NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	116		Excitement	13.7 [5]		MVP	Deron Williams (DAL): +95.7%
Dallas Mavericks	117		Comeback	73.1 [15]		LVP	Jose Juan Barea (DAL): -26.6%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rudy Gay	0.35	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.22,0.22,0.17,0.17,0.23,0.23,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.41,0.36,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.35,0.35	0.19	0.17	0.01	20	74%	0.40	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Marco Belinelli	0.28	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.41,0.36,0.36,0.31,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28	-0.01	0.29	-0.00	17	41%	0.28	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darren Collison	0.17	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.2,0.2,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	-0.05	0.18	-0.04	14	45%	0.22	3	-0.05	3	67%	0.01
Quincy Acy	0.16	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.14	0.03	0.01	4	109%	0.16	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
DeMarcus Cousins	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.02,0,0.06,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.14,-0.09,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.36,-0.07,-0.07,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.39,-0.32,-0.09,0,-0.02,-0.03	-0.09	0.02	-0.03	30	53%	0.66	10	-0.69	6	50%	-0.01
James Anderson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ben McLemore	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	5	40%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Kosta Koufos	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Seth Curry	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.02	-0.09	-0.00	7	43%	-0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Deron Williams	0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.18,0.13,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.2,0.2,0.07,0.08,0.96	0.96	0.03	0.93	0.01	18	62%	1.09	5	-0.13	4	50%	-0.07
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,0.07,0.18,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.41	0.41	0.05	0.37	0.00	19	52%	0.43	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.01
Wesley Matthews	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.13,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.09,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.3,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.24	0.12	0.11	0.00	13	65%	0.24	0	0.00	5	80%	0.01
JaVale McGee	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.09	0.04	0.00	8	72%	0.12	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Devin Harris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.03	0.03	-0.01	4	62%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Raymond Felton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.05	0.02	-0.01	5	50%	0.14	3	-0.16	0	0%	0.00
Chandler Parsons	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	0.01	-0.00	10	42%	0.01	2	-0.05	4	50%	-0.02
Zaza Pachulia	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.10	-0.08	-0.01	11	37%	-0.08	3	-0.08	2	50%	-0.03
Jose Juan Barea	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,0.04,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.22,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27	-0.27	-0.09	-0.17	-0.00	10	35%	-0.15	3	-0.12	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1		OT2	Total
this game	24.4	1.7	26.2	15.5	23.3	1.7	39.0	2.4	16.3	1.7	13.4	165.5
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	2.2	17.3	2.2	17.3	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +33.3%

SAC -6.0%

SAC -8.4%

DAL +32.6%

SAC -1.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	DAL	NBA	SAC	DAL	NBA
this game	14.8	15.9	14.9	102.7	102.6	105.1
season	13.9	15.5		104.8	105.0
opponent	14.7	14.6		106.5	107.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
SAC	13.2	15.7	13.8	14.5	17.8	14.8
DAL	14.5	18.6	15.5	15.5	15.5	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Seth Curry	69	71	0.31	-0.81	1.12	0.05	9	-10	19	15.1	14.3	0.80	16.5	14.8	1.63
Quincy Acy	35	33	0.02	-0.52	0.54	0.17	-5	4	-9	14.2	15.1	-0.92	14.8	16.3	-1.41
Kosta Koufos	35	33	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	0.08	-3	2	-5	14.6	14.9	-0.34	16.5	15.6	0.89
Marco Belinelli	80	84	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	-0.30	7	-8	15	15.3	13.6	1.69	16.4	14.4	1.92
Ben McLemore	37	39	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	-0.06	-3	2	-5	14.2	15.1	-0.92	15.6	16.0	-0.36
Rudy Gay	94	96	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.43	4	-5	9	14.9	14.4	0.53	15.6	17.3	-1.76
DeMarcus Cousins	95	96	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.45	4	-5	9	14.8	15.1	-0.30	15.5	17.5	-1.96
Darren Collison	90	92	-0.66	0.16	-0.83	-0.55	-4	3	-7	14.9	14.5	0.36	15.7	16.3	-0.58
James Anderson	30	26	-1.27	0.77	-2.05	-0.86	-14	13	-27	14.2	15.0	-0.82	15.9	15.8	0.09

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dirk Nowitzki	84	86	1.28	-0.78	2.07	0.99	10	-9	19	15.5	16.7	-1.20	14.8	14.7	0.13
Devin Harris	36	35	0.67	-0.17	0.84	0.58	3	-2	5	15.7	15.9	-0.19	12.8	15.7	-2.91
Raymond Felton	69	69	0.55	-0.05	0.61	0.38	6	-5	11	15.9	15.8	0.05	14.7	14.9	-0.17
Deron Williams	85	83	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.47	-7	8	-15	15.6	16.6	-0.99	15.1	13.9	1.19
Jose Juan Barea	42	42	0.11	0.39	-0.28	-0.01	4	-3	7	17.1	15.1	1.97	15.7	14.3	1.45
JaVale McGee	35	35	0.04	0.46	-0.43	-0.05	3	-2	5	17.4	15.2	2.19	13.4	15.4	-1.99
Wesley Matthews	75	75	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.04	-1	2	-3	15.5	16.4	-0.89	14.5	15.5	-1.01
Chandler Parsons	56	57	-0.32	0.82	-1.13	-0.11	-7	8	-15	16.1	15.6	0.57	14.1	15.6	-1.48
Zaza Pachulia	79	75	-0.61	1.11	-1.72	-0.41	-7	8	-15	15.2	17.4	-2.19	16.0	12.4	3.55

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.47,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.58,0.55,0.51,0.54,0.6,0.63,0.63,0.66,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.67,0.74,0.77,0.7,0.67,0.76,0.77,0.75,0.76,0.73,0.71,0.82,0.81,0.81,0.79,0.72,0.58,0.59,0.6,0.67,0.45,0.55,0.45,0.58,0.46,0.31,0.28,0.22,0.16,0.54,0.45,0.37,0.1,0.02,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 101, MIA 102	0.5,0.49,0.53,0.52,0.48,0.49,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.6,0.64,0.73,0.74,0.68,0.71,0.71,0.71,0.71,0.76,0.79,0.74,0.74,0.75,0.7,0.7,0.61,0.63,0.7,0.76,0.73,0.71,0.75,0.81,0.73,0.81,0.72,0.74,0.7,0.82,0.71,0.77,0.79,0.65,0.82,0.62,0.64,0.57,0.96,0.54,0.45,0.37,0.33,0.27,0.54,0.68,0.64,0.55,0.16,1	86.3%
NYK 116, DET 111	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.53,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.41,0.4,0.49,0.53,0.5,0.51,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.58,0.63,0.59,0.59,0.56,0.54,0.59,0.73,0.71,0.71,0.69,0.7,0.7,0.82,0.71,0.72,0.72,0.77,0.85,0.87,0.89,0.75,0.67,0.63,0.74,0.81,0.78,0.62,0.79,0.55,0.73,0.54,0.55,0.28,0.32,0.18,0	85.0%
IND 97, TOR 95	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.38,0.37,0.41,0.45,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.56,0.6,0.56,0.53,0.45,0.47,0.53,0.63,0.66,0.66,0.69,0.75,0.73,0.7,0.68,0.69,0.73,0.77,0.73,0.74,0.82,0.79,0.8,0.77,0.75,0.7,0.62,0.57,0.67,0.58,0.59,0.47,0.34,0.39,0.55,0.43,0.43,0	85.0%