15.2	17.8	-2.61	14.5	14.5	0.00
Bruce Bowen	58	59	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.01	-8	0	-8	17.2	15.4	1.77	13.9	15.4	-1.50
Michael Finley	61	64	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.23	-2	-6	4	16.0	17.5	-1.48	14.9	13.7	1.21
Ime Udoka	45	48	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.19	-5	-3	-2	16.3	16.7	-0.33	14.7	14.2	0.49
Jacque Vaughn	46	46	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.23	-4	-4	0	17.8	15.2	2.61	14.8	14.2	0.57
Fabricio Oberto	39	37	-0.56	0.06	-0.63	-0.18	-13	5	-18	17.5	15.7	1.80	14.7	14.4	0.31
Manu Ginobili	74	73	-0.59	0.09	-0.67	-0.26	-11	3	-14	16.3	17.3	-0.97	14.8	13.5	1.30

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Paul Pierce	84	83	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.26	6	2	4	14.1	17.5	-3.37	16.4	17.3	-0.92
Rajon Rondo	68	66	0.40	0.10	0.31	0.17	8	0	8	13.3	17.5	-4.21	17.0	15.2	1.88
Glen Davis	67	64	0.34	0.16	0.17	0.22	4	4	0	14.2	15.2	-0.98	16.0	17.7	-1.80
James Posey	64	64	0.33	0.17	0.17	0.19	5	3	2	14.8	13.8	0.96	16.0	17.6	-1.54
Tony Allen	33	32	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.11	7	1	6	15.2	14.1	1.07	14.5	17.6	-3.11
Ray Allen	71	69	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.15	3	5	-2	14.6	14.2	0.42	17.6	13.3	4.20
Brian Scalabrine	31	29	0.17	0.33	-0.17	0.08	3	5	-2	14.2	14.6	-0.44	17.6	16.0	1.59
Leon Powe	26	27	0.16	0.34	-0.17	0.05	4	4	0	14.8	14.4	0.44	17.7	16.0	1.76
Eddie House	26	26	0.10	0.40	-0.31	0.10	0	8	-8	17.5	13.3	4.21	15.2	17.0	-1.88

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.53,0.47,0.5,0.53,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.39,0.37,0.44,0.41,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.59,0.57,0.64,0.52,0.67,0.68,0.68,0.78,0.77,0.67,0.6,0.78,0.87,0.82,0.89,0.88,0.79,0.85,0.78,0.75,0.72,0.95,0.91,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 112, WAS 121	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.49,0.42,0.49,0.42,0.44,0.41,0.36,0.39,0.56,0.54,0.44,0.49,0.52,0.63,0.61,0.64,0.7,0.77,0.75,0.78,0.79,0.71,0.72,0.78,0.84,0.85,0.92,0.9,0.94,0.85,0.82,0.86,0.84,0.91,0.91,1	94.0%
LAC 89, BOS 95	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.46,0.4,0.31,0.31,0.38,0.33,0.37,0.34,0.31,0.36,0.44,0.46,0.5,0.55,0.6,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.71,0.71,0.79,0.76,0.74,0.71,0.7,0.82,0.83,0.86,0.81,0.87,0.85,0.87,0.81,0.95,0.98,1,1	93.6%
NYK 70, PHI 74	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.57,0.54,0.52,0.55,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.48,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.42,0.39,0.46,0.41,0.42,0.46,0.49,0.5,0.52,0.52,0.61,0.61,0.67,0.74,0.68,0.73,0.69,0.7,0.64,0.58,0.74,0.85,0.83,0.91,0.89,0.8,0.83,0.81,0.79,0.85,0.95,1	93.6%